Upside case
Bull case
$451+161.2%
HSY would need investors to value it at roughly 53x earnings — about 33x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
8 bullish · 3 bearish · 35 covering HSY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
8
Hold
24
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$224
+29.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$216 – $451
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $35.0B
HSY price targets
Three scenarios for where HSY stock could go
Current
~$173
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $173
Bear
$216
Base
$342
Bull
$451
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$342+98.3%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$216+24.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HSY down roughly 25% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Hershey Company
HSY · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Hershey is a leading confectionery and snack company that manufactures and sells chocolate, candy, and pantry items globally. It generates revenue primarily from chocolate products (~80% of sales) and non-chocolate confectionery, with additional income from salty snacks and international markets. The company's moat lies in its iconic brand portfolio—including Hershey's, Reese's, and Kit Kat—and its dominant retail distribution network in North America.
Market Cap
$35.0B
Revenue TTM
$12.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
9.1%
HSY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.21/$0.99
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.07
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.40
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.35/$2.04
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.21/$0.99 | +21.9% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30/$1.07 | +21.5% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.71/$1.40 | +22.1% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.35/$2.04 | +15.2% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$12.7B
+2.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.13
+33.1% YoY
FY2
$8.18
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 18.1%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.44
Expected Revenue
$2.6B
HSY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HSY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
North America Confectionery Segment
88.2%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Segment
87.7%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America Confectionery Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 88.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
North America Segment is the largest reported region at 87.7%, up 4.9% YoY.
HSY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $176 — implies +2.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
2.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HSY
39.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+63% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
HSY
39.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+110% premium
vs HSY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
39.8x
vs
5Y Average
26.9x
+48% premium
Forward PE
20.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+9%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
39.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+63%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+110%
5Y Avg
26.9x
+48%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+79%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+146%
5Y Avg
18.8x
+45%
Price/FCF
20.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-3%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+31%
5Y Avg
23.1x
-13%
Price/Sales
3.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-3%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+240%
5Y Avg
3.7x
-20%
Dividend Yield
3.09%
S&P 500
1.91%
+62%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+1%
5Y Avg
2.35%
+32%
| Metric | HSY | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg HSY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.4x | 18.8x | 14.2x+44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 39.8x | 24.4x+63% | 18.9x+110% | 26.9x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.2x | 15.2x+79% | 11.1x+146% | 18.8x+45% |
| Price/FCF | 20.0x | 20.7x | 15.3x+31% | 23.1x-13% |
| Price/Sales | 3.0x | 3.1x | 0.9x+240% | 3.7x-20% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.09% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.35% |
HSY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHSY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HSY generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 18.1% margin — 11.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$926M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
~2.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.34
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
122.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
203M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHSY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Cocoa price volatility
Hershey faces significant risk from cocoa price spikes, which could pressure margins and profitability.
High Risk
Consumer recession impact
A potential consumer recession could reduce demand for discretionary items like candy, hurting sales.
Medium
Trade policy uncertainty
Uncertainty around trade policies could disrupt supply chains or increase costs for Hershey.
Medium
Inflationary pressures
Persistent inflation may erode consumer purchasing power and increase input costs for Hershey.
Medium
Valuation concerns
Current stock valuation may already reflect baseline scenarios, limiting upside potential.
Lower
Competitive discounting
Competitors like Lidl offering discounted products could pressure Hershey's market share and pricing power.
Lower
GLP-1 drug impact
Potential long-term demand headwinds from GLP-1 drugs reducing candy consumption.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HSY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong 2026 outlook
The Hershey Company reaffirmed its 2026 outlook, including mid-single-digit net and organic sales growth and very large reported earnings per share growth.
Market share and pricing power
The company has strong market share and pricing power, which supports its margins and long-term growth.
Sustainability and portfolio refresh
Hershey is refreshing its sustainability approach to align with a growing salty snacks portfolio and tighter regulatory expectations.
Analyst bullish thesis
Analysts have highlighted Hershey's strong fundamentals, including valuation multiples, smart-money flows, and analyst positioning.
Management and strategic changes
The company is undergoing management changes, including the departure of its US President, while focusing on strategic updates.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HSY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$172.63
52W Range Position
16%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$160.07
+7.8% from the low
52-Week High
$239.48
-27.9% from the high
1 Month
-9.96%
3 Month
-18.85%
YTD
-5.4%
1 Year
+1.7%
3Y CAGR
-12.6%
5Y CAGR
+0.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HSY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.4x
vs 17.2x median
+19% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.5%
vs +3.3% median
+6% above peer median
Net Margin
9.1%
vs 11.5% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HSY HSY The Hershey Company | $35.0B | 20.4x | +3.5% | 9.1% | Hold | +29.9% |
MDL MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $77.2B | 19.7x | +3.3% | 6.6% | Buy | +11.4% |
TR TR Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | $2.7B | 19.3x | +3.5% | 13.7% | — | — |
RMC RMCF Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. | $12M | — | -7.0% | -16.6% | — | — |
MKC MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $11.8B | 15.1x | +7.1% | 11.5% | Hold | +47.4% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $17.8B | 9.8x | +0.9% | 12.1% | Hold | +11.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HSY Dividend and Capital Return
HSY returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 3.09% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
3.09%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How HSY Splits Its Return
Div 3.09%
Dividend 3.09%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.34
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.3%
5Y Div CAGR
11.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
203M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $5.48 | +23.0% | 1.4% | 4.6% |
| 2023 | $4.46 | +15.0% | 0.7% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $3.87 | +13.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHSY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Hershey Company (HSY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Hershey Company (HSY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 8 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 24 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $224, implying +29.9% from the current price of $173. The bear case scenario is $216 and the bull case is $451.
02What is the HSY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HSY is $224 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+50.6% from today), and the low-end target is $182 (+5.4%). The base case model target is $342.
03Is The Hershey Company (HSY) stock overvalued in 2026?
HSY trades at 20.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Hershey Company (HSY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HSY in 2026 are: (1) Cocoa price volatility — Hershey faces significant risk from cocoa price spikes, which could pressure margins and profitability. (2) Consumer recession impact — A potential consumer recession could reduce demand for discretionary items like candy, hurting sales. (3) Trade policy uncertainty — Uncertainty around trade policies could disrupt supply chains or increase costs for Hershey. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Hershey Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HSY will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+3.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.13 (+33.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.7B in revenue.
06When does The Hershey Company (HSY) report its next earnings?
The Hershey Company is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $1.44 and revenue of $2.6B. Over recent quarters, HSY has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does The Hershey Company generate?
The Hershey Company (HSY) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.1%. HSY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).