First Merchants Corporation (FRME) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jun 26, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 12 analysts12.2% Below Target
FRME trades 12.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $49.00.
Current Price$43.68
Average Target$49.00
Low$49.00
Median$49.00
High$49.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E12.0x
(Value)
PEG Ratio1.66
(Fair)
Implied Growth+12.0%
(Moderate)
Analyst Spread0.0%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes FRME achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 12.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 12 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
FRME Price Target Analysis
Updated June 28, 2026As of June 28, 2026, First Merchants Corporation (FRME) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $49.00, based on estimates from 12 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $43.68, this represents a potential upside of +12.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.75B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $49.00 to a high of $49.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $49.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 10 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, FRME trades at a trailing P/E of 11.3x and forward P/E of 12.0x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.66 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +12.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $47.16, with bear and bull scenarios of $29.71 and $62.14 respectively. Model confidence stands at 47/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+6.0%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
12.9x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WTFCWintrust Financial Corporation | $10.9B | $161.31 | $174.57 | +8.2% | Buy | 12.4x | 22 |
 IBCPIndependent Bank Corporation | $747M | $36.23 | $38.00 | +4.9% | Hold | 10.2x | 7 |
 FFINFirst Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $5.0B | $35.24 | $39.25 | +11.4% | Hold | 17.3x | 15 |
 MBWMMercantile Bank Corporation | $986M | $57.09 | $58.50 | +2.5% | Buy | 10.5x | 7 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.6B | $49.59 | $56.00 | +12.9% | Hold | 11.9x | 10 |
 FULTFulton Financial Corporation | $4.6B | $24.21 | $23.50 | -2.9% | Hold | 11.9x | 20 |
 HBANHuntington Bancshares Incorporated | $36.1B | $17.79 | $20.33 | +14.3% | Buy | 12.0x | 48 |
 ONBOld National Bancorp | $10.0B | $25.88 | $27.17 | +5.0% | Hold | 9.9x | 22 |
 FITBFifth Third Bancorp | $51.0B | $56.31 | $57.50 | +2.1% | Buy | 18.4x | 51 |
 CBSHCommerce Bancshares, Inc. | $8.4B | $57.79 | $58.50 | +1.2% | Hold | 14.1x | 15 |
FRME — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying FRME stock.
What is the FRME stock price target for 2026?
First Merchants Corporation (FRME) has a consensus 12-month price target of $49, implying 12.2% upside from $43.68. The 12 analysts covering FRME see moderate appreciation potential.
Is FRME a buy, sell, or hold?
FRME has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 10 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $49 implies 12.2% upside from current levels.
Is FRME stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 11.9671x, FRME trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $49 implies 12.2% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can FRME stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $49 for FRME, while the most conservative target is $49. The consensus of $49 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $62 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover FRME stock?
FRME is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 10 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the FRME stock forecast?
The 12-month FRME stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $49, with estimates ranging from $49 (bear case) to $49 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $47, with bear/bull scenarios of $30/$62.
What is FRME's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates FRME's fair value at $47 (base case), with a bear case of $30 and bull case of $62. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 47/100.
What is FRME's forward P/E ratio?
FRME trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 11.3x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy FRME stock?
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on FRME, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $49 price target (12.2% upside). 10 of 12 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do FRME price targets vary so much?
FRME analyst price targets range from $49 to $49, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $49 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $30-$62 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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