Upside case
Bull case
$20+116.0%
HLN would need investors to value it at roughly 48x earnings — about 26x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Haleon plc (HLN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
4
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 4 covering HLN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$10
+10.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $20
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
4
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.1B
HLN price targets
Three scenarios for where HLN stock could go
Current
~$9
Confidence
39 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $9
Bear
$6
Base
$13
Bull
$20
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13+36.8%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-37.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push HLN down roughly 37% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Haleon plc
HLN · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericDecember year-end
Haleon is a global consumer healthcare company that develops and sells over-the-counter medicines, vitamins, and oral care products. It generates revenue primarily from product sales across categories like pain relief (~30% of sales), oral health (~25%), and vitamins/minerals/supplements (~20%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of trusted, market-leading brands—including Sensodyne, Advil, and Centrum—that benefit from strong consumer loyalty and global distribution.
Market Cap
$41.1B
Revenue TTM
$22.0B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
14.5%
HLN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
30%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-28.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$0.05/$25.25
Revenue
$7.1B/$2.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.08/$0.24
Revenue
$7.3B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.24
Revenue
$7.5B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.26/$0.25
Revenue
$7.5B/$7.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $0.05/$25.25 | -99.8% | $7.1B/$2.7B | +161.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.08/$0.24 | -67.3% | $7.3B/$2.8B | +162.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.14/$0.24 | -42.8% | $7.5B/$2.8B | +171.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.26/$0.25 | +3.4% | $7.5B/$7.6B | -0.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.0B
-9.3% YoY
FY2
$19.9B
-0.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.66
-6.2% YoY
FY2
$0.67
+1.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.1B
FCF Margin: 14.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HLN beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HLN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $1.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Respiratory Health
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Rest of World
56.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Respiratory Health is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2022 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Rest of World is the largest reported region at 56.2%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HLN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $12 — implies +23.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
23.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HLN
18.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
25% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
HLN
18.9x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
15% discount
vs HLN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.9x
vs
5Y Average
31.4x
40% discount
Forward PE
22.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Healthcare
19.0x
+16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-25%
Healthcare
22.1x
-15%
5Y Avg
31.4x
-40%
PEG Ratio
2.23x
S&P 500
1.75x
+28%
Healthcare
1.52x
+47%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-11%
Healthcare
14.1x
-4%
5Y Avg
20.7x
-35%
Price/FCF
15.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-28%
Healthcare
18.7x
-18%
5Y Avg
21.8x
-30%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-11%
Healthcare
2.8x
-2%
5Y Avg
3.7x
-25%
Dividend Yield
1.96%
S&P 500
1.88%
+4%
Healthcare
1.40%
+40%
5Y Avg
2.72%
-28%
| Metric | HLN | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg HLN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.0x | 19.1x+16% | 19.0x+16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.9x | 25.2x-25% | 22.1x-15% | 31.4x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.23x | 1.75x+28% | 1.52x+47% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.5x | 15.3x-11% | 14.1x | 20.7x-35% |
| Price/FCF | 15.3x | 21.3x-28% | 18.7x-18% | 21.8x-30% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-11% | 2.8x | 3.7x-25% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.96% | 1.88% | 1.40% | 2.72% |
HLN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHLN Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HLN generates $3.1B in free cash flow at a 14.2% margin — returns 4.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
63.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
21.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.70
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
14.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.3× FCF
~2.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.9%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (7.6%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.1%
Dividend
2.0%
Buyback
2.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$640M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
36.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
4.5B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHLN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Legal
Haleon operates in a highly regulated sector, and changes in regulations can be difficult to comply with, potentially driving up compliance costs. The company faces lawsuits and financial liabilities related to product adverse effects or misleading claims, such as the FDA ruling on the ineffectiveness of oral phenylephrine and the resulting class‑action lawsuit. Additionally, inherited liability from past products like Zantac, withdrawn due to carcinogen concerns, could expose Haleon to further legal costs.
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Operational
A challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly high inflation, can increase Haleon’s operating costs. Demand for its slightly premium consumer healthcare products is tied to consumer economic strength, so an economic contraction could weaken sales. Supply chain disruptions, as seen with digestive health products in the US, can cause inventory problems and lost revenue.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
The consumer healthcare industry is highly competitive, requiring significant investment in research and development to maintain market share. Failure to keep pace with competitors could erode Haleon’s pricing power and growth prospects.
Medium
Financial & Valuation
Haleon’s balance sheet is described as seemingly levered, and its high dividend payout ratio may limit reinvestment in growth opportunities. Technical indicators currently suggest a “Strong Sell” outlook, and analysts note that the stock may be overvalued based on certain metrics, adding valuation risk.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HLN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Analyst Upgrades Signal Confidence
Multiple analysts have upgraded Haleon, reflecting growing confidence in the company’s prospects. The upgrades come amid expectations of stronger volume growth and a recovery in the U.S. market, underscoring a bullish outlook.
Significant Upside Potential
Analysts project a potential upside of 25.32% from the current price, driven by expectations of earnings growth and market expansion. This upside reflects the market’s optimism about Haleon’s future performance.
Robust Brand Portfolio Drives Growth
Haleon owns leading consumer health brands such as Sensodyne, Advil, Centrum, and Poligrip. These brands dominate their categories across multiple geographies, providing a solid foundation for revenue growth.
Operational Efficiency and Cash Flow Gains
The company is rationalizing operations by divesting non‑strategic brands, slimming its manufacturing footprint, and optimizing distribution. It targets £800 million in productivity savings over five years and a 30% annual reduction in working capital, which should boost cash flow.
Share Buybacks Reduce Overhang
Haleon has launched a share buyback program, signaling confidence in its financial position and commitment to shareholder returns. The buyback follows Pfizer’s sale of its stake, removing a significant overhang on the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HLN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$9.23
52W Range Position
19%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$8.71
+6.0% from the low
52-Week High
$11.42
-19.2% from the high
1 Month
-6.96%
3 Month
-15.94%
YTD
-7.7%
1 Year
-13.5%
3Y CAGR
+1.3%
5Y CAGR
+4.2%
10Y CAGR
+2.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HLN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.0x
vs 21.4x median
+3% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-9.3%
vs +1.4% median
-759% below peer median
Net Margin
14.5%
vs 11.8% median
+22% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HLN HLN Haleon plc | $41.1B | 22.0x | -9.3% | 14.5% | Buy | +10.5% |
KVU KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $33.9B | 15.5x | +1.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +3.2% |
CHD CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $22.5B | 25.3x | +1.5% | 11.8% | Buy | +4.9% |
PG PG The Procter & Gamble Company | $345.7B | 21.4x | +0.9% | 14.7% | Buy | +9.4% |
CL CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | $70.7B | 23.1x | +3.5% | 10.5% | Hold | +6.3% |
PBH PBH Prestige Consumer Healthcare Inc. | $2.6B | 12.0x | +1.4% | 16.9% | Buy | +21.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HLN Dividend and Capital Return
HLN returns 4.1% annually — 1.96% through dividends and 2.1% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.1%
Dividend Yield
1.96%
Payout Ratio
36.7%
How HLN Splits Its Return
Div 1.96%
Buyback 2.1%
Dividend 1.96%Buybacks 2.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-38.8%
5Y Div CAGR
-23.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$640M
Estimated Shares Retired
69M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
4.5B
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.13 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.18 | +11.8% | 1.4% | 2.7% |
| 2024 | $0.16 | +52.1% | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 2023 | $0.10 | — | 0.1% | 1.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsHLN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Haleon plc (HLN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Haleon plc (HLN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 4 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $10, implying +10.5% from the current price of $9. The bear case scenario is $6 and the bull case is $20.
02What is the HLN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HLN is $10 based on 4 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $10 (+10.5% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (+10.5%). The base case model target is $13.
03Is Haleon plc (HLN) stock overvalued in 2026?
HLN trades at 22.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Haleon plc (HLN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HLN in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Legal — Haleon operates in a highly regulated sector, and changes in regulations can be difficult to comply with, potentially driving up compliance costs. (2) Macroeconomic & Operational — A challenging macroeconomic environment, particularly high inflation, can increase Haleon’s operating costs. (3) Competitive Landscape — The consumer healthcare industry is highly competitive, requiring significant investment in research and development to maintain market share. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Haleon plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HLN will report consensus revenue of $20.0B (-9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.66 (-6.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.9B in revenue.
06When does Haleon plc (HLN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HLN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Haleon plc generate?
Haleon plc (HLN) generated $3.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 14.2%. HLN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.0% yield) and share repurchases ($640M TTM).