Upside case
Bull case
$165+88.8%
HSBC would need investors to value it at roughly 20x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
19
analysts
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 19 covering HSBC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
10
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$52
-40.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$44 – $165
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $300.4B
HSBC price targets
Three scenarios for where HSBC stock could go
Current
~$87
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $87
Bear
$44
Base
$128
Bull
$165
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$128+46.1%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44-49.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push HSBC down roughly 50% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
HSBC is a global banking and financial services institution operating across retail, commercial, and investment banking. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (about 60% of total income) and fee-based income from transaction services, wealth management, and investment banking. Its key competitive advantage is its unique global network—particularly its dominant position in Asia and strong connectivity between East and West—which enables cross-border banking services few competitors can match.
Market Cap
$300.4B
Net Income TTM
$22.3B
HSBC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.95/$1.62
Revenue
$14.4B/$16.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.80/$1.65
Revenue
$33.5B/$16.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.85/$1.80
Revenue
$17.7B/$17.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.00/$2.18
Revenue
$19.1B/$18.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.95/$1.62 | +20.4% | $14.4B/$16.4B | -12.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.80/$1.65 | +9.1% | $33.5B/$16.0B | +108.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.85/$1.80 | +2.8% | $17.7B/$17.0B | +4.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.00/$2.18 | -8.3% | $19.1B/$18.6B | +2.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$145.7B
+1.7% YoY
FY2
$160.5B
+10.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.75
+51.5% YoY
FY2
$9.06
+16.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$9.4B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HSBC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HSBC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $29.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
HONG KONG
77.2%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
HONG KONG is the largest reported region at 77.2%, up 8.2% YoY.
HSBC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $91 — implies -0.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HSBC
14.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
42% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
HSBC
14.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+8% premium
vs HSBC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.4x
vs
5Y Average
9.3x
+55% premium
Forward PE
10.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-45%
Financial Services
10.4x
+1%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-42%
Financial Services
13.3x
+8%
5Y Avg
9.3x
+55%
PEG Ratio
0.32x
S&P 500
1.72x
-81%
Financial Services
1.01x
-68%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+5%
Financial Services
11.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
7.3x
+119%
Price/FCF
32.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+52%
Financial Services
10.6x
+203%
5Y Avg
8.7x
+266%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-35%
Financial Services
2.2x
-9%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+33%
Dividend Yield
4.41%
S&P 500
1.87%
+136%
Financial Services
2.70%
+63%
5Y Avg
6.55%
-33%
| Metric | HSBC | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg HSBC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.6x | 19.1x-45% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.4x | 25.1x-42% | 13.3x | 9.3x+55% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.32x | 1.72x-81% | 1.01x-68% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.9x | 15.2x | 11.4x+40% | 7.3x+119% |
| Price/FCF | 32.0x | 21.1x+52% | 10.6x+203% | 8.7x+266% |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-35% | 2.2x | 1.5x+33% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.41% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 6.55% |
HSBC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHSBC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
HSBC generates 11.7% ROE and 0.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.33
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$286.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$208.9B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
4.4%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.6B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.85
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
60.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageHSBC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Financial & Credit Risks
HSBC’s exposure to Hong Kong’s commercial real estate sector is a significant concern, with oversupply and declining asset values potentially driving higher loan impairments. The bank’s high debt ratio adds pressure, though it maintains strong debt repayment capacity. Market volatility from rising interest rates and possible bubbles in AI and private credit further compound credit risk.
High Risk
Regulatory & Compliance Risks
HSBC has faced penalties for failing to meet regulatory compliance standards, particularly in customer vetting, anti‑money laundering, and terrorist financing. Evolving regulatory requirements and the risk of financial crime—including fraud, bribery, corruption, tax evasion, and money laundering—can materially impact operations and capital.
Medium
Geopolitical Risks
The bank’s global footprint exposes it to tensions in the Middle East and between the US and China. With its strategic pivot to Asia, HSBC’s exposure to regional geopolitical dynamics has increased, despite the disbandment of its dedicated geopolitical risk team.
Medium
Operational Risks
Operational risk arises from inadequate internal processes, people, and systems, as well as external events. Cybersecurity threats are a growing concern, with the financial services industry facing increasingly sophisticated attacks that could disrupt operations.
Lower
Non‑Financial Risks
Non‑financial risks include discrimination, modern slavery in supply chains, and environmental stresses beyond climate change. Reputational risk is heightened by past compliance issues and ongoing scrutiny of the bank’s social and environmental practices.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HSBC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Asian Wealth Management Expansion
HSBC leverages its Asia footprint to capture wealth management growth, converting domestic deposits into high‑yield cross‑border assets. IWPB and Hong Kong businesses have shown strong performance, positioning the bank to tap rising affluent populations in the region.
Digital Efficiency & Trade Finance Growth
The bank is prioritizing digital efficiency and trade finance as key growth engines. By streamlining operations and expanding its trade finance portfolio, HSBC aims to boost profitability and capture increased transaction volumes.
Strategic Overhaul & Capital Reallocation
HSBC is executing a massive structural overhaul to become a simpler, more agile global bank, exiting less profitable markets and divesting non‑core businesses. Capital is being reinvested into high‑return areas, enhancing overall return on tangible equity.
Strong Financial Trajectory & RoTE Targets
Revenue grew 4% to $68.3 B in 2025, 5% to $71 B excluding notable items. HSBC targets a RoTE of 17% or better for 2026‑2028, with 2025 RoTE at 13.3% (17.2% excluding items). Net interest income rose to $34.8 B in 2025, with a 2026 target of $45 B. Share buybacks reached $6 B in 2025 and a dividend payout ratio of 50% of earnings.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HSBC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$87.40
52W Range Position
81%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$56.21
+55.5% from the low
52-Week High
$94.80
-7.8% from the high
1 Month
+3.26%
3 Month
+0.61%
YTD
+8.6%
1 Year
+54.2%
3Y CAGR
+31.8%
5Y CAGR
+22.6%
10Y CAGR
+10.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HSBC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.6x
vs 11.8x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+1.7%
vs -15.9% median
+111% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HSB HSBC HSBC Holdings plc | $300.4B | 10.6x | +1.7% | — | Hold | -40.5% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $223.7B | 11.8x | -15.9% | — | Buy | +9.7% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $834.2B | 13.9x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +9.5% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $404.3B | 11.9x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +15.1% |
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $78.3B | 10.7x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +92.7% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $58.6B | 9.1x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -51.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HSBC Dividend and Capital Return
HSBC returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 4.41% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.2%.
Dividend WatchFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
4.41%
Payout Ratio
60.5%
How HSBC Splits Its Return
Div 4.41%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 4.41%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.85
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
35.0%
5Y Div CAGR
25.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.6B
Estimated Shares Retired
41M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.4B
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.29 | -19.4% | 1.3% | 6.2% |
| 2024 | $4.09 | +55.5% | 6.5% | 15.9% |
| 2023 | $2.63 | +96.3% | 4.0% | 11.7% |
| 2022 | $1.34 | +22.9% | 1.9% | 7.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsHSBC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $52, implying -40.5% from the current price of $87. The bear case scenario is $44 and the bull case is $165.
02What is the HSBC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HSBC is $52 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $52 (-40.5% from today), and the low-end target is $52 (-40.5%). The base case model target is $128.
03Is HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) stock overvalued in 2026?
HSBC trades at 10.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HSBC in 2026 are: (1) Financial & Credit Risks — HSBC’s exposure to Hong Kong’s commercial real estate sector is a significant concern, with oversupply and declining asset values potentially driving higher loan impairments. (2) Regulatory & Compliance Risks — HSBC has faced penalties for failing to meet regulatory compliance standards, particularly in customer vetting, anti‑money laundering, and terrorist financing. (3) Geopolitical Risks — The bank’s global footprint exposes it to tensions in the Middle East and between the US and China. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is HSBC Holdings plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HSBC will report consensus revenue of $145.7B (+1.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.75 (+51.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $160.5B in revenue.
06When does HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HSBC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does HSBC Holdings plc generate?
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) generated $9.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. HSBC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3.6B TTM).