Upside case
Bull case
$246+548.0%
EQNR would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 44x more generous than today's 8x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Equinor ASA (EQNR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
23
analysts
7 bullish · 3 bearish · 23 covering EQNR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
13
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$37
-4.0% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $246
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
23
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $96.4B
EQNR price targets
Three scenarios for where EQNR stock could go
Current
~$38
Confidence
28 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $38
Base
$60
Bull
$246
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$60+57.7%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Equinor ASA
EQNR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Equinor is a Norwegian integrated energy company that explores for, produces, refines, and markets oil and natural gas while expanding into renewable energy. It generates most revenue from oil and gas production—primarily from Norwegian continental shelf operations—with additional income from refining, marketing, and emerging renewables like offshore wind. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Norway's prolific oil and gas fields, combined with government backing and decades of expertise in harsh offshore environments.
Market Cap
$96.4B
Revenue TTM
$105.8B
Net Income TTM
$5.0B
Net Margin
4.8%
EQNR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.66
Revenue
$25.3B/$23.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.57
Revenue
$26.0B/$21.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.81/$0.60
Revenue
$25.3B/$22.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.48/$1.01
Revenue
$29.1B/$28.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.66 | -3.0% | $25.3B/$23.3B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.57 | -35.1% | $26.0B/$21.4B | +21.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.81/$0.60 | +35.0% | $25.3B/$22.1B | +14.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.48/$1.01 | +46.5% | $29.1B/$28.7B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$112.3B
+5.8% YoY
FY2
$110.4B
-1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.03
+51.4% YoY
FY2
$3.07
+1.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.0B
FCF Margin: 5.7%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.01
Expected Revenue
$28.7B
EQNR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
EQNR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2023
Total disclosed revenue $121.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude Oil
47.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Crude Oil is the largest disclosed segment at 47.0% of FY 2023 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EQNR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $52 — implies +30.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
30.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EQNR
19.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
23% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EQNR
19.5x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+16% premium
vs EQNR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.5x
vs
5Y Average
8.4x
+133% premium
Forward PE
8.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-58%
Energy
13.2x
-39%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-23%
Energy
16.9x
+16%
5Y Avg
8.4x
+133%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-78%
Energy
8.1x
-59%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+50%
Price/FCF
16.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-25%
Energy
14.1x
+14%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+137%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-71%
Energy
1.6x
-42%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+18%
Dividend Yield
4.86%
S&P 500
1.88%
+159%
Energy
2.97%
+64%
5Y Avg
5.68%
-14%
| Metric | EQNR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EQNR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.0x | 19.1x-58% | 13.2x-39% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.5x | 25.2x-23% | 16.9x+16% | 8.4x+133% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.4x | 15.3x-78% | 8.1x-59% | 2.2x+50% |
| Price/FCF | 16.1x | 21.3x-25% | 14.1x+14% | 6.8x+137% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-71% | 1.6x-42% | 0.8x+18% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.86% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 5.68% |
EQNR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEQNR Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EQNR 30.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 11.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$105.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.2%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
33.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
24.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.00
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$28.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.7× FCF
~4.7 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.0%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
6.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
95.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEQNR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Production & Reserves Development
Equinor's ability to discover, acquire, and develop new reserves is critical; failure could materially reduce current production and future revenue. The company’s success in undeveloped resources is tied to oil and gas prices; sustained low prices could force deferred or abandoned projects, eroding output.
High Risk
Macro & Political Exposure
Operating in numerous jurisdictions exposes Equinor to changing political and legal environments. Policy shifts, regulatory changes, and exchange rate volatility can materially affect operations and financial results, especially given the company’s sensitivity to oil and gas price swings.
High Risk
Financial Health & Dividend Sustainability
Equinor’s Altman Z-Score sits in the “grey area,” and its high dividend payout ratio may not be sustainable. Recent earnings declines and moderate leverage raise concerns about future revenue growth and profitability, potentially impacting shareholder returns.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Landscape
The evolving regulatory environment, particularly in energy markets and environmental policy, could impose new compliance costs or operational restrictions. Unanticipated regulatory changes may increase costs or limit project approvals.
Medium
Renewable Energy Innovation Risk
Equinor’s push into low‑carbon solutions such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage faces market competitiveness challenges and uncertain access to attractive opportunities. Failure to secure technology or market foothold could limit growth in its renewable portfolio.
Medium
Climate‑Related Asset Risk
A portion of Equinor’s physical assets are classified as “stressed” or “at risk.” While carbon intensity has fallen, absolute Scope‑3 emissions have risen and are projected to stay at current levels through 2030, potentially increasing regulatory and reputational pressure.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EQNR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Europe's Energy Security Shift
Europe’s move to reduce Russian gas creates a significant opportunity for alternative suppliers. Equinor controls a substantial portion of Norway’s natural gas exports, positioning it to benefit from the structural shift and potentially elevated gas prices.
Robust Production Growth on NCS
Equinor has shown strong production growth from the Norwegian Continental Shelf, with new fields Johan Castberg and Halten East contributing significantly. The company plans to allocate a substantial portion of its capital investments to further develop the NCS, and new discoveries in the Barents Sea can be tied to existing infrastructure for high‑return production.
Favorable Commodity Price Environment
Current expectations of high oil and gas prices are highly beneficial for Equinor’s upstream operations. Tighter LNG supply and increased gas demand in Europe are expected to boost profitability.
Attractive Relative Valuation
Equinor is considered relatively cheap compared to industry averages and peers, with a lower EV/EBITDA multiple.
Strong Financial Performance & Shareholder Returns
Equinor has reported strong operational performance, with earnings per share surpassing expectations in some quarters. The company also offers a dividend yield that has been increased, providing a return to shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EQNR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$38.03
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$22.26
+70.8% from the low
52-Week High
$43.46
-12.5% from the high
1 Month
-9.34%
3 Month
+38.19%
YTD
+54.9%
1 Year
+63.4%
3Y CAGR
+8.7%
5Y CAGR
+12.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EQNR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.0x
vs 8.7x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.8%
vs -2.2% median
+360% above peer median
Net Margin
4.8%
vs 6.7% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EQN EQNR Equinor ASA | $96.4B | 8.0x | +5.8% | 4.8% | Hold | -4.0% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $116.5B | 8.7x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -1.7% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $246.8B | 8.9x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +8.6% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $200.3B | 8.5x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -16.6% |
E E Eni S.p.A. | $79.3B | 10.3x | -3.4% | 3.3% | Hold | +19.3% |
EC EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $27.5B | 0.0x | -6.2% | 7.5% | Hold | -22.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EQNR Dividend and Capital Return
EQNR returns 10.2% annually — 4.47% through dividends and 5.7% through buybacks.
Dividend At RiskFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
10.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.7%
Dividend Yield
4.47%
Payout Ratio
95.0%
How EQNR Splits Its Return
Div 4.47%
Buyback 5.7%
Dividend 4.47%Buybacks 5.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.5%
5Y Div CAGR
20.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
156M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.5B
At 6.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.76 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.81 | -39.7% | 9.7% | 17.5% |
| 2024 | $3.00 | -16.7% | 9.0% | 21.8% |
| 2023 | $3.60 | +114.3% | 5.8% | 9.3% |
| 2022 | $1.68 | +200.0% | 2.9% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsEQNR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Equinor ASA (EQNR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 13 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $37, implying -4.0% from the current price of $38.
02What is the EQNR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EQNR is $37 based on 23 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $37 (-4.0% from today), and the low-end target is $37 (-4.0%). The base case model target is $60.
03Is Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock overvalued in 2026?
EQNR trades at 8.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Equinor ASA (EQNR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EQNR in 2026 are: (1) Production & Reserves Development — Equinor's ability to discover, acquire, and develop new reserves is critical; failure could materially reduce current production and future revenue. (2) Macro & Political Exposure — Operating in numerous jurisdictions exposes Equinor to changing political and legal environments. (3) Financial Health & Dividend Sustainability — Equinor’s Altman Z-Score sits in the “grey area,” and its high dividend payout ratio may not be sustainable. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Equinor ASA's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EQNR will report consensus revenue of $112.3B (+5.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.03 (+51.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $110.4B in revenue.
06When does Equinor ASA (EQNR) report its next earnings?
Equinor ASA is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $1.01 and revenue of $28.7B. Over recent quarters, EQNR has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Equinor ASA generate?
Equinor ASA (EQNR) generated $6.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.7%. EQNR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.5% yield) and share repurchases ($5.9B TTM).