Upside case
Bull case
$60+24.4%
GLPI would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
18 bullish · 2 bearish · 27 covering GLPI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
7
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$51
+6.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$32 – $60
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.6B
GLPI price targets
Three scenarios for where GLPI stock could go
Current
~$48
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $48
Bear
$32
Base
$49
Bull
$60
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$49+1.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing GLPI — at roughly 15x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$32-33.2%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push GLPI down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.
GLPI · NASDAQReal EstateREIT - SpecialtyDecember year-end
Gaming and Leisure Properties is a real estate investment trust that owns and leases gaming facilities to casino operators. It generates revenue primarily through triple-net lease agreements—where tenants pay rent plus property taxes, insurance, and maintenance—with Penn Entertainment being its largest tenant at roughly 60% of rental income. The company's moat comes from its specialized portfolio of gaming real estate assets and long-term leases with established operators in regulated markets.
Market Cap
$13.6B
Revenue TTM
$1.6B
Net Income TTM
$892M
Net Margin
57.3%
GLPI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.96/$0.96
Revenue
$395M/$401M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.96
Revenue
$398M/$406M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.95/$0.76
Revenue
$407M/$405M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.02/$0.79
Revenue
$420M/$409M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.96/$0.96 | +0.0% | $395M/$401M | -1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.96 | +1.0% | $398M/$406M | -2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.95/$0.76 | +25.8% | $407M/$405M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.02/$0.79 | +29.0% | $420M/$409M | +2.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.7B
+6.3% YoY
FY2
$1.7B
+5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.89
-9.2% YoY
FY2
$2.98
+3.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$585M
FCF Margin: 37.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
GLPI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
GLPI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $196M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Real Estate
100.0%
+5.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Real Estate is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.5% YoY.
GLPI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $58 — implies +21.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
GLPI
16.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
35% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
GLPI
16.3x
vs
Real Estate
24.3x
33% discount
vs GLPI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.3x
vs
5Y Average
18.1x
10% discount
Forward PE
15.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-21%
Real Estate
26.5x
-43%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-35%
Real Estate
24.3x
-33%
5Y Avg
18.1x
-10%
PEG Ratio
3.25x
S&P 500
1.75x
+86%
Real Estate
1.22x
+167%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-6%
Real Estate
16.7x
-15%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-3%
Price/FCF
16.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-23%
Real Estate
15.7x
+5%
5Y Avg
14.2x
+16%
Price/Sales
8.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+172%
Real Estate
3.0x
+180%
5Y Avg
9.0x
-5%
Dividend Yield
6.48%
S&P 500
1.88%
+245%
Real Estate
4.67%
+39%
5Y Avg
6.20%
+5%
| Metric | GLPI | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg GLPI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.0x | 19.1x-21% | 26.5x-43% | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.3x | 25.2x-35% | 24.3x-33% | 18.1x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.25x | 1.75x+86% | 1.22x+167% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.3x | 16.7x-15% | 14.8x |
| Price/FCF | 16.5x | 21.3x-23% | 15.7x | 14.2x+16% |
| Price/Sales | 8.5x | 3.1x+172% | 3.0x+180% | 9.0x |
| Dividend Yield | 6.48% | 1.88% | 4.67% | 6.20% |
GLPI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolGLPI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
GLPI pays 6.5% total shareholder yield with 82.0% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
82.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
57.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.19
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
82.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$224M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.6B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
12.9× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
17.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.5%
Dividend
6.5%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.11
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
105.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
283M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageGLPI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Tenant Concentration Risk
A significant portion of GLPI's properties are leased to a limited number of casino operators, notably PENN Entertainment. This reliance means that adverse events affecting these key tenants, such as financial distress or regulatory penalties, could materially impact GLPI's rental income and overall stability.
High Risk
Elevated Debt Levels
As of March 31, 2026, GLPI carried approximately $8.16 billion in long-term debt, with a Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio of about 5.11x, which is on the higher end for REITs. Rising interest rates could increase financing costs and limit refinancing abilities, potentially impacting Funds From Operations (FFO).
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
GLPI's dependence on external capital for growth makes it sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Elevated interest rates can tighten the spread between acquisition yields and financing costs, limiting growth and impacting the company's valuation multiples.
Medium
Regulatory and Industry Risks
The gaming industry faces significant regulatory scrutiny, with potential changes in regulations or tax increases that could pressure operators. Additionally, the rise of iGaming platforms poses a disruption risk, potentially diminishing the market share of traditional casinos.
Medium
Economic Downturns
GLPI is exposed to economic downturns that can adversely affect consumer spending on discretionary activities like gaming. Such downturns may lead to reduced foot traffic at gaming facilities, impacting tenant revenues and GLPI's rental income.
Lower
Macroeconomic Pressures
Factors such as inflation and prolonged high interest rates could pressure expansion economics for GLPI. While the company has a strong growth pipeline, these macro risks may affect the profitability of new projects.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why GLPI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Record Financial Results
GLPI reported record first-quarter 2026 results, with revenues reaching $420 million and net income at $239.4 million. Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) increased by 9.2% year-over-year to $297.1 million, and the company's earnings per share (EPS) of $0.82 surpassed analyst expectations of $0.77.
Robust Pipeline and Development
Management highlighted a pipeline of approximately $1.8 billion in capital commitments through 2027, with plans for $750 million to $800 million in development spend for 2026. This includes strategic acquisitions like the Bally's Lincoln acquisition and commitments for Live! Virginia, signaling continued expansion.
Triple-Net Lease Model
GLPI's business model involves acquiring, financing, and owning real estate properties leased to gaming operators under triple-net lease arrangements. This structure provides a steady stream of rental income, with tenants responsible for property taxes, insurance, and maintenance, minimizing operational risks.
Undervaluation and Attractive Valuation Metrics
Several analyses suggest GLPI is undervalued, with a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis indicating a fair value of around $83.50, significantly higher than its trading price. The company trades at a lower P/E ratio of 15x compared to its industry peers, with a GF Value™ of $49.93 suggesting upside potential.
Dividend Growth
GLPI has a history of increasing its dividends for multiple consecutive years, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. This consistent dividend growth reflects the company's strong financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Strong Lease Coverage
The majority of GLPI's leases have rent coverage exceeding 1.8x, indicating tenant stability and the ability to sustain rental income even in challenging market conditions. This strong lease coverage enhances the predictability of cash flows.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
GLPI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.04
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$41.17
+16.7% from the low
52-Week High
$49.95
-3.8% from the high
1 Month
+6.38%
3 Month
+6.00%
YTD
+8.1%
1 Year
+3.3%
3Y CAGR
-2.2%
5Y CAGR
+1.1%
10Y CAGR
+3.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
GLPI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.0x
vs 29.3x median
-49% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.3%
vs +6.1% median
+3% above peer median
Net Margin
57.3%
vs 26.0% median
+120% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLP GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | $13.6B | 15.0x | +6.3% | 57.3% | Buy | +6.5% |
VIC VICI VICI Properties Inc. | $30.6B | 10.0x | +10.5% | 76.7% | Buy | +11.7% |
MPW MPW Medical Properties Trust, Inc. | $3.4B | 49.4x | -5.2% | -20.4% | Hold | -11.5% |
NNN NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $8.5B | 21.8x | +6.1% | 41.4% | Hold | +3.0% |
WPC WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | $16.2B | 29.3x | +4.8% | 26.0% | Hold | -0.9% |
O O Realty Income Corporation | $59.7B | 38.5x | +11.5% | 13.5% | Hold | +1.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
GLPI Dividend and Capital Return
GLPI returns 6.5% total yield, led by a 6.48% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.48%
Payout Ratio
1.1%
How GLPI Splits Its Return
Div 6.48%
Dividend 6.48%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.11
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
3.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
283M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.78 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.10 | +2.0% | 0.0% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $3.04 | -3.5% | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| 2023 | $3.15 | +12.3% | 0.0% | 6.4% |
| 2022 | $2.81 | -3.3% | 0.0% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsGLPI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $51, implying +6.5% from the current price of $48. The bear case scenario is $32 and the bull case is $60.
02What is the GLPI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for GLPI is $51 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $53 (+10.3% from today), and the low-end target is $48 (-0.1%). The base case model target is $49.
03Is Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) stock overvalued in 2026?
GLPI trades at 15.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for GLPI in 2026 are: (1) Tenant Concentration Risk — A significant portion of GLPI's properties are leased to a limited number of casino operators, notably PENN Entertainment. (2) Elevated Debt Levels — As of March 31, 2026, GLPI carried approximately $8. (3) Interest Rate Sensitivity — GLPI's dependence on external capital for growth makes it sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates GLPI will report consensus revenue of $1.7B (+6.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.89 (-9.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.7B in revenue.
06When does Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for GLPI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. generate?
Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) generated $585M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 37.6%. GLPI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.5% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).