Upside case
Bull case
$200+800.8%
PAA would need investors to value it at roughly 124x earnings — about 111x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
24 bullish · 2 bearish · 42 covering PAA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
16
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
+1.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $200
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.6B
PAA price targets
Three scenarios for where PAA stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Base
$81
Bull
$200
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$81+266.5%
At 51x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.
PAA · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Plains All American Pipeline operates a vast network of crude oil and natural gas liquids infrastructure across North America. It generates fees from pipeline transportation, storage, and terminalling services — with crude oil operations contributing roughly 80% of adjusted EBITDA and NGL activities around 20%. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive, strategically located asset network that creates high barriers to entry and provides critical connectivity between major production basins and market hubs.
Market Cap
$15.6B
Revenue TTM
$44.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
3.2%
PAA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.44
Revenue
$12.0B/$14.1B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.36/$0.32
Revenue
$10.6B/$13.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.35
Revenue
$11.6B/$12.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.47
Revenue
$10.6B/$12.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.39/$0.44 | -10.5% | $12.0B/$14.1B | -15.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.36/$0.32 | +11.0% | $10.6B/$13.4B | -20.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39/$0.35 | +9.9% | $11.6B/$12.5B | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40/$0.47 | -14.9% | $10.6B/$12.9B | -17.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$47.0B
+6.1% YoY
FY2
$48.8B
+3.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.29
+12.5% YoY
FY2
$2.68
+16.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.4B
FCF Margin: 5.5%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.42
Expected Revenue
$11.6B
PAA beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PAA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $50.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
96.4%
+2.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
88.1%
+4.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 96.4% of FY 2024 revenue, up 2.7% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 88.1%, up 4.3% YoY.
PAA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $27 — implies +22.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
22.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAA
30.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+20% premium
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PAA
30.4x
vs
Energy
16.9x
+80% premium
vs PAA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.4x
vs
5Y Average
15.3x
+99% premium
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-28%
Energy
13.2x
+5%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
+20%
Energy
16.9x
+80%
5Y Avg
15.3x
+99%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-31%
Energy
8.1x
+29%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+27%
Price/FCF
8.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-61%
Energy
14.1x
-41%
5Y Avg
5.5x
+53%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-90%
Energy
1.6x
-80%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+54%
Dividend Yield
5.73%
S&P 500
1.88%
+205%
Energy
2.97%
+93%
5Y Avg
8.05%
-29%
| Metric | PAA | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 19.1x-28% | 13.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.4x | 25.2x+20% | 16.9x+80% | 15.3x+99% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.5x | 15.3x-31% | 8.1x+29% | 8.3x+27% |
| Price/FCF | 8.4x | 21.3x-61% | 14.1x-41% | 5.5x+53% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-90% | 1.6x-80% | 0.2x+54% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.73% | 1.88% | 2.97% | 8.05% |
PAA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
PAA returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$44.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
3.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
5.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$348M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
5.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.27
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
115.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
702M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Permian Basin Concentration
Plains All American Pipeline has increased its focus on the Permian Basin, which could pose significant risks if oil production in the region peaks or if there is overcapacity. This concentration heightens exposure to regional production volatility, potentially impacting revenue.
High Risk
Revenue Volatility and Commodity Prices
The company's revenue growth is strongly correlated with oil prices, leading to potential volatility. Historical data shows that declining oil prices have resulted in sharp revenue declines for PAA, and management's optimistic oil price assumptions could pose risks if actual prices fall short.
Medium
Leverage and Debt
PAA's total debt has surged, creating significant near-term financial pressure due to high leverage. Although the company has managed its debt through asset divestments, increased borrowing for acquisitions could pose future risks.
Medium
Energy Transition Risks
A heightened focus on crude oil may increase PAA's exposure to long-term energy transition risks as the global economy shifts towards renewable energy sources.
Lower
Operational Setbacks and Industry Conditions
Thin margins leave little room for operational setbacks or adverse industry conditions. Competitive pressures in crude gathering and logistics may hinder PAA's ability to expand profitability significantly.
Lower
Distribution Sustainability
With an elevated payout ratio, the sustainability of distributions is a concern. Investors should closely monitor the company's ability to maintain its distribution levels amidst financial pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Resilient Business Model
PAA operates a fee-based midstream energy infrastructure and logistics service for crude oil and natural gas liquids. This model provides steady earnings and is less exposed to commodity price volatility.
Strategic Acquisitions and Divestitures
The company's acquisition of a stake in the EPIC pipeline, financed by asset sales, strengthens its crude oil network and export exposure. The divestiture of Canadian NGL assets is expected to boost financial flexibility, with management ensuring acquisitions are accretive and create shareholder value.
Attractive Dividend Yield
PAA offers a significant dividend yield that is well-covered by its cash flow, appealing to income-focused investors. The company has a history of increasing its dividend for several years.
Undervaluation and Potential for Expansion
The stock is considered undervalued, trading at a discount to its peers on cash flow metrics. This low valuation, combined with a high starting yield, suggests potential for multiple expansion in the future.
Growth Drivers from Energy Demand
PAA could benefit from rising North American energy demand, potentially driven by AI data center growth and expanding U.S. oil exports. Limited new pipeline construction due to regulatory barriers enhances the scarcity value of PAA's existing infrastructure, potentially increasing its pricing power.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$22.17
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.69
+41.3% from the low
52-Week High
$23.04
-3.8% from the high
1 Month
+1.51%
3 Month
+14.28%
YTD
+21.7%
1 Year
+36.6%
3Y CAGR
+20.5%
5Y CAGR
+18.5%
10Y CAGR
-0.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 12.6x median
+10% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.1%
vs +6.5% median
-6% below peer median
Net Margin
3.2%
vs 11.0% median
-71% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.6B | 13.8x | +6.1% | 3.2% | Buy | +1.9% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $81.2B | 13.1x | -0.8% | 11.0% | Buy | -1.5% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $68.4B | 12.3x | +9.5% | 5.9% | Buy | -4.4% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $56.5B | 12.6x | +6.2% | 37.5% | Buy | +8.2% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.8B | 12.9x | +6.5% | 29.9% | Hold | -0.6% |
PAG PAGP Plains GP Holdings, L.P. | $4.7B | 12.5x | +6.7% | 1.2% | Buy | -3.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAA Dividend and Capital Return
PAA returns 5.7% total yield, led by a 5.73% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.73%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How PAA Splits Its Return
Div 5.73%
Dividend 5.73%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.27
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.1%
5Y Div CAGR
11.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
702M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.52 | +19.7% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.27 | +18.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $1.07 | +28.4% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| 2022 | $0.83 | +15.8% | 0.9% | 8.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying +1.9% from the current price of $22.
02What is the PAA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAA is $23 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+12.8% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-5.3%). The base case model target is $81.
03Is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAA trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAA in 2026 are: (1) Permian Basin Concentration — Plains All American Pipeline has increased its focus on the Permian Basin, which could pose significant risks if oil production in the region peaks or if there is overcapacity. (2) Revenue Volatility and Commodity Prices — The company's revenue growth is strongly correlated with oil prices, leading to potential volatility. (3) Leverage and Debt — PAA's total debt has surged, creating significant near-term financial pressure due to high leverage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAA will report consensus revenue of $47.0B (+6.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.29 (+12.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.8B in revenue.
06When does Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) report its next earnings?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $0.42 and revenue of $11.6B. Over recent quarters, PAA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. generate?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) generated $2.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 5.5%. PAA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).