Upside case
Bull case
$568+74.0%
FDX would need investors to value it at roughly 29x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
FedEx Corporation (FDX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
49
analysts
28 bullish · 3 bearish · 49 covering FDX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
28
Hold
18
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$343
+5.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$271 – $568
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
49
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $77.8B
FDX price targets
Three scenarios for where FDX stock could go
Current
~$326
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $326
Bear
$271
Base
$431
Bull
$568
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$431+32.1%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$271-16.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push FDX down roughly 17% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
FedEx Corporation
FDX · NYSEIndustrialsIntegrated Freight & LogisticsMay year-end
FedEx is a global logistics and transportation company that moves packages and freight worldwide through its integrated network. It generates revenue primarily from its express shipping segment (~40% of revenue), ground delivery services (~30%), and freight transportation (~20%), with the remainder from supply chain and other services. The company's key advantage is its massive, integrated global network of planes, trucks, and facilities—a physical infrastructure moat that's extremely difficult and costly for competitors to replicate.
Market Cap
$77.8B
Revenue TTM
$91.9B
Net Income TTM
$4.5B
Net Margin
4.9%
FDX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$6.07/$5.82
Revenue
$22.2B/$21.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.83/$3.60
Revenue
$22.2B/$21.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.82/$4.07
Revenue
$23.5B/$22.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$5.25/$3.34
Revenue
$24.0B/$23.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $6.07/$5.82 | +4.3% | $22.2B/$21.7B | +2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.83/$3.60 | +6.4% | $22.2B/$21.6B | +2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.82/$4.07 | +18.4% | $23.5B/$22.8B | +3.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.25/$3.34 | +57.2% | $24.0B/$23.5B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$94.1B
+2.3% YoY
FY2
$96.9B
+3.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$19.65
+6.5% YoY
FY2
$21.41
+8.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.4B
FCF Margin: 4.8%
Next Earnings
June 23, 2026
Expected EPS
$5.90
Expected Revenue
$24.0B
FDX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FDX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $28.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Federal Express Segment
82.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
71.6%
-1.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Federal Express Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 82.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 71.6%, down 1.0% YoY.
FDX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $722 — implies +121.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
121.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FDX
19.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
21% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FDX
19.4x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
24% discount
vs FDX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
19.4x
vs
5Y Average
11.9x
+64% premium
Forward PE
16.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
-13%
Industrials
21.2x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
19.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-21%
Industrials
25.6x
-24%
5Y Avg
11.9x
+64%
PEG Ratio
0.69x
S&P 500
1.66x
-58%
Industrials
1.65x
-58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-30%
Industrials
13.9x
-24%
5Y Avg
8.1x
+31%
Price/FCF
26.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+26%
Industrials
20.0x
+30%
5Y Avg
15.9x
+65%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-71%
Industrials
1.6x
-43%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+53%
Dividend Yield
1.69%
S&P 500
1.91%
-12%
Industrials
1.21%
+39%
5Y Avg
2.17%
-22%
| Metric | FDX | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FDX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.4x | 18.8x-13% | 21.2x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 19.4x | 24.4x-21% | 25.6x-24% | 11.9x+64% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.69x | 1.66x-58% | 1.65x-58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.6x | 15.2x-30% | 13.9x-24% | 8.1x+31% |
| Price/FCF | 26.1x | 20.7x+26% | 20.0x+30% | 15.9x+65% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-71% | 1.6x-43% | 0.6x+53% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.69% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 2.17% |
FDX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFDX Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FDX returns 5.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$91.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
6.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$18.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$4.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
4.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$31.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.3× FCF
~7.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
3.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.51
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
32.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
239M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFDX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Market sensitivity to shocks
FedEx has historically underperformed the S&P 500 during systemic shocks, with an average drawdown of -23% compared to -16% for the broader market.
Medium
Limited upside potential
Consensus target price implies only -3.1% upside, suggesting limited near-term growth prospects.
Medium
Freight segment risks
Heavy reliance on freight services exposes FedEx to cyclical demand fluctuations and competitive pressures in logistics.
Lower
Tracking system dependency
Operational efficiency heavily depends on package tracking systems, where disruptions could impact customer satisfaction.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FDX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Narrow moat advantage
FedEx Corporation has a narrow moat, indicating a competitive advantage in air freight and logistics, supported by institutional ownership like Vanguard Group.
Global logistics leader
FedEx operates globally in air freight and logistics through its Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments, positioning it as a large-cap industrial leader.
Integrated digital network
The company's fully integrated digital and physical network enhances its ability to provide high-value-added logistics and transportation services.
Dividend-paying stock
FedEx is a dividend-paying stock, appealing to income-focused investors in the industrials sector.
Freight delivery innovation
FedEx Freight Direct offers flexible scheduling and multiple service tiers, catering to heavy shipments and enhancing convenience for customers.
Bullish Wall Street debate
Analysts highlight FedEx's strong catalysts and business model in investment memos, with full DCF and price targets available for deeper analysis.
Tracking and convenience tools
FedEx provides robust tracking services and tools for shippers and small businesses, improving customer experience and operational efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FDX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$326.20
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$174.01
+87.5% from the low
52-Week High
$345.37
-5.6% from the high
1 Month
+9.57%
3 Month
+15.83%
YTD
+38.2%
1 Year
+81.4%
3Y CAGR
+20.5%
5Y CAGR
+7.3%
10Y CAGR
+9.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FDX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.4x
vs 38.3x median
-57% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.3%
vs +4.6% median
-49% below peer median
Net Margin
4.9%
vs 5.9% median
-18% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FDX FDX FedEx Corporation | $77.8B | 16.4x | +2.3% | 4.9% | Buy | +5.2% |
UPS UPS United Parcel Service, Inc. | $89.2B | 14.8x | +1.1% | 5.9% | Hold | +9.7% |
XPO XPO XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.4B | 40.5x | +7.4% | 4.2% | Buy | +10.3% |
ODF ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $46.1B | 40.5x | +3.4% | 18.6% | Hold | -1.6% |
SAI SAIA Saia, Inc. | $11.6B | 38.3x | +7.2% | 7.8% | Buy | +3.1% |
JBH JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | $25.7B | 36.8x | +4.6% | 5.0% | Buy | -12.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FDX Dividend and Capital Return
FDX returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (3.9% buyback yield), with a modest 1.69% dividend — combining for 5.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.9%
Dividend Yield
1.69%
Payout Ratio
32.7%
How FDX Splits Its Return
Div 1.69%
Buyback 3.9%
Dividend 1.69%Buybacks 3.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.51
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.0%
5Y Div CAGR
17.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
239M
At 3.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.39 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $4.61 | +6.2% | 7.1% | 10.2% |
| 2024 | $4.34 | +9.5% | 4.9% | 7.3% |
| 2023 | $3.96 | +17.4% | 3.3% | 6.0% |
| 2022 | $3.38 | +44.8% | 4.7% | 6.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFDX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, 28 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $343, implying +5.2% from the current price of $326. The bear case scenario is $271 and the bull case is $568.
02What is the FDX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FDX is $343 based on 49 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $479 (+46.8% from today), and the low-end target is $155 (-52.5%). The base case model target is $431.
03Is FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock overvalued in 2026?
FDX trades at 16.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FDX in 2026 are: (1) Market sensitivity to shocks — FedEx has historically underperformed the S&P 500 during systemic shocks, with an average drawdown of -23% compared to -16% for the broader market. (2) Limited upside potential — Consensus target price implies only -3. (3) Freight segment risks — Heavy reliance on freight services exposes FedEx to cyclical demand fluctuations and competitive pressures in logistics. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is FedEx Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FDX will report consensus revenue of $94.1B (+2.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $19.65 (+6.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $96.9B in revenue.
06When does FedEx Corporation (FDX) report its next earnings?
FedEx Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-23. Consensus expects EPS of $5.90 and revenue of $24.0B. Over recent quarters, FDX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does FedEx Corporation generate?
FedEx Corporation (FDX) generated $4.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.8%. FDX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).