Upside case
Bull case
$60+113.3%
VICI would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
20 bullish · 0 bearish · 26 covering VICI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+13.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$3 – $60
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.2B
VICI price targets
Three scenarios for where VICI stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Bear
$3
Base
$26
Bull
$60
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$26-7.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing VICI — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$3-90.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push VICI down roughly 90% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
VICI Properties Inc.
VICI · NYSEReal EstateREIT - DiversifiedDecember year-end
VICI Properties is a real estate investment trust that owns and leases gaming, hospitality, and entertainment properties across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through long-term triple-net leases—where tenants pay rent plus property taxes, insurance, and maintenance—with gaming operators like Caesars Entertainment and Penn National Gaming. Its competitive advantage lies in owning irreplaceable, market-leading casino resorts in prime locations—particularly on the Las Vegas Strip—which creates high barriers to entry and stable cash flows.
Market Cap
$30.2B
Revenue TTM
$4.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.1B
Net Margin
76.7%
VICI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.60
Revenue
$1.0B/$994M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.71/$0.59
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.70
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.82/$0.71
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.82/$0.60 | +36.7% | $1.0B/$994M | +0.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.71/$0.59 | +20.3% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.57/$0.70 | -18.1% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.82/$0.71 | +16.0% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.5B
+10.5% YoY
FY2
$5.0B
+10.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.21
-24.1% YoY
FY2
$2.40
+9.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.5B
FCF Margin: 63.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VICI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
VICI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2021
Total disclosed revenue $1.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Real Property Business Segment
100.0%
+23.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Real Property Business Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2021 revenue, up 23.1% YoY.
VICI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $46 — implies +59.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
59.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VICI
10.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
57% discount
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
VICI
10.8x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
55% discount
vs VICI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.8x
vs
5Y Average
15.5x
30% discount
Forward PE
9.9x
S&P 500
19.1x
-48%
Real Estate
26.4x
-63%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-57%
Real Estate
24.1x
-55%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-30%
PEG Ratio
1.30x
S&P 500
1.72x
-24%
Real Estate
1.25x
+4%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-47%
Real Estate
16.7x
-51%
5Y Avg
15.5x
-48%
Price/FCF
12.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-43%
Real Estate
15.4x
-22%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-18%
Price/Sales
7.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+141%
Real Estate
3.0x
+153%
5Y Avg
9.4x
-19%
Dividend Yield
6.17%
S&P 500
1.87%
+230%
Real Estate
4.66%
+32%
5Y Avg
5.09%
+21%
| Metric | VICI | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg VICI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.9x | 19.1x-48% | 26.4x-63% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.8x | 25.1x-57% | 24.1x-55% | 15.5x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.30x | 1.72x-24% | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.1x | 15.2x-47% | 16.7x-51% | 15.5x-48% |
| Price/FCF | 12.0x | 21.1x-43% | 15.4x-22% | 14.8x-18% |
| Price/Sales | 7.5x | 3.1x+141% | 3.0x+153% | 9.4x-19% |
| Dividend Yield | 6.17% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 5.09% |
VICI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVICI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
VICI pays 6.2% total shareholder yield with 98.7% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
99.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
98.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
76.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.91
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
98.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$563M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$563M
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
Net cash ✓
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
11.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.2%
Dividend
6.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.74
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
66.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageVICI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Tenant Concentration
Approximately 74% of VICI’s rental income comes from a handful of tenants, with Caesars contributing 39% and MGM 34% of annualized contractual rent. A material deterioration in the financial health of either tenant could sharply reduce VICI’s revenue and its ability to make distributions.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
As a REIT, VICI’s borrowing costs rise with market interest rates, potentially eroding cash available for distributions and depressing the stock price. Sustained rate hikes could increase debt servicing expenses and compress net operating income.
Medium
Market & Economic Sensitivity
Nearly 48% of VICI’s revenue is derived from Las Vegas Strip properties, making it vulnerable to tourism downturns and regional economic shocks. Changes in consumer leisure spending can directly impact tenant performance and rental income.
Medium
Operational Execution & Diversification
Failure to identify and acquire new properties, or underperformance of acquisitions, could harm VICI’s growth and financial condition. Diversification into non‑gaming sectors introduces new market dynamics and competitive pressures.
Medium
Debt & Financing
VICI carries significant indebtedness and plans to incur more debt, increasing borrowing costs and financial risk. Higher leverage can limit flexibility and elevate default risk if cash flows decline.
Lower
ESG & Climate Risks
Broader environmental, social, and governance risks, including physical climate impacts, could affect VICI’s operations and reputation. These risks are less directly tied to current financial performance but may materialize over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VICI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Net Margin and Triple‑Net Lease Model
VICI’s net margin exceeds 69%, reflecting efficient management and strong profitability. The triple‑net lease structure transfers operational risk to tenants, delivering high EBITDA margins and predictable cash flows that are further protected by inflation‑linked escalators.
Substantial Dividend Yield and Growth
The company offers a forward dividend yield of about 6.59%, positioning it as a potential Dividend Aristocrat. VICI has a track record of dividend increases, minimal share dilution, and growing AFFO per share, enhancing dividend security.
Diversification into Experiential Real Estate
Beyond gaming real estate, VICI is expanding into college sports infrastructure and entertainment venues, broadening its growth opportunities. This diversification reduces reliance on gaming and makes the business model more resilient to sector disruption.
Strategic Partnerships and Capital Flexibility
VICI has forged strategic partnerships focused on high‑growth experiential real estate. Its capital structure is flexible, with the option to increase its credit facility to fund future growth initiatives.
Resilient Operations and Tenant Reliability
Tenants consistently demonstrate profitability, achieving 100% rent collection under triple‑net leases. The company’s diversified asset base and long‑term leases underpin operational resilience.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VICI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.27
52W Range Position
23%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$26.55
+6.5% from the low
52-Week High
$34.01
-16.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.21%
3 Month
-1.64%
YTD
+0.4%
1 Year
-11.4%
3Y CAGR
-4.8%
5Y CAGR
-2.0%
10Y CAGR
+4.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VICI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.9x
vs 21.6x median
-54% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.5%
vs +6.3% median
+67% above peer median
Net Margin
76.7%
vs 38.3% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VIC VICI VICI Properties Inc. | $30.2B | 9.9x | +10.5% | 76.7% | Buy | +13.2% |
GLP GLPI Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. | $13.5B | 14.9x | +6.3% | 57.3% | Buy | +7.2% |
EPR EPR EPR Properties | $4.3B | 18.6x | +6.3% | 38.3% | Hold | +5.6% |
O O Realty Income Corporation | $59.4B | 38.2x | +11.5% | 18.4% | Hold | +2.6% |
NNN NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $8.4B | 21.6x | +6.1% | 41.4% | Hold | +3.7% |
WPC WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | $16.0B | 29.0x | +4.8% | 26.0% | Hold | +0.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VICI Dividend and Capital Return
VICI returns 6.2% total yield, led by a 6.17% dividend, raised 8 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
6.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
6.17%
Payout Ratio
66.8%
How VICI Splits Its Return
Div 6.17%
Dividend 6.17%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.74
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.6%
5Y Div CAGR
7.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.76 | +4.1% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| 2024 | $1.69 | +5.3% | 0.0% | 5.7% |
| 2023 | $1.61 | +7.3% | 0.0% | 4.9% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +8.7% | 0.0% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsVICI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +13.2% from the current price of $28. The bear case scenario is $3 and the bull case is $60.
02What is the VICI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VICI is $32 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $34 (+20.3% from today), and the low-end target is $30 (+6.1%). The base case model target is $26.
03Is VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) stock overvalued in 2026?
VICI trades at 9.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VICI in 2026 are: (1) Tenant Concentration — Approximately 74% of VICI’s rental income comes from a handful of tenants, with Caesars contributing 39% and MGM 34% of annualized contractual rent. (2) Interest Rate Sensitivity — As a REIT, VICI’s borrowing costs rise with market interest rates, potentially eroding cash available for distributions and depressing the stock price. (3) Market & Economic Sensitivity — Nearly 48% of VICI’s revenue is derived from Las Vegas Strip properties, making it vulnerable to tourism downturns and regional economic shocks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is VICI Properties Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VICI will report consensus revenue of $4.5B (+10.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.21 (-24.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.0B in revenue.
06When does VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VICI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does VICI Properties Inc. generate?
VICI Properties Inc. (VICI) generated $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 63.0%. VICI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (6.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).