Upside case
Bull case
$178+142.8%
WPC would need investors to value it at roughly 70x earnings — about 41x more generous than today's 29x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
20
analysts
7 bullish · 3 bearish · 20 covering WPC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
10
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$73
+0.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$50 – $178
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
20
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
29.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.0B
WPC price targets
Three scenarios for where WPC stock could go
Current
~$73
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $73
Bear
$50
Base
$100
Bull
$178
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$100+36.5%
At 40x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$50-31.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 9x multiple contraction could push WPC down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
W. P. Carey Inc.
WPC · NYSEReal EstateREIT - DiversifiedDecember year-end
W. P. Carey is a diversified net lease real estate investment trust that owns and manages operationally-critical commercial properties across industrial, warehouse, office, retail, and self-storage sectors. It generates revenue primarily through long-term triple-net leases—where tenants pay rent plus property expenses—with built-in rent escalators, creating stable cash flows from its geographically diversified portfolio. The company's competitive advantage lies in its decades of experience, disciplined underwriting of essential real estate assets, and a diversified tenant base that reduces concentration risk.
Market Cap
$16.0B
Revenue TTM
$2.0B
Net Income TTM
$517M
Net Margin
26.0%
WPC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.28/$1.23
Revenue
$431M/$420M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.25/$1.23
Revenue
$656M/$433M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$0.68
Revenue
$445M/$416M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.30/$0.61
Revenue
$455M/$431M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.28/$1.23 | +4.1% | $431M/$420M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25/$1.23 | +1.6% | $656M/$433M | +51.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$0.68 | +87.6% | $445M/$416M | +6.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.30/$0.61 | +113.8% | $455M/$431M | +5.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.1B
+4.8% YoY
FY2
$2.2B
+7.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.62
+12.3% YoY
FY2
$2.88
+9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 56.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
WPC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
WPC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $1.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Owned Real Estate
99.2%
+8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Owned Real Estate is the largest disclosed segment at 99.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.6% YoY.
WPC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Overvalued
Fair value est. $58 — implies -20.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
20.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
WPC
34.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+38% premium
vs Real Estate Trailing P/E
WPC
34.7x
vs
Real Estate
24.1x
+44% premium
vs WPC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
34.7x
vs
5Y Average
27.6x
+26% premium
Forward PE
29.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+52%
Real Estate
26.4x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
34.7x
S&P 500
25.1x
+38%
Real Estate
24.1x
+44%
5Y Avg
27.6x
+26%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Real Estate
1.25x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+26%
Real Estate
16.7x
+15%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+49%
Price/FCF
14.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-30%
Real Estate
15.4x
-5%
5Y Avg
14.0x
+5%
Price/Sales
9.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+199%
Real Estate
3.0x
+214%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+2%
Dividend Yield
4.88%
S&P 500
1.87%
+161%
Real Estate
4.66%
+5%
5Y Avg
5.82%
-16%
| Metric | WPC | S&P 500 | Real Estate | 5Y Avg WPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 29.0x | 19.1x+52% | 26.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 34.7x | 25.1x+38% | 24.1x+44% | 27.6x+26% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.25x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.2x | 15.2x+26% | 16.7x+15% | 12.9x+49% |
| Price/FCF | 14.7x | 21.1x-30% | 15.4x | 14.0x |
| Price/Sales | 9.3x | 3.1x+199% | 3.0x+214% | 9.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 4.88% | 1.87% | 4.66% | 5.82% |
WPC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolWPC Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
WPC pays 4.9% total shareholder yield with 43.3% operating margin. Leverage is structural for REITs — debt capacity matters more than absolute ratio.
Property Operations
Revenue, margins, and distribution coverage
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+24.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
68.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
43.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
26.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.33
Operating Margin
NOI-equivalent margin — key for REIT property economics
43.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$155M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.6B
Leverage (Net Debt / FCF)
REITs carry structural leverage — higher ratios are expected
7.6× FCF
Asset-heavy model means debt/FCF above 10× is common and not a distress signal.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
6.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
4.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.57
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
169.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
219M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. REITs carry structural leverage — debt/FCF ratios above 10× are normal and do not indicate distress.
Open full ratios pageWPC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Tenant Credit Risk
A significant portion of WPC's tenants are non-investment grade (78.4%), increasing the likelihood of rent collection issues or tenant defaults. Tenant bankruptcies or insolvencies can lead to reduced revenue, increased expenses, and potential loss of lease payments.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Rising interest rates can increase WPC's debt servicing costs and potentially lower property valuations. Although WPC has a predominantly fixed-rate debt structure (96%), sustained high interest rates can still impact operations and limit investment opportunities.
High Risk
Financial Strength
While WPC demonstrates strong profitability, concerns exist regarding its financial strength, with a low Altman Z-score suggesting potential near-term bankruptcy risk. This raises alarms about the company's ability to sustain operations under financial stress.
Medium
Economic Uncertainties and Inflation
Broader economic headwinds, inflation, and high interest rates can adversely affect tenants' ability to pay rent and reduce demand for properties. Inflation can also increase WPC's own operating expenses, such as general and administrative costs, potentially at a faster rate than rental income increases.
Medium
Acquisition Strategy and Financing
A contraction in acquisition spreads and reliance on equity financing for future acquisitions could hinder growth prospects and pressure financial stability and dividend sustainability. This could limit WPC's ability to expand its portfolio effectively.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
WPC's diverse geographical holdings expose it to geopolitical risks, which can heighten vulnerabilities related to economic trends and market dynamics. Currency exchange rate fluctuations are also a concern, potentially impacting revenue from international operations.
Lower
Competition
Intensifying competition for high-quality net lease assets may compress cap rates on new acquisitions. This could affect WPC's ability to secure favorable terms on future investments.
Lower
Valuation
WPC's P/E ratio is relatively high compared to historical averages, suggesting the stock may be priced at a premium. This could lead to valuation corrections if market conditions change.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why WPC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Net Lease Strategy
W. P. Carey specializes in owning high-quality commercial real estate across North America and Europe, leased to tenants on long-term, net leases. This model provides stable and predictable cash flows, as tenants are responsible for most property operating expenses.
Dividend History
The company has a long-standing reputation for consistent dividend payments, which is a primary driver for many investors in WPC stock. Despite a strategic dividend adjustment after spinning off office properties, W. P. Carey remains focused on maintaining a competitive payout ratio.
Financial Performance and Growth
W. P. Carey has shown revenue growth, with an increase of 8.20% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The company has provided guidance for continued AFFO growth in 2026, supported by ample liquidity and disciplined capital allocation.
Diversified Portfolio and Reduced Risk
The spin-off of office properties has allowed W. P. Carey to exit its office investments, which were facing difficulties. This strategic move is expected to lower risks and improve growth prospects by increasing exposure to higher-quality assets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
WPC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$73.18
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$59.34
+23.3% from the low
52-Week High
$75.69
-3.3% from the high
1 Month
+4.68%
3 Month
+2.52%
YTD
+12.8%
1 Year
+19.0%
3Y CAGR
+0.7%
5Y CAGR
+0.2%
10Y CAGR
+1.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
WPC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
29.0x
vs 23.9x median
+21% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.8%
vs +11.5% median
-58% below peer median
Net Margin
26.0%
vs 41.4% median
-37% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPC WPC W. P. Carey Inc. | $16.0B | 29.0x | +4.8% | 26.0% | Hold | +0.0% |
NNN NNN NNN REIT, Inc. | $8.4B | 21.6x | +6.1% | 41.4% | Hold | +3.7% |
EPR EPRT Essential Properties Realty Trust, Inc. | $6.7B | 23.9x | +22.8% | 43.3% | Buy | +17.1% |
ADC ADC Agree Realty Corporation | $9.1B | 38.8x | +17.3% | 29.3% | Buy | +9.9% |
O O Realty Income Corporation | $59.4B | 38.2x | +11.5% | 18.4% | Hold | +2.6% |
VIC VICI VICI Properties Inc. | $30.2B | 9.9x | +10.5% | 76.7% | Buy | +13.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
WPC Dividend and Capital Return
WPC returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 4.88% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
4.88%
Payout Ratio
1.7%
How WPC Splits Its Return
Div 4.88%
Dividend 4.88%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.57
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-4.5%
5Y Div CAGR
-2.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
219M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.93 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.62 | +3.7% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $3.49 | -12.8% | 0.1% | 6.4% |
| 2023 | $4.00 | -3.7% | 0.0% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $4.15 | +0.9% | 0.0% | 5.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsWPC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 20 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $73, implying +0.0% from the current price of $73. The bear case scenario is $50 and the bull case is $178.
02What is the WPC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for WPC is $73 based on 20 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $75 (+2.5% from today), and the low-end target is $72 (-1.6%). The base case model target is $100.
03Is W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) stock overvalued in 2026?
WPC trades at 29.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for WPC in 2026 are: (1) Tenant Credit Risk — A significant portion of WPC's tenants are non-investment grade (78. (2) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Rising interest rates can increase WPC's debt servicing costs and potentially lower property valuations. (3) Financial Strength — While WPC demonstrates strong profitability, concerns exist regarding its financial strength, with a low Altman Z-score suggesting potential near-term bankruptcy risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is W. P. Carey Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates WPC will report consensus revenue of $2.1B (+4.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.62 (+12.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.2B in revenue.
06When does W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for WPC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does W. P. Carey Inc. generate?
W. P. Carey Inc. (WPC) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 56.8%. WPC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).