Upside case
Bull case
$38+59.9%
BCS would need investors to value it at roughly 18x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Barclays PLC (BCS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
18 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering BCS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$44
+83.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$7 – $38
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $82.4B
BCS price targets
Three scenarios for where BCS stock could go
Current
~$24
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $24
Bear
$7
Base
$12
Bull
$38
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$12-51.3%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$7-68.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 8x multiple contraction could push BCS down roughly 69% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Barclays PLC
BCS · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Barclays is a major British multinational universal bank offering retail, corporate, and investment banking services globally. It generates revenue primarily through interest income from lending activities (roughly 60%) and fees from investment banking, wealth management, and credit card services (roughly 40%). Its key competitive advantage lies in its diversified revenue streams across retail and investment banking, coupled with its strong UK retail franchise and global investment banking presence.
Market Cap
$82.4B
Net Income TTM
$7.1B
BCS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.50
Revenue
$25.1B/$9.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.56/$0.54
Revenue
$9.6B/$9.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.42
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.76/$0.75
Revenue
$11.0B/$10.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.62/$0.50 | +24.0% | $25.1B/$9.4B | +167.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.56/$0.54 | +3.7% | $9.6B/$9.3B | +4.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.42 | +9.5% | $9.7B/$9.4B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.76/$0.75 | +1.3% | $11.0B/$10.9B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$20.7B
-22.8% YoY
FY2
$16.1B
-22.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.28
-37.2% YoY
FY2
$1.08
-14.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BCS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BCS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $26 — implies +13.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BCS
10.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
57% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BCS
10.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
19% discount
vs BCS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.8x
vs
5Y Average
9.2x
+17% premium
Forward PE
11.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Financial Services
10.5x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-57%
Financial Services
13.4x
-19%
5Y Avg
9.2x
+17%
PEG Ratio
0.29x
S&P 500
1.75x
-83%
Financial Services
1.03x
-72%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-68%
Financial Services
11.4x
-58%
5Y Avg
5.4x
-11%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
3.8x
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-28%
Financial Services
2.3x
+0%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+47%
Dividend Yield
3.42%
S&P 500
1.88%
+82%
Financial Services
2.68%
+28%
5Y Avg
4.59%
-25%
| Metric | BCS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BCS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.2x | 19.1x-41% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.8x | 25.2x-57% | 13.4x-19% | 9.2x+17% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.29x | 1.75x-83% | 1.03x-72% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.8x | 15.3x-68% | 11.4x-58% | 5.4x-11% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 3.8x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-28% | 2.3x | 1.5x+47% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.42% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 4.59% |
BCS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBCS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BCS generates 9.2% ROE and 0.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.03
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$229.8B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$9.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
13.5%
Dividend
3.4%
Buyback
10.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.61
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
30.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.4B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBCS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
MFS Credit Exposure
Barclays has significant exposure to the collapsed UK mortgage lender MFS, which is facing fraud allegations and potential double‑pledging of assets. This could trigger credit impairments and losses, potentially impacting the bank’s balance sheet and profitability.
High Risk
Macroeconomic Inflation & Recession
Rising inflation, especially from energy prices and supply chain disruptions, combined with flat‑lining UK GDP heightens recession risks for cyclical banks like Barclays. Increased loan defaults and reduced lending activity could erode net interest income and capital buffers.
High Risk
Regulatory Scrutiny & Fines
Barclays faces scrutiny from UK regulators over due diligence related to MFS and its sister companies, and has already incurred a €1.65 million fine from Germany’s BaFin. Ongoing investigations into potential securities law violations could result in additional penalties and reputational damage.
Medium
UK Real Estate Credit Risk
A material fall in UK property prices would threaten the sizable portion of Barclays’ retail and corporate credit exposure tied to the UK real estate market. Declining collateral values could increase credit losses and pressure the bank’s capital ratios.
Medium
Private Credit Exposure
Barclays’ exposure to private credit and asset‑backed lending is heightened by the MFS collapse, raising concerns about potential defaults in these non‑core portfolios. Losses in private credit could erode earnings and affect the bank’s risk‑adjusted returns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BCS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Exceeded Earnings Expectations
Barclays recently reported earnings that surpassed analyst expectations, delivering a positive EPS. This beat in earnings signals stronger profitability and operational efficiency.
Strong Technical Indicators
The stock exhibits a robust uptrend and a classic bull flag pattern, indicating a potential breakout. It also shows strong trend agreement, relative performance, and trades above key moving averages.
Attractive Dividend Yield
Barclays offers an attractive dividend yield, appealing to income-focused investors. The consistent payout supports shareholder value and signals financial stability.
Forward-Looking Growth Targets
Management has set clear targets for income growth and efficiency savings, demonstrating confidence in future performance. These goals suggest a trajectory of improving profitability and cost control.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BCS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.02
52W Range Position
69%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$15.88
+51.3% from the low
52-Week High
$27.70
-13.3% from the high
1 Month
+9.58%
3 Month
-9.05%
YTD
-7.8%
1 Year
+49.1%
3Y CAGR
+45.4%
5Y CAGR
+19.2%
10Y CAGR
+9.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BCS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.2x
vs 11.0x median
+2% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-22.8%
vs -4.9% median
-366% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $82.4B | 11.2x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +83.2% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $140.3B | 13.8x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -47.9% |
HSB HSBC HSBC Holdings plc | $314.1B | 11.0x | -4.9% | — | Hold | -43.1% |
LYG LYG Lloyds Banking Group plc | $79.6B | 13.0x | +11.2% | — | Buy | -49.4% |
NWG NWG NatWest Group plc | $31.1B | 10.7x | -3.0% | — | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BCS Dividend and Capital Return
BCS returns capital mainly through $6.1B/year in buybacks (10.6% buyback yield), with a modest 3.60% dividend — combining for 14.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
14.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
10.6%
Dividend Yield
3.60%
Payout Ratio
30.8%
How BCS Splits Its Return
Div 3.60%
Buyback 10.6%
Dividend 3.60%Buybacks 10.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.61
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
10.3%
5Y Div CAGR
6.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
255M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.4B
At 7.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.31 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.44 | +4.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% |
| 2024 | $0.42 | +8.5% | 9.9% | 14.4% |
| 2023 | $0.38 | +17.9% | 16.8% | 24.0% |
| 2022 | $0.33 | +96.1% | 12.6% | 18.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsBCS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Barclays PLC (BCS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Barclays PLC (BCS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $44, implying +83.2% from the current price of $24. The bear case scenario is $7 and the bull case is $38.
02What is the BCS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BCS is $44 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $44 (+83.2% from today), and the low-end target is $44 (+83.2%). The base case model target is $12.
03Is Barclays PLC (BCS) stock overvalued in 2026?
BCS trades at 11.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Barclays PLC (BCS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BCS in 2026 are: (1) MFS Credit Exposure — Barclays has significant exposure to the collapsed UK mortgage lender MFS, which is facing fraud allegations and potential double‑pledging of assets. (2) Macroeconomic Inflation & Recession — Rising inflation, especially from energy prices and supply chain disruptions, combined with flat‑lining UK GDP heightens recession risks for cyclical banks like Barclays. (3) Regulatory Scrutiny & Fines — Barclays faces scrutiny from UK regulators over due diligence related to MFS and its sister companies, and has already incurred a €1. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Barclays PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BCS will report consensus revenue of $20.7B (-22.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.28 (-37.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $16.1B in revenue.
06When does Barclays PLC (BCS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BCS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Barclays PLC generate?
Barclays PLC (BCS) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BCS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($6.1B TTM).