Upside case
Bull case
$115228+694882.0%
EC would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
11
analysts
3 bullish · 2 bearish · 11 covering EC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
6
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$13
-21.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$55095 – $115228
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.1B
EC price targets
Three scenarios for where EC stock could go
Current
~$17
Confidence
37 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $17
Bear
$55095
Base
$87453
Bull
$115228
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$87453+527360.6%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$55095+332200.1%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push EC down roughly 332200% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ecopetrol S.A.
EC · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Ecopetrol is Colombia's state-controlled integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and transports hydrocarbons. It generates revenue primarily from crude oil and natural gas sales (roughly 70% of total), with additional streams from refined products, petrochemicals, pipeline transportation, and power transmission. Its key advantage is its dominant position as Colombia's national oil champion—controlling the country's major pipelines and refineries—which creates significant barriers to entry and provides strategic control over the energy value chain.
Market Cap
$34.1B
Revenue TTM
$116.38T
Net Income TTM
$8.73T
Net Margin
7.5%
EC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-6.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.33
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.31/$0.00
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.22/$0.23
Revenue
$5.8B/$7.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.42/$0.54
Revenue
$7.8B/$8.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.21/$0.33 | -36.4% | $7.4B/$7.9B | -5.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.31/$0.00 | — | $7.7B/$7.2B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.22/$0.23 | -6.3% | $5.8B/$7.1B | -19.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.42/$0.54 | -21.8% | $7.8B/$8.0B | -3.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$118.87T
+2.1% YoY
FY2
$121.52T
+2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5315.49
+25.2% YoY
FY2
$6159.05
+15.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.85T
FCF Margin: 14.5%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.95
Expected Revenue
$10.6B
EC beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
EC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $40.32T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Crude oil
100.0%
-17.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Colombia
51.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Crude oil is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 17.4% YoY.
Colombia is the largest reported region at 51.9%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
EC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $81956 — implies +494207.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
494207.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EC
14.1x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
42% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
EC
14.1x
vs
Energy
15.5x
9% discount
vs EC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.1x
vs
5Y Average
0.0x
+983119% premium
Forward PE
0.0x
S&P 500
18.8x
-100%
Energy
12.5x
-100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.1x
S&P 500
24.4x
-42%
Energy
15.5x
-9%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+983119%
PEG Ratio
0.37x
S&P 500
1.66x
-78%
Energy
0.52x
-28%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-64%
Energy
7.8x
-30%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+188%
Price/FCF
7.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
-65%
Energy
13.8x
-47%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+421198%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-66%
Energy
1.4x
-25%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+586470%
Dividend Yield
9.28%
S&P 500
1.91%
+385%
Energy
3.47%
+168%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | EC | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg EC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.0x | 18.8x-100% | 12.5x-100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.1x | 24.4x-42% | 15.5x | 0.0x+983119% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.37x | 1.66x-78% | 0.52x-28% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.5x | 15.2x-64% | 7.8x-30% | 1.9x+188% |
| Price/FCF | 7.3x | 20.7x-65% | 13.8x-47% | 0.0x+421198% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-66% | 1.4x-25% | 0.0x+586470% |
| Dividend Yield | 9.28% | 1.91% | 3.47% | — |
EC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEC Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
EC generates $16.85T in free cash flow at a 14.5% margin — returns 9.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$116.38T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-12.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
22.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4246.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.85T
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.68T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$98.40T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.8× FCF
~5.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
9.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$16.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5317.20
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
130.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Oil price volatility
Prolonged weak oil prices could depress margins and investor sentiment, keeping the stock below current levels.
High Risk
Production recovery risks
Slower-than-expected production recovery may negatively impact revenue and growth projections.
High Risk
Political/fiscal policy risk
Adverse country or fiscal policy developments in Colombia could harm margins and investor confidence.
Medium
Debt and dilution risk
Net debt and potential share dilution may pressure valuation in bear-case scenarios.
Medium
Dividend sustainability
High dividend yield (10%+) may face sustainability risks if oil prices or cash flows weaken.
Lower
Regulatory compliance
Despite strong SEC filing transparency, regulatory changes could impose additional costs or restrictions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Regulatory approval for financing
Ecopetrol S.A. has obtained authorization to amend its Local Public Bond and Commercial Paper Issuance and Placement Program, enhancing financial flexibility.
Bullish analyst projections
Wall Street analysts project a 12-month price target of $14.48 (13.2% upside) and a long-term 2030 forecast of $893.26, based on bullish scenarios.
Commodity strength assumption
The bull case assumes sustained commodity price strength, which would benefit Ecopetrol's revenue and profitability.
Operational execution upside
Stronger-than-expected operational execution could lead to a re-rating toward higher global peer multiples, per the bullish thesis.
Dividend visibility improvement
Improved cash generation and higher dividend visibility are cited as potential catalysts for the stock.
Asset sales potential
Successful asset sales could unlock value and improve the company's financial position, supporting the bull case.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.58
52W Range Position
97%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.27
+100.5% from the low
52-Week High
$16.81
-1.4% from the high
1 Month
+20.06%
3 Month
+13.02%
YTD
+62.2%
1 Year
+70.4%
3Y CAGR
+17.1%
5Y CAGR
+5.5%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.0x
vs 7.4x median
-100% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.1%
vs +5.7% median
-63% below peer median
Net Margin
7.5%
vs 6.7% median
+12% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EC EC Ecopetrol S.A. | $34.1B | 0.0x | +2.1% | 7.5% | Hold | -21.6% |
PBR PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $107.9B | 4.0x | +5.7% | 21.8% | Buy | +19.4% |
YPF YPF YPF Sociedad Anónima | $19.8B | 0.0x | +13.6% | -9.4% | Buy | -5.8% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $346.5B | 12.1x | +8.6% | 6.7% | Buy | +15.3% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $584.0B | 12.5x | +5.2% | 8.9% | Hold | +23.4% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $102.1B | 7.4x | +3.8% | 1.6% | Hold | +9.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EC Dividend and Capital Return
EC returns 9.3% total yield, led by a 9.28% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
9.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
9.28%
Payout Ratio
1.3%
How EC Splits Its Return
Div 9.28%
Dividend 9.28%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5317.20
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-12.9%
5Y Div CAGR
11.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$16.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
1.0B
Approx. Share Reduction
49.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.1B
At 49.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.65 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.51 | -3.8% | 81.5% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $1.57 | -44.1% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $2.81 | +22.8% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $2.29 | +2356.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsEC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $13, implying -21.6% from the current price of $17. The bear case scenario is $55095 and the bull case is $115228.
02What is the EC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EC is $13 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $14 (-15.6% from today), and the low-end target is $12 (-27.6%). The base case model target is $87453.
03Is Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock overvalued in 2026?
EC trades at 0.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EC in 2026 are: (1) Oil price volatility — Prolonged weak oil prices could depress margins and investor sentiment, keeping the stock below current levels. (2) Production recovery risks — Slower-than-expected production recovery may negatively impact revenue and growth projections. (3) Political/fiscal policy risk — Adverse country or fiscal policy developments in Colombia could harm margins and investor confidence. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ecopetrol S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EC will report consensus revenue of $118.87T (+2.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $5315.49 (+25.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $121.52T in revenue.
06When does Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) report its next earnings?
Ecopetrol S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.95 and revenue of $10.6B. Over recent quarters, EC has beaten EPS estimates 33% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Ecopetrol S.A. generate?
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) generated $16.85T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.5%. EC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (9.3% yield) and share repurchases ($16.8B TTM).