Upside case
Bull case
$49+52.0%
DB would need investors to value it at roughly 14x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Deutsche Bank AG (DB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
33
analysts
7 bullish · 7 bearish · 33 covering DB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
19
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$15
-53.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $49
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
33
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $61.3B
DB price targets
Three scenarios for where DB stock could go
Current
~$32
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $32
Base
$25
Bull
$49
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$25-23.3%
At 7x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Deutsche Bank AG
DB · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Deutsche Bank is a global universal bank providing comprehensive financial services across corporate banking, investment banking, private banking, and asset management. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities (roughly 50%) and fee-based income from investment banking, transaction banking, and asset management services. The bank's key advantage lies in its integrated global platform—particularly strong in its home German market—and its deep corporate banking relationships across Europe.
Market Cap
$61.3B
Net Income TTM
$6.9B
DB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
30%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-5.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.85
Revenue
$8.0B/$8.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.88/$0.72
Revenue
$9.1B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.76/—
Revenue
$9.1B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.24/$1.15
Revenue
$10.0B/$9.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $0.97/$0.85 | +14.5% | $8.0B/$8.8B | -8.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.88/$0.72 | +22.2% | $9.1B/$9.0B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.76/— | — | $9.1B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $1.24/$1.15 | +7.8% | $10.0B/$9.9B | +1.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$52.5B
-13.8% YoY
FY2
$48.7B
-7.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.86
-19.9% YoY
FY2
$2.78
-2.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DB beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $14.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
46.2%
+11.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 46.2%, up 11.6% YoY.
DB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $57 — implies +84.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
84.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DB
8.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
65% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
DB
8.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
34% discount
vs DB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.8x
vs
5Y Average
10.0x
12% discount
Forward PE
9.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-50%
Financial Services
10.5x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-65%
Financial Services
13.4x
-34%
5Y Avg
10.0x
-12%
PEG Ratio
0.08x
S&P 500
1.75x
-96%
Financial Services
1.03x
-92%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-9%
Financial Services
11.4x
+22%
5Y Avg
9.6x
+46%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
5.5x
—
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-73%
Financial Services
2.3x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+13%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
2.11%
—
| Metric | DB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg DB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.5x | 19.1x-50% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.8x | 25.2x-65% | 13.4x-34% | 10.0x-12% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.08x | 1.75x-96% | 1.03x-92% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.9x | 15.3x | 11.4x+22% | 9.6x+46% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 5.5x |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-73% | 2.3x-62% | 0.8x+13% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.11% |
DB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
DB generates 8.7% ROE and 0.5% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.57
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$171.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$83.2B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageDB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory & Litigation
Deutsche Bank faces a lawsuit seeking over $800 million in damages from former employees linked to the Monte dei Paschi case. Coupled with past fines for anti‑money‑laundering and governance breaches, these legal exposures could erode capital and damage reputation. The uncertainty surrounding settlement outcomes adds significant downside risk to earnings.
High Risk
Private Credit Exposure
The bank’s private‑credit portfolio stood at €25.9 billion in 2025 and is vulnerable to higher rates, refinancing risk, and weak investor sentiment. Recent sub‑prime lending failures have spotlighted underwriting standards and potential fraud, raising concerns about credit quality. A deterioration could materially impact loan loss provisions and profitability.
Medium
Macro & Market Headwinds
Deutsche Bank is exposed to European banking volatility and macroeconomic pressures such as rising rates and economic slowdowns that can curb loan growth and deteriorate asset quality. Geopolitical tensions, notably the U.S.–Iran conflict, have heightened fears of stagflation and credit risk across the sector. These headwinds could compress margins and increase default rates.
Medium
Liquidity & Funding
The bank must maintain diverse funding sources to meet payment obligations and manage liquidity risk within its risk appetite. Stress events in funding markets could strain liquidity and force asset sales at depressed prices. Failure to uphold adequate liquidity buffers could impair operations and trigger regulatory scrutiny.
Medium
Operational & Compliance
Compliance failures with legislation, regulations, and market standards can lead to financial penalties, reputational damage, and operational disruptions. Past governance breaches have already resulted in significant fines, indicating ongoing vulnerability. Continued lapses could erode stakeholder confidence and increase regulatory costs.
Lower
Asset Management Performance
Underperformance in the asset‑management segment poses a risk to fee income and overall earnings. Declining asset values or lower client inflows could reduce revenue streams and pressure profitability. While less immediate than credit or regulatory risks, sustained underperformance could affect long‑term growth targets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Government Investment Package
The German government is allocating a €166 billion transport infrastructure package, with a significant share earmarked for railways. DB is set to receive at least 70% of its capital expenditures from state funding, reducing financial burden and enabling long‑term development.
Infrastructure Modernization Program
DB’s S3 restructuring program targets extensive renovation of key rail corridors, station upgrades, and digitalization. These initiatives aim to increase network capacity, improve reliability, and lift traffic volumes and revenue.
Debt Reduction via Schenker Sale
Proceeds from the sale of DB Schenker will be used to cut debt, strengthening the balance sheet. FFO‑to‑debt ratios are projected to stabilize above 9% in the coming years.
Traffic Volume and Revenue Upswing
As bottlenecks are removed and modernization takes effect, DB expects a rebound in long‑distance and regional transport volumes. Revenue growth will come from higher volumes and ticket price adjustments aligned with inflation.
Core Rail Focus Boosts EBITDA
Divesting DB Schenker allows DB to concentrate on low‑risk infrastructure activities, which are expected to represent a larger share of EBITDA. This strategic focus is positioned to improve profitability across business units.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$32.02
52W Range Position
39%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$26.59
+20.4% from the low
52-Week High
$40.43
-20.8% from the high
1 Month
+6.52%
3 Month
-13.97%
YTD
-19.1%
1 Year
+19.7%
3Y CAGR
+44.3%
5Y CAGR
+18.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.5x
vs 11.2x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-13.8%
vs -19.3% median
+29% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $140.3B | 13.8x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -47.9% |
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $124.5B | 10.9x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
SAN SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | $182.0B | 10.4x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -75.8% |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $86.2B | 12.5x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -24.9% |
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $82.4B | 11.2x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +83.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DB Dividend and Capital Return
DB does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
53.8%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.05 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.77 | +57.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $0.49 | +50.5% | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| 2023 | $0.33 | +53.3% | 3.0% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $0.21 | — | 2.8% | 4.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsDB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Deutsche Bank AG (DB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Deutsche Bank AG (DB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 33 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $15, implying -53.6% from the current price of $32.
02What is the DB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DB is $15 based on 33 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $29 (-9.4% from today), and the low-end target is $9 (-71.1%). The base case model target is $25.
03Is Deutsche Bank AG (DB) stock overvalued in 2026?
DB trades at 9.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Deutsche Bank AG (DB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DB in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory & Litigation — Deutsche Bank faces a lawsuit seeking over $800 million in damages from former employees linked to the Monte dei Paschi case. (2) Private Credit Exposure — The bank’s private‑credit portfolio stood at €25. (3) Macro & Market Headwinds — Deutsche Bank is exposed to European banking volatility and macroeconomic pressures such as rising rates and economic slowdowns that can curb loan growth and deteriorate asset quality. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Deutsche Bank AG's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DB will report consensus revenue of $52.5B (-13.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.86 (-19.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $48.7B in revenue.
06When does Deutsche Bank AG (DB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Deutsche Bank AG generate?
Deutsche Bank AG (DB) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. DB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).