Upside case
Bull case
$27+24.7%
PAA would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 3x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
42
analysts
24 bullish · 1 bearish · 42 covering PAA
Strong Buy
1
Buy
23
Hold
17
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$24
+13.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$13 – $27
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
42
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $15.1B
PAA price targets
Three scenarios for where PAA stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$13
Base
$20
Bull
$27
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$20-5.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PAA — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$13-40.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push PAA down roughly 40% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.
PAA · NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamDecember year-end
Plains All American Pipeline operates a vast network of crude oil and natural gas liquids infrastructure across North America. It generates fees from pipeline transportation, storage, and terminalling services — with crude oil operations contributing roughly 80% of adjusted EBITDA and NGL activities around 20%. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive, strategically located asset network that creates high barriers to entry and provides critical connectivity between major production basins and market hubs.
Market Cap
$15.1B
Revenue TTM
$45.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
2.5%
PAA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.36/$0.32
Revenue
$10.6B/$13.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.39/$0.35
Revenue
$11.6B/$12.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.40/$0.47
Revenue
$10.6B/$12.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.37
Revenue
$12.5B/$12.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.36/$0.32 | +11.0% | $10.6B/$13.4B | -20.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.39/$0.35 | +9.9% | $11.6B/$12.5B | -7.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.40/$0.47 | -14.9% | $10.6B/$12.9B | -17.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.39/$0.37 | +6.2% | $12.5B/$12.0B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$47.2B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$49.9B
+5.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.50
-7.5% YoY
FY2
$1.49
-0.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 4.7%
Next Earnings
August 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.41
Expected Revenue
$12.8B
PAA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
PAA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $44.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product
96.0%
-11.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.8%
-9.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product is the largest disclosed segment at 96.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 11.9% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.8%, down 9.9% YoY.
PAA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $27 — implies +24.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PAA
12.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
47% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PAA
12.9x
vs
Energy
15.5x
17% discount
vs PAA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.9x
vs
5Y Average
14.4x
11% discount
Forward PE
13.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-28%
Energy
12.5x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-47%
Energy
15.5x
-17%
5Y Avg
14.4x
-11%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Energy
0.52x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-40%
Energy
7.8x
+16%
5Y Avg
8.2x
+10%
Price/FCF
6.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-68%
Energy
13.8x
-52%
5Y Avg
5.0x
+31%
Price/Sales
0.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-89%
Energy
1.4x
-76%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+63%
Dividend Yield
7.12%
S&P 500
1.91%
+272%
Energy
3.47%
+105%
5Y Avg
7.55%
-6%
| Metric | PAA | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.5x | 18.8x-28% | 12.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.9x | 24.4x-47% | 15.5x-17% | 14.4x-11% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.52x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 15.2x-40% | 7.8x+16% | 8.2x |
| Price/FCF | 6.6x | 20.7x-68% | 13.8x-52% | 5.0x+31% |
| Price/Sales | 0.3x | 3.1x-89% | 1.4x-76% | 0.2x+63% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.12% | 1.91% | 3.47% | 7.55% |
PAA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPAA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
PAA returns 9.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-9.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
4.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.62
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.7B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.4%
Dividend
7.1%
Buyback
2.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$341M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.52
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
74.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
706M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePAA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Execution risk
Investors should monitor execution of Plains All American Pipeline's crude-centric strategy amid evolving energy dynamics, with Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2.75 billion (±$75 million) for 2026.
High Risk
Market undervaluation
The stock appears significantly undervalued relative to DCF Value and Graham Number, with an Altman Z-score potentially indicating financial distress risk.
Medium
Energy market volatility
As a midstream infrastructure company, Plains is exposed to crude oil and NGL price volatility and shifting energy demand patterns in U.S. and Canada.
Lower
Operational concentration
The company's heavy reliance on crude oil pipeline transportation and storage creates exposure to sector-specific downturns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PAA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Pure-play crude oil focus
Plains All American Pipeline is transforming into a pure-play crude oil company, which could streamline operations and enhance profitability.
Strong analyst consensus
The Wall Street consensus price target suggests an 11.4% upside potential, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts.
Integrated midstream infrastructure
The company's premier integrated midstream infrastructure connects crude oil supply to key demand centers, ensuring operational efficiency and market relevance.
Revenue and earnings growth
Analyst forecasts highlight strong revenue and earnings growth, positioning Plains All American Pipeline favorably against industry peers.
Financial health and stability
Deep fundamental analysis reveals robust financial health, making it an attractive investment opportunity in the midstream sector.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PAA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.34
52W Range Position
66%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.69
+36.0% from the low
52-Week High
$24.26
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
-7.90%
3 Month
-1.11%
YTD
+17.2%
1 Year
+15.9%
3Y CAGR
+16.9%
5Y CAGR
+14.1%
10Y CAGR
-2.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PAA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.5x
vs 12.8x median
+6% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +7.9% median
-43% below peer median
Net Margin
2.5%
vs 11.0% median
-77% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PAA PAA Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $15.1B | 13.5x | +4.4% | 2.5% | Buy | +13.8% |
EPD EPD Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $79.1B | 12.6x | +5.0% | 11.0% | Buy | +7.2% |
ET ET Energy Transfer LP | $64.5B | 12.8x | +11.1% | 6.2% | Buy | +22.7% |
MPL MPLX MPLX Lp | $57.7B | 13.2x | +8.8% | 37.5% | Buy | +6.0% |
WES WES Western Midstream Partners, LP | $16.9B | 12.4x | +7.9% | 29.9% | Hold | +7.7% |
PAG PAGP Plains GP Holdings, L.P. | $4.6B | 14.4x | -0.1% | 0.4% | Buy | +5.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PAA Dividend and Capital Return
PAA returns 9.4% total yield, led by a 7.12% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.3%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
9.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.3%
Dividend Yield
7.12%
Payout Ratio
74.6%
How PAA Splits Its Return
Div 7.12%
Buyback 2.3%
Dividend 7.12%Buybacks 2.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.52
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
22.1%
5Y Div CAGR
11.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$341M
Estimated Shares Retired
16M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
706M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.83 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.52 | +19.7% | 2.7% | 11.2% |
| 2024 | $1.27 | +18.6% | 0.0% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $1.07 | +28.4% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| 2022 | $0.83 | +15.8% | 0.9% | 8.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPAA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 42 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $24, implying +13.8% from the current price of $21. The bear case scenario is $13 and the bull case is $27.
02What is the PAA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PAA is $24 based on 42 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+26.5% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-1.6%). The base case model target is $20.
03Is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock overvalued in 2026?
PAA trades at 13.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PAA in 2026 are: (1) Market undervaluation — The stock appears significantly undervalued relative to DCF Value and Graham Number, with an Altman Z-score potentially indicating financial distress risk. (2) Execution risk — Investors should monitor execution of Plains All American Pipeline's crude-centric strategy amid evolving energy dynamics, with Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2. (3) Energy market volatility — As a midstream infrastructure company, Plains is exposed to crude oil and NGL price volatility and shifting energy demand patterns in U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PAA will report consensus revenue of $47.2B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.50 (-7.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $49.9B in revenue.
06When does Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) report its next earnings?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-14. Consensus expects EPS of $0.41 and revenue of $12.8B. Over recent quarters, PAA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. generate?
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. (PAA) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.7%. PAA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.1% yield) and share repurchases ($341M TTM).