Upside case
Bull case
$365+246.6%
EBAY would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 42x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
eBay Inc. (EBAY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
68
analysts
32 bullish · 1 bearish · 68 covering EBAY
Strong Buy
1
Buy
31
Hold
35
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$110
+4.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$144 – $365
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
68
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $48.1B
EBAY price targets
Three scenarios for where EBAY stock could go
Current
~$105
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $105
Bear
$144
Base
$146
Bull
$365
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$146+39.2%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$144+36.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EBAY down roughly 36% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
eBay Inc.
EBAY · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
eBay operates a global online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of goods ranging from collectibles to everyday items. It generates revenue primarily through transaction fees — taking a percentage of each sale — along with listing fees and advertising services for sellers. Its key advantage is network effects from its massive user base and brand recognition as one of the original e-commerce platforms.
Market Cap
$48.1B
Revenue TTM
$11.6B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
17.6%
EBAY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.37/$1.30
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.36/$1.33
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.41/$1.35
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.66/$1.58
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.37/$1.30 | +5.4% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.36/$1.33 | +2.3% | $2.8B/$2.7B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.41/$1.35 | +4.4% | $3.0B/$2.9B | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.66/$1.58 | +5.1% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.2B
+5.5% YoY
FY2
$13.0B
+5.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.50
+23.3% YoY
FY2
$6.04
+9.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 14.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
EBAY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EBAY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Marketplaces
82.0%
+5.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.2%
+10.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Marketplaces is the largest disclosed segment at 82.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.2%, up 10.5% YoY.
EBAY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $95 — implies -8.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EBAY
24.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
EBAY
24.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+26% premium
vs EBAY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.3x
vs
5Y Average
11.8x
+105% premium
Forward PE
17.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+26%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+105%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+37%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+84%
5Y Avg
14.0x
+49%
Price/FCF
29.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+37%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+98%
5Y Avg
16.8x
+72%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+506%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+40%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
S&P 500
1.87%
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-51%
5Y Avg
1.70%
-36%
| Metric | EBAY | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg EBAY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.2x | 19.1x | 15.1x+14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.3x | 25.1x | 19.3x+26% | 11.8x+105% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.8x | 15.2x+37% | 11.3x+84% | 14.0x+49% |
| Price/FCF | 29.0x | 21.1x+37% | 14.6x+98% | 16.8x+72% |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+39% | 0.7x+506% | 3.1x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.10% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 1.70% |
EBAY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEBAY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EBAY generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 14.5% margin — 16.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+12.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
72.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
19.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
17.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.46
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
16.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.3× FCF
~3.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
44.1%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (16.8%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
5.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.15
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
457M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageEBAY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Intense Competitive Landscape
eBay faces fierce rivalry from Amazon, Temu, Shein, Etsy, StockX, and Back Market. Low barriers to entry and Amazon's Prime ecosystem reduce friction for buyers, pressuring eBay's margins and growth.
High Risk
Regulatory Compliance Burden
EU Digital Services Act and General Product Safety Regulation could raise compliance costs and expose eBay to fines up to 4% of worldwide turnover. New data privacy, AI, and antitrust laws add uncertainty.
Medium
International Market Exposure
Over 50% of eBay's GMV comes from international markets, making it vulnerable to currency swings, trade tariffs, and supply chain disruptions. Tariff risks could hit motors and parts categories, while economic downturns could slow inventory growth.
Medium
Platform & Operational Risks
Seller and buyer churn, fraud, counterfeit listings, and complex fee structures threaten user retention. AI investments must keep pace with competitors, and cybersecurity threats remain.
Medium
Profitability & Margin Pressure
eBay's non‑GAAP operating margin is projected below initial expectations, with declining EBITDA margins. Debt is manageable but significant, and any inability to meet obligations could lead to distress.
Lower
Valuation Discount
eBay trades at a discount to e‑commerce peers, reflecting concerns over slower growth and competitive position. This may limit upside potential for investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EBAY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI-Driven Marketplace Modernization
eBay is embedding AI across its platform, deploying AI-powered listing automation, visual search, and personalized recommendations. These enhancements aim to lift conversion rates and average order values, shifting the business from a legacy auction model to a dynamic, AI‑enhanced marketplace.
Recommerce Leadership & Category Expansion
The company targets high‑margin categories such as Motors, Collectibles, and Luxury goods while dominating the secondhand market. Initiatives like managed shipping, sustainability efforts, and the Depop acquisition strengthen its pre‑owned fashion position.
First‑Party Advertising Growth
Advertising revenue grew 25% in Q3 2025, with take‑rate expansion expected to drive further top‑line growth. eBay is also expanding its managed payments and shipping services to deepen its recommerce footprint.
Robust Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns
Full‑year 2025 revenue rose 8% to $11.1 billion, generating strong free cash flow that fuels share repurchases and dividends. In Q4 2025, the company returned $756 million to shareholders through buybacks and dividends.
Live‑Stream Shopping Momentum
eBay Live, its interactive live‑stream shopping platform, is accelerating customer engagement and driving incremental sales, reinforcing the company’s growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EBAY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$105.27
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$67.87
+55.1% from the low
52-Week High
$111.38
-5.5% from the high
1 Month
+7.75%
3 Month
+21.67%
YTD
+20.9%
1 Year
+49.7%
3Y CAGR
+32.1%
5Y CAGR
+12.6%
10Y CAGR
+16.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EBAY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.2x
vs 25.6x median
-33% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.5%
vs +10.0% median
-45% below peer median
Net Margin
17.6%
vs 6.9% median
+154% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBA EBAY eBay Inc. | $48.1B | 17.2x | +5.5% | 17.6% | Hold | +4.2% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.94T | 35.1x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +12.2% |
ETS ETSY Etsy, Inc. | $6.0B | 18.2x | +1.4% | 9.9% | Buy | +11.3% |
RVL RVLV Revolve Group, Inc. | $1.7B | 25.6x | +8.6% | 5.1% | Buy | +24.1% |
MEL MELI MercadoLibre, Inc. | $92.1B | 38.1x | +29.3% | 6.9% | Buy | +33.2% |
SE SE Sea Limited | $51.1B | 23.9x | +31.0% | 6.8% | Buy | +74.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EBAY Dividend and Capital Return
EBAY returns capital mainly through $2.5B/year in buybacks (5.2% buyback yield), with a modest 1.10% dividend — combining for 6.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.2%
Dividend Yield
1.10%
Payout Ratio
26.1%
How EBAY Splits Its Return
Div 1.10%
Buyback 5.2%
Dividend 1.10%Buybacks 5.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.15
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.6%
5Y Div CAGR
12.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
24M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
457M
At 5.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.62 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.16 | +7.4% | 6.2% | 7.6% |
| 2024 | $1.08 | +8.0% | 10.1% | 11.9% |
| 2023 | $1.00 | +13.6% | 6.0% | 8.3% |
| 2022 | $0.88 | +22.2% | 13.6% | 15.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsEBAY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is eBay Inc. (EBAY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
eBay Inc. (EBAY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 68 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 35 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $110, implying +4.2% from the current price of $105. The bear case scenario is $144 and the bull case is $365.
02What is the EBAY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EBAY is $110 based on 68 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $132 (+25.4% from today), and the low-end target is $94 (-10.7%). The base case model target is $146.
03Is eBay Inc. (EBAY) stock overvalued in 2026?
EBAY trades at 17.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for eBay Inc. (EBAY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EBAY in 2026 are: (1) Intense Competitive Landscape — eBay faces fierce rivalry from Amazon, Temu, Shein, Etsy, StockX, and Back Market. (2) Regulatory Compliance Burden — EU Digital Services Act and General Product Safety Regulation could raise compliance costs and expose eBay to fines up to 4% of worldwide turnover. (3) International Market Exposure — Over 50% of eBay's GMV comes from international markets, making it vulnerable to currency swings, trade tariffs, and supply chain disruptions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is eBay Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EBAY will report consensus revenue of $12.2B (+5.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.50 (+23.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.0B in revenue.
06When does eBay Inc. (EBAY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for EBAY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does eBay Inc. generate?
eBay Inc. (EBAY) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.5%. EBAY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($2.5B TTM).