ESTC trades 12.9% above Wall Street's consensus target of $79.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes ESTC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 36.1x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 34 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $79.50, based on estimates from 34 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $91.28, this represents a potential downside of -12.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $9.45B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $49.00 to a high of $120.00, representing a 89% spread in expectations. The median target of $74.50 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 22 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,12 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, ESTC trades at a trailing P/E of 26.6x and forward P/E of 36.1x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -29.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $52.71, with bear and bull scenarios of $33.21 and $69.45 respectively. Model confidence stands at 71/100, indicating high predictability in the company's fundamentals.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DDOGDatadog, Inc. | $89.5B | $251.49 | $274.47 | +9.1% | Buy | 99.3x | 48 |
 DTDynatrace, Inc. | $17.1B | $58.51 | $56.65 | -3.2% | Buy | 29.5x | 35 |
 MDBMongoDB, Inc. | $34.5B | $428.36 | $466.06 | +8.8% | Buy | 65.3x | 44 |
 CFLTConfluent, Inc. | $10.7B | $30.99 | $28.64 | -7.6% | Hold | 60.6x | 38 |
 GTLBGitLab Inc. | $8.3B | $49.01 | $49.71 | +1.4% | Hold | 56.6x | 30 |
 PDPagerDuty, Inc. | $1.4B | $14.83 | $12.50 | -15.7% | Hold | 13.2x | 23 |
 AMZNAmazon.com, Inc. | $2.7T | $249.27 | $326.33 | +30.9% | Buy | 19.5x | 94 |
 MSFTMicrosoft Corporation | $3.7T | $500.59 | $553.39 | +10.5% | Buy | 25.4x | 82 |
 GOOGLAlphabet Inc. | $4.1T | $337.83 | $431.57 | +27.7% | Buy | 16.4x | 83 |
 SNOWSnowflake Inc. | $116.0B | $334.81 | $418.03 | +24.9% | Buy | 151.1x | 53 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying ESTC stock.
ESTC's consensus price target is $79.5, -12.9% below the current price of $91.28. The 34 analysts tracking ESTC see downside risk at present valuations.
ESTC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 34 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 22 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $79.5 implies -12.9% downside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 36.0976x, ESTC trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $79.5 (-12.9% downside) suggests analysts may view current valuations as stretched.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $120 for ESTC, while the most conservative target is $49. The consensus of $79.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $69 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
ESTC is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 34 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 22 have Buy ratings, 12 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month ESTC stock forecast based on 34 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $79.5, with estimates ranging from $49 (bear case) to $120 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $53, with bear/bull scenarios of $33/$69.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates ESTC's fair value at $53 (base case), with a bear case of $33 and bull case of $69. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 71/100.
ESTC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 36.1x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 26.6x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on ESTC, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $79.5 (-12.9% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
ESTC analyst price targets range from $49 to $120, a 89% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $79.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $33-$69 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.