Upside case
Bull case
$219+227.0%
FER would need investors to value it at roughly 220x earnings — about 153x more generous than today's 67x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 15, 2026
Ferrovial SE (FER) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
2
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 covering FER
Strong Buy
0
Buy
1
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$71
+6.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$145 – $219
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
2
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
67.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $48.2B
FER price targets
Three scenarios for where FER stock could go
Current
~$67
Confidence
42 / 100
Updated
May 15, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $67
Bear
$145
Base
$208
Bull
$219
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$208+210.5%
At 209x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$145+117.3%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push FER down roughly 117% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ferrovial SE
FER · NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Infrastructure OperationsDecember year-end
Ferrovial is a global infrastructure operator that designs, builds, finances, and manages transportation assets like toll roads and airports. It generates revenue through construction contracts and long-term concessions—with toll roads and airports being its largest segments—where it collects user fees over decades-long contracts. The company's competitive advantage lies in its integrated lifecycle approach—from design to long-term operation—and its expertise in securing and managing complex public-private partnerships.
Market Cap
$48.2B
Revenue TTM
$9.3B
Net Income TTM
$3.4B
Net Margin
36.0%
FER Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
88%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+293.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/—
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.44/—
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.34/$-0.18
Revenue
$3.2B/$2.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.34/—
Revenue
$3.2B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/— | — | $2.6B/$2.5B | +4.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.44/— | — | $2.6B/$2.5B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.34/$-0.18 | +293.3% | $3.2B/$2.4B | +35.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.34/— | — | $3.2B/$2.4B | +35.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$10.0B
+7.2% YoY
FY2
$10.7B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.26
-8.9% YoY
FY2
$4.45
+4.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$925M
FCF Margin: 9.9%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FER beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FER Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Other countries
52.9%
-24.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other countries is the largest reported region at 52.9%, down 24.3% YoY.
FER Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $50 — implies -25.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
25.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FER
46.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.5x
+91% premium
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
FER
46.7x
vs
Industrials
24.9x
+88% premium
vs FER 5Y Avg P/E
Today
46.7x
vs
5Y Average
51.0x
8% discount
Forward PE
67.4x
S&P 500
18.4x
+265%
Industrials
20.5x
+229%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
46.7x
S&P 500
24.5x
+91%
Industrials
24.9x
+88%
5Y Avg
51.0x
-8%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.67x
—
Industrials
1.50x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
28.7x
S&P 500
15.1x
+90%
Industrials
13.3x
+116%
5Y Avg
24.6x
+17%
Price/FCF
23.8x
S&P 500
20.9x
+14%
Industrials
19.3x
+23%
5Y Avg
25.4x
-6%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.0x
+41%
Industrials
1.5x
+186%
5Y Avg
3.3x
+30%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
S&P 500
1.91%
-80%
Industrials
1.34%
-72%
5Y Avg
0.43%
-13%
| Metric | FER | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg FER |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 67.4x | 18.4x+265% | 20.5x+229% | — |
| Trailing PE | 46.7x | 24.5x+91% | 24.9x+88% | 51.0x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.67x | 1.50x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 28.7x | 15.1x+90% | 13.3x+116% | 24.6x+17% |
| Price/FCF | 23.8x | 20.9x+14% | 19.3x+23% | 25.4x |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.0x+41% | 1.5x+186% | 3.3x+30% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% | 1.91% | 1.34% | 0.43% |
FER trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFER Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
FER generates $925M in free cash flow at a 9.9% margin — returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
87.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
36.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.67
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$925M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$6.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.0× FCF
~7.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.7%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (6.1%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$501M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
17.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
721M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageFER Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Compliance Costs
FirstEnergy faced a FERC audit that reclassified transmission capital assets to operating expenses, increasing its cost base. Ongoing PUCO rate‑base treatment reviews could further raise compliance costs, potentially eroding margins.
High Risk
Cybersecurity & Physical Threats
The company’s heavy reliance on IT systems exposes it to cyber‑attacks, data breaches, and physical threats such as terrorism or sabotage, which could disrupt operations and compromise customer data.
High Risk
Financial Leverage & Debt Risk
FirstEnergy’s leverage exceeds that of its peers, amplifying interest obligations. A prior subsidiary bankruptcy underscores the importance of managing debt load to avoid liquidity strain.
Medium
Pandemic‑Related Customer Vulnerability
FirstEnergy’s customer base is largely blue‑collar, making it more susceptible to pandemic‑related lockdowns and economic downturns, which could reduce demand and revenue.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FER Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Outperformance Momentum vs Benchmarks
Ferrovial’s share price has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past quarter and year, and has also eclipsed the FTSE Global All Cap Index. This sustained relative strength signals robust demand for the company’s infrastructure assets.
Upward Earnings Revision & Fiscal Outlook
Full‑year earnings estimates have been revised upward, and analysts project a positive earnings trajectory for the next fiscal year. This reflects confidence in the company’s project pipeline and cost‑control initiatives.
Analyst Upgrades & Strong Buy Rating
While the consensus rating remains a Hold, several analysts have upgraded the stock to Buy, and the average 12‑month outlook indicates potential upside. These upgrades underscore growing analyst confidence.
Long‑Term Price Growth Models
Some models forecast significant price increases for FER by the end of 2026 and again in 2030, driven by expected infrastructure demand and expansion plans. These projections highlight a bullish long‑term trajectory.
Zacks Strong Buy & Momentum Score
Ferrovial is rated #1 (Strong Buy) by Zacks, with a Momentum Score of B, indicating strong short‑term price momentum and positive analyst sentiment.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FER Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$66.89
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$49.56
+35.0% from the low
52-Week High
$74.79
-10.6% from the high
1 Month
-6.17%
3 Month
-7.97%
YTD
+3.6%
1 Year
+33.7%
3Y CAGR
+31.0%
5Y CAGR
+17.3%
10Y CAGR
+12.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FER vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
67.4x
vs 39.4x median
+71% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.2%
vs +15.4% median
-53% below peer median
Net Margin
36.0%
vs 3.2% median
+1038% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FER FER Ferrovial SE | $48.2B | 67.4x | +7.2% | 36.0% | Buy | +6.0% |
ROA ROAD Construction Partners, Inc. | $6.6B | 39.4x | +37.0% | 3.9% | Buy | +24.0% |
ACM ACM Aecom | $9.2B | 11.9x | -7.7% | 3.2% | Buy | +61.1% |
PWR PWR Quanta Services, Inc. | $115.5B | 55.0x | +17.8% | 3.7% | Buy | -13.6% |
J J Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $13.0B | 15.3x | -4.5% | 3.0% | Buy | +40.8% |
MTZ MTZ MasTec, Inc. | $32.7B | 47.1x | +15.4% | 3.0% | Buy | +0.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FER Dividend and Capital Return
FER returns capital mainly through $501M/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.38% dividend — combining for 1.6% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
Payout Ratio
17.6%
How FER Splits Its Return
Div 0.38%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.38%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.0%
5Y Div CAGR
12.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$501M
Estimated Shares Retired
7M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
721M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $1.01 | +16.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% |
| 2024 | $0.86 | +20.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $0.72 | +3.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| 2022 | $0.70 | +17.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% |
| 2021 | $0.59 | +3.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFER Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ferrovial SE (FER) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ferrovial SE (FER) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 2 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $71, implying +6.0% from the current price of $67. The bear case scenario is $145 and the bull case is $219.
02What is the FER stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FER is $71 based on 2 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $71 (+6.0% from today), and the low-end target is $71 (+6.0%). The base case model target is $208.
03Is Ferrovial SE (FER) stock overvalued in 2026?
FER trades at 67.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ferrovial SE (FER) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FER in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Compliance Costs — FirstEnergy faced a FERC audit that reclassified transmission capital assets to operating expenses, increasing its cost base. (2) Cybersecurity & Physical Threats — The company’s heavy reliance on IT systems exposes it to cyber‑attacks, data breaches, and physical threats such as terrorism or sabotage, which could disrupt operations and compromise customer data. (3) Financial Leverage & Debt Risk — FirstEnergy’s leverage exceeds that of its peers, amplifying interest obligations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ferrovial SE's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FER will report consensus revenue of $10.0B (+7.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.26 (-8.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.7B in revenue.
06When does Ferrovial SE (FER) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FER is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ferrovial SE generate?
Ferrovial SE (FER) generated $925M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.9%. FER returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($501M TTM).