Upside case
Bull case
$51+55.7%
TSCO would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
26 bullish · 1 bearish · 50 covering TSCO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
26
Hold
23
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$56
+73.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$30 – $51
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $17.1B
TSCO price targets
Three scenarios for where TSCO stock could go
Current
~$33
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $33
Bear
$30
Base
$37
Bull
$51
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$37+13.8%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$30-7.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push TSCO down roughly 8% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tractor Supply Company
TSCO · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Tractor Supply Company is a rural lifestyle retailer serving recreational farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners across the United States. It generates revenue primarily through retail store sales — with merchandise spanning livestock supplies, hardware, seasonal products, work clothing, and pet supplies — supplemented by e-commerce through its websites. The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized rural market focus, extensive physical store footprint in underserved areas, and deep understanding of its customers' unique needs.
Market Cap
$17.1B
Revenue TTM
$15.6B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
6.9%
TSCO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
17%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-21.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.81/$0.80
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.48
Revenue
$3.7B/$3.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.43/$0.46
Revenue
$3.9B/$4.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.31/$0.35
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.81/$0.80 | +1.0% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.49/$0.48 | +1.6% | $3.7B/$3.7B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43/$0.46 | -7.0% | $3.9B/$4.0B | -2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.31/$0.35 | -11.4% | $3.6B/$3.6B | -1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.3B
+4.0% YoY
FY2
$17.1B
+5.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.16
+5.7% YoY
FY2
$2.34
+8.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$585M
FCF Margin: 3.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TSCO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TSCO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Companion Animal
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Companion Animal is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
TSCO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $49 — implies +44.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
44.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSCO
15.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
37% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TSCO
15.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
19% discount
vs TSCO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.8x
vs
5Y Average
24.8x
36% discount
Forward PE
15.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-20%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+0%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-19%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-36%
PEG Ratio
1.57x
S&P 500
1.75x
-10%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+65%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
-24%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+3%
5Y Avg
17.2x
-32%
Price/FCF
23.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
+8%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+54%
5Y Avg
44.2x
-48%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-65%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+55%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-41%
Dividend Yield
2.82%
S&P 500
1.88%
+50%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+31%
5Y Avg
1.56%
+81%
| Metric | TSCO | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TSCO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.2x | 19.1x-20% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.8x | 25.2x-37% | 19.6x-19% | 24.8x-36% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.57x | 1.75x-10% | 0.95x+65% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.7x | 15.3x-24% | 11.4x | 17.2x-32% |
| Price/FCF | 23.1x | 21.3x | 15.0x+54% | 44.2x-48% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-65% | 0.7x+55% | 1.9x-41% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.82% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.56% |
TSCO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSCO Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
TSCO 14.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$15.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
32.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.05
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$585M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
3.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$194M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
9.8× FCF
~9.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (14.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
2.8%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$361M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
44.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
526M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageTSCO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Balance Sheet and Debt
Tractor Supply Company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.22, indicating substantial leverage that can weaken its liquidity position. The company's quick ratio is alarmingly low at 0.07, suggesting a heavy reliance on inventory sales to meet short-term obligations.
High Risk
Inflation and Cost Pressures
Tesco faces significant risks from inflation, particularly in food prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts. The company struggles to pass on these increased costs to consumers without impacting profit margins, which are already tight in the grocery sector.
High Risk
Valuation and Growth Expectations
Tractor Supply's stock is viewed as fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with an elevated P/E ratio compared to historical averages. Concerns about slowing growth metrics are evident, as year-over-year revenue growth and forward EPS diluted growth have declined compared to historical averages.
Medium
Market Sentiment and Analyst Downgrades
Recent analyst downgrades and price target reductions from firms like Wall Street Zen indicate a shift in market sentiment regarding Tractor Supply's future performance. This could lead to further downward pressure on the stock price.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Tesco operates in a highly competitive market, facing pressure from discount retailers like Aldi and Lidl. Failure to maintain a competitive edge in pricing, product range, and customer service could result in a loss of market share and profitability.
Medium
Economic and Political Environment
Changes in economic and political conditions, including currency fluctuations, pose risks to Tesco's performance. These factors can significantly impact the company's operations and financial results.
Lower
Operational and Regulatory Risks
Tesco is exposed to various operational and regulatory risks, particularly within its banking division. Changes in the regulatory environment could affect capital requirements and the bank's future earnings profile.
Lower
Human Resources and Talent Management
The ability to attract and retain talent is critical for Tesco's strategic goals. Failure to evolve company culture and manage human resources effectively could hinder operational efficiency and cost reduction efforts.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSCO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Essential Business Model
Tractor Supply operates in the 'rural lifestyle' segment, selling essential goods like feed, fencing, tools, and pet supplies. This makes its business model less susceptible to economic downturns, as demand for these products is relatively consistent.
Strong Customer Loyalty
The company boasts over 30 million loyal customers in its Neighbor's Club program and a robust omnichannel strategy. A significant portion of sales is influenced by digital channels, enhancing customer engagement and retention.
Financial Performance and Guidance
Tractor Supply reported a 3.6% increase in net sales to $3.59 billion in the first quarter of 2026, with comparable store sales increasing by 0.5%. The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2026 outlook, projecting comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3%.
Dividend Growth and Shareholder Returns
Tractor Supply has a history of increasing its dividends for 15-16 consecutive years, with a modest payout ratio indicating sustainability. The company also engages in share repurchases, returning capital to shareholders.
Undervaluation and Analyst Confidence
Despite recent price target reductions and analyst downgrades, many analysts maintain a 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy' rating on the stock. Some analyses suggest the stock may be undervalued based on its fair value assessment and historical valuation multiples.
Potential Catalysts for Growth
A potential bull case exists around inflation re-accelerating, which could benefit consumable sales and improve margins. Additionally, better weather in the second quarter and a crowded positioning in the market could also drive positive performance.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSCO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.52
52W Range Position
2%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$31.98
+1.7% from the low
52-Week High
$63.99
-49.2% from the high
1 Month
-28.35%
3 Month
-41.52%
YTD
-36.0%
1 Year
-36.3%
3Y CAGR
-12.3%
5Y CAGR
-3.6%
10Y CAGR
+5.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSCO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.2x
vs 29.2x median
-48% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.0%
vs +5.6% median
-29% below peer median
Net Margin
6.9%
vs 8.9% median
-22% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSC TSCO Tractor Supply Company | $17.1B | 15.2x | +4.0% | 6.9% | Buy | +73.0% |
BOO BOOT Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | $5.2B | 23.4x | +14.9% | 8.9% | Buy | +34.7% |
ORL ORLY O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | $79.3B | 29.2x | +5.6% | 14.3% | Buy | +16.9% |
CAS CASY Casey's General Stores, Inc. | $31.9B | 47.4x | +5.1% | 3.8% | Buy | -19.8% |
WIN WINA Winmark Corporation | $1.3B | 31.3x | +4.5% | 48.2% | — | +19.8% |
CHW CHWY Chewy, Inc. | $10.2B | 28.1x | +10.4% | 1.2% | Buy | +69.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TSCO Dividend and Capital Return
TSCO returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 2.82% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 2.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
2.82%
Payout Ratio
44.5%
How TSCO Splits Its Return
Div 2.82%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 2.82%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.7%
5Y Div CAGR
25.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$361M
Estimated Shares Retired
11M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
526M
At 2.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.92 | +4.5% | 1.3% | 3.1% |
| 2024 | $0.88 | +6.8% | 2.0% | 3.6% |
| 2023 | $0.82 | +12.0% | 2.6% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $0.74 | +76.9% | 2.9% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsTSCO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $56, implying +73.0% from the current price of $33. The bear case scenario is $30 and the bull case is $51.
02What is the TSCO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSCO is $56 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+93.7% from today), and the low-end target is $44 (+35.3%). The base case model target is $37.
03Is Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSCO trades at 15.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSCO in 2026 are: (1) Balance Sheet and Debt — Tractor Supply Company has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2. (2) Inflation and Cost Pressures — Tesco faces significant risks from inflation, particularly in food prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts. (3) Valuation and Growth Expectations — Tractor Supply's stock is viewed as fairly valued to slightly overvalued, with an elevated P/E ratio compared to historical averages. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tractor Supply Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSCO will report consensus revenue of $16.3B (+4.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.16 (+5.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.1B in revenue.
06When does Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TSCO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tractor Supply Company generate?
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) generated $585M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 3.7%. TSCO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.8% yield) and share repurchases ($361M TTM).