Upside case
Bull case
$772+104.6%
FDX would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 20x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
27 bullish · 3 bearish · 49 covering FDX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
19
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$364
-3.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$235 – $772
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $88.7B
FDX price targets
Three scenarios for where FDX stock could go
Current
~$377
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $377
Bear
$235
Base
$471
Bull
$772
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$471+24.8%
At 24x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$235-37.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push FDX down roughly 38% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
FedEx Corporation
FDX · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsMay year-end
FedEx is a global logistics and transportation company that moves packages and freight worldwide through its integrated network. It generates revenue primarily from its express shipping segment (~40% of revenue), ground delivery services (~30%), and freight transportation (~20%), with the remainder from supply chain and other services. The company's key advantage is its massive, integrated global network of planes, trucks, and facilities—a physical infrastructure moat that's extremely difficult and costly for competitors to replicate.
Market Cap
$88.7B
Revenue TTM
$91.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.5B
Net Margin
4.9%
FDX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$6.07/$5.82
Revenue
$22.2B/$21.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.83/$3.60
Revenue
$22.2B/$21.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.82/$4.12
Revenue
$23.5B/$22.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.25/$4.15
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $6.07/$5.82 | +4.3% | $22.2B/$21.7B | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.83/$3.60 | +6.4% | $22.2B/$21.6B | +2.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.82/$4.12 | +17.0% | $23.5B/$22.8B | +3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.25/$4.15 | +26.5% | $24.0B/$23.5B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$93.1B
+1.3% YoY
FY2
$95.4B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.43
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$20.98
+8.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FDX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FDX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Federal Express Segment
82.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.6%
-1.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Federal Express Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 82.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.6%, down 1.0% YoY.
FDX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $598 — implies +51.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
51.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FDX
22.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
11% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FDX
22.4x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
13% discount
vs FDX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.4x
vs
5Y Average
14.7x
+52% premium
Forward PE
19.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+0%
Industrials
20.8x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.4x
S&P 500
25.2x
-11%
Industrials
25.9x
-13%
5Y Avg
14.7x
+52%
PEG Ratio
0.80x
S&P 500
1.75x
-54%
Industrials
1.59x
-49%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-24%
Industrials
13.9x
-16%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+25%
Price/FCF
29.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+39%
Industrials
20.6x
+44%
5Y Avg
19.7x
+51%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-68%
Industrials
1.6x
-37%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+40%
Dividend Yield
1.46%
S&P 500
1.88%
-22%
Industrials
1.24%
+18%
5Y Avg
1.75%
-17%
| Metric | FDX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FDX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.1x | 19.1x | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.4x | 25.2x-11% | 25.9x-13% | 14.7x+52% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.80x | 1.75x-54% | 1.59x-49% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7x | 15.3x-24% | 13.9x-16% | 9.3x+25% |
| Price/FCF | 29.8x | 21.3x+39% | 20.6x+44% | 19.7x+51% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-68% | 1.6x-37% | 0.7x+40% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.46% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.75% |
FDX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFDX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FDX returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$91.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$18.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.3× FCF
~7.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
1.5%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.51
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
243M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFDX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturn Impact
FedEx’s revenue is tightly linked to global economic activity. A slowdown, especially in the U.S., can sharply reduce shipping demand from businesses and consumers, directly hurting operating results.
High Risk
Fuel Cost Risk
Fuel prices are a major operating expense for FedEx. Continuous increases in fuel costs can erode margins even if fuel surcharges are applied, potentially leading to higher shipment costs and customer dissatisfaction.
High Risk
High Debt Load
FedEx carries a relatively high debt‑to‑equity ratio, making it vulnerable to interest rate hikes. Rising borrowing costs could strain cash flow and limit the company’s ability to invest in growth.
Medium
Intense Competition
FedEx competes with UPS, DHL, and Amazon’s expanding logistics network. E‑commerce growth and the need for rapid delivery intensify pressure on market share, especially in key regions.
Medium
Supply Chain Disruptions
The company faces disruptions from weather, international procedures, and internal operational issues such as facility overloads or technical failures. These can delay deliveries and erode customer trust.
Medium
Market Volatility Risk
FedEx’s beta exceeds 1.3, indicating higher sensitivity to market swings. Historically, the stock has suffered larger drawdowns during growth‑and‑demand scare events compared to the broader market.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FDX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Cost Savings from DRIVE & Network 2.0
FedEx’s DRIVE and Network 2.0 restructuring initiatives are projected to deliver roughly $1 billion in cost savings by the end of calendar 2026, with an additional $2 billion expected by the end of 2027. These savings should translate into improved operating margins and stronger earnings power.
Freight Spin‑off Unlocks Value
The planned June 2026 spin‑off of FedEx Freight is viewed as a major catalyst for unlocking shareholder value. Separating the more cyclical freight business allows FedEx to focus on its core operations and potentially unlock higher valuation multiples.
Strong Q3 FY2026 Earnings
In the third quarter of fiscal 2026, FedEx reported earnings per share of $5.25, beating analyst expectations. The company also raised its full‑year revenue growth outlook, signaling continued top‑line momentum.
Margin Expansion from Cost Base Improvements
FedEx is actively working to improve its cost base, with operational rollouts appearing to be on track. These initiatives are expected to lead to visible margin expansion in the coming periods.
AI‑Driven Logistics Investments
Strategic investments in AI‑driven logistics and fleet efficiency are positioning FedEx for future growth and profitability. These technologies aim to enhance operational efficiency and reduce long‑term costs.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FDX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$377.19
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$212.64
+77.4% from the low
52-Week High
$404.03
-6.6% from the high
1 Month
+5.11%
3 Month
+2.16%
YTD
+28.7%
1 Year
+76.7%
3Y CAGR
+17.8%
5Y CAGR
+3.9%
10Y CAGR
+8.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FDX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.1x
vs 38.2x median
-50% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.3%
vs +3.3% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
4.9%
vs 5.9% median
-18% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $88.7B | 19.1x | +1.3% | 4.9% | Buy | -3.4% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $84.9B | 14.1x | +0.0% | 5.9% | Hold | +15.4% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $24.8B | 44.9x | +3.3% | 4.2% | Buy | -1.2% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $41.8B | 38.2x | +0.3% | 18.6% | Hold | +3.8% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $12.0B | 42.3x | +4.5% | 7.8% | Buy | -5.9% |
JBH JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $23.3B | 33.6x | +3.4% | 5.0% | Buy | -8.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FDX Dividend and Capital Return
FDX returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.46% dividend — combining for 4.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
1.46%
Payout Ratio
32.7%
How FDX Splits Its Return
Div 1.46%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 1.46%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.51
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.9%
5Y Div CAGR
17.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
243M
At 3.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.73 | +6.1% | 5.7% | 8.2% |
| 2024 | $5.40 | +9.5% | 3.9% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $4.93 | +17.4% | 2.7% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $4.20 | +44.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsFDX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $364, implying -3.4% from the current price of $377. The bear case scenario is $235 and the bull case is $772.
02What is the FDX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FDX is $364 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $479 (+27.0% from today), and the low-end target is $210 (-44.3%). The base case model target is $471.
03Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock overvalued in 2026?
FDX trades at 19.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FDX in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturn Impact — FedEx’s revenue is tightly linked to global economic activity. (2) Fuel Cost Risk — Fuel prices are a major operating expense for FedEx. (3) High Debt Load — FedEx carries a relatively high debt‑to‑equity ratio, making it vulnerable to interest rate hikes. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is FedEx Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FDX will report consensus revenue of $93.1B (+1.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.43 (+5.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $95.4B in revenue.
06When does FedEx Corporation (FDX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FDX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does FedEx Corporation generate?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. FDX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.5% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).