Upside case
Bull case
$89+174.8%
EQNR would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 6x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Equinor ASA (EQNR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
23
analysts
7 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 covering EQNR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$37
+12.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$43 – $89
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $82.1B
EQNR price targets
Three scenarios for where EQNR stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
40 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Bear
$43
Base
$68
Bull
$89
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$68+108.6%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$43+31.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EQNR down roughly 31% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Equinor ASA
EQNR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Equinor is a Norwegian integrated energy company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets oil and natural gas while expanding into renewable energy. It generates most revenue from oil and gas production—primarily from Norwegian continental shelf operations—with additional income from refining, marketing, and emerging renewables like offshore wind. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Norway's prolific oil and gas fields, combined with government backing and decades of expertise in harsh offshore environments.
Market Cap
$82.1B
Revenue TTM
$104.2B
Net Income TTM
$5.5B
Net Margin
5.3%
EQNR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.66
Revenue
$25.3B/$23.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.57
Revenue
$26.0B/$21.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.81/$0.60
Revenue
$25.3B/$22.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.48/$1.01
Revenue
$27.8B/$28.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.66 | -3.0% | $25.3B/$23.3B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.57 | -35.1% | $26.0B/$21.4B | +21.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.81/$0.60 | +35.0% | $25.3B/$22.1B | +14.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.48/$1.01 | +46.5% | $27.8B/$28.7B | -3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$112.3B
+7.8% YoY
FY2
$116.7B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.36
+52.3% YoY
FY2
$3.64
+8.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 2.0%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.39
Expected Revenue
$34.5B
EQNR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
EQNR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $119.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude Oil
48.9%
+2.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Crude Oil is the largest disclosed segment at 48.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.7% YoY.
EQNR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $44 — implies +36.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
36.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EQNR
16.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
32% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EQNR
16.6x
vs
Energy
15.5x
+7% premium
vs EQNR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.6x
vs
5Y Average
8.4x
+99% premium
Forward PE
6.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-66%
Energy
12.5x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
-32%
Energy
15.5x
+7%
5Y Avg
8.4x
+99%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-80%
Energy
7.8x
-62%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+33%
Price/FCF
13.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
-34%
Energy
13.8x
-1%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+102%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Energy
1.4x
-45%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+0%
Dividend Yield
5.71%
S&P 500
1.91%
+198%
Energy
3.47%
+65%
5Y Avg
5.68%
+0%
| Metric | EQNR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EQNR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.3x | 18.8x-66% | 12.5x-49% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.6x | 24.4x-32% | 15.5x | 8.4x+99% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.0x | 15.2x-80% | 7.8x-62% | 2.2x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 13.7x | 20.7x-34% | 13.8x | 6.8x+102% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 1.4x-45% | 0.8x |
| Dividend Yield | 5.71% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 5.68% |
EQNR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEQNR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
EQNR 30.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 12.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$104.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
35.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$28.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
13.7× FCF
~13.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
13.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
12.9%
Dividend
5.7%
Buyback
7.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
95.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEQNR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Limited upside potential
Consensus target price implies minimal upside (-1.1% to +7.9%), suggesting limited near-term growth prospects.
High Risk
Energy transition risks
As a petroleum-focused company, Equinor faces structural risks from the global shift to renewables and low-carbon solutions.
Medium
Geopolitical exposure
Operations across 36 countries introduce risks from regulatory changes, sanctions, or instability in key markets.
Lower
Valuation uncertainty
Divergent analyst targets ($34.52-$41.20) and mixed AI forecasts reflect uncertainty about long-term performance.
High Risk
Commodity price volatility
Oil and gas revenue remains highly sensitive to unpredictable price swings in global energy markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EQNR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Global energy leadership
Equinor is a multinational energy company with operations in over 20 countries, leveraging its extensive international presence and expertise in petroleum and renewables.
Strong financial metrics
EQNR's trailing P/E of 9.43 and forward P/E of 16.31 indicate attractive valuation metrics, potentially signaling undervaluation or growth opportunities.
Renewables and low-carbon focus
Equinor is expanding its positions in renewables and low-carbon solutions, aligning with global energy transition trends and diversifying its revenue streams.
European energy contribution
The company's oil, gas, and wind power deliveries play a vital role in Europe's energy supply, reinforcing its strategic importance and market stability.
Bullish investor sentiment
Multiple bullish theses highlight EQNR's potential, driven by its operational strengths, financial performance, and strategic positioning in the energy sector.
Offshore operational expertise
Equinor is a world-leading offshore operator, with deep technical capabilities and a strong track record in petroleum and wind energy projects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EQNR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.38
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.26
+45.5% from the low
52-Week High
$43.46
-25.5% from the high
1 Month
-18.36%
3 Month
-15.96%
YTD
+31.9%
1 Year
+16.4%
3Y CAGR
+2.4%
5Y CAGR
+10.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EQNR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.3x
vs 7.4x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.8%
vs +3.8% median
+104% above peer median
Net Margin
5.3%
vs 7.0% median
-24% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EQN EQNR Equinor ASA | $82.1B | 6.3x | +7.8% | 5.3% | Hold | +12.7% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $222.2B | 7.8x | +6.8% | 7.0% | Buy | +28.9% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $179.1B | 7.3x | +2.4% | 8.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $72.0B | 9.2x | +4.1% | 3.3% | Hold | +31.4% |
EC EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $34.1B | 0.0x | +2.1% | 7.5% | Hold | -21.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EQNR Dividend and Capital Return
EQNR returns 12.9% annually — 5.71% through dividends and 7.2% through buybacks.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
12.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.2%
Dividend Yield
5.71%
Payout Ratio
95.0%
How EQNR Splits Its Return
Div 5.71%
Buyback 7.2%
Dividend 5.71%Buybacks 7.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.5%
5Y Div CAGR
20.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
183M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
At 7.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.81 | -39.7% | 9.7% | 17.5% |
| 2024 | $3.00 | -16.7% | 9.0% | 21.8% |
| 2023 | $3.60 | +114.3% | 5.8% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $1.68 | +200.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsEQNR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Equinor ASA (EQNR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $37, implying +12.7% from the current price of $32. The bear case scenario is $43 and the bull case is $89.
02What is the EQNR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EQNR is $37 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $37 (+12.7% from today), and the low-end target is $37 (+12.7%). The base case model target is $68.
03Is Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock overvalued in 2026?
EQNR trades at 6.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EQNR in 2026 are: (1) Energy transition risks — As a petroleum-focused company, Equinor faces structural risks from the global shift to renewables and low-carbon solutions. (2) Commodity price volatility — Oil and gas revenue remains highly sensitive to unpredictable price swings in global energy markets. (3) Limited upside potential — Consensus target price implies minimal upside (-1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Equinor ASA's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EQNR will report consensus revenue of $112.3B (+7.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.36 (+52.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $116.7B in revenue.
06When does Equinor ASA (EQNR) report its next earnings?
Equinor ASA is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $1.39 and revenue of $34.5B. Over recent quarters, EQNR has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Equinor ASA generate?
Equinor ASA (EQNR) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.0%. EQNR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.7% yield) and share repurchases ($5.9B TTM).