Upside case
Bull case
$567+204.0%
HSY would need investors to value it at roughly 67x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
6 bullish · 3 bearish · 35 covering HSY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
6
Hold
26
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$226
+21.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$198 – $567
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $37.8B
HSY price targets
Three scenarios for where HSY stock could go
Current
~$186
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $186
Bear
$198
Base
$350
Bull
$567
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$350+87.5%
At 42x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$198+6.2%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HSY down roughly 6% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Hershey Company
HSY · NYSEConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Hershey is a leading confectionery and snack company that manufactures and sells chocolate, candy, and pantry items globally. It generates revenue primarily from chocolate products (~80% of sales) and non-chocolate confectionery, with additional income from salty snacks and international markets. The company's moat lies in its iconic brand portfolio—including Hershey's, Reese's, and Kit Kat—and its dominant retail distribution network in North America.
Market Cap
$37.8B
Revenue TTM
$12.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
9.1%
HSY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.21/$0.99
Revenue
$2.6B/$2.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.30/$1.07
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.71/$1.40
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.35/$2.04
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.21/$0.99 | +21.9% | $2.6B/$2.5B | +3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30/$1.07 | +21.5% | $3.2B/$3.1B | +2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.71/$1.40 | +22.1% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.35/$2.04 | +15.2% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.4B
+3.6% YoY
FY2
$13.0B
+4.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.27
+35.8% YoY
FY2
$8.14
+11.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.2B
FCF Margin: 18.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HSY beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HSY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $10.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
North America Confectionery Segment
88.2%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America Segment
87.7%
+4.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America Confectionery Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 88.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
North America Segment is the largest reported region at 87.7%, up 4.9% YoY.
HSY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $122 — implies -33.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HSY
43.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+70% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
HSY
43.0x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+119% premium
vs HSY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
43.0x
vs
5Y Average
26.9x
+60% premium
Forward PE
22.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+16%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+51%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
43.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
+70%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+119%
5Y Avg
26.9x
+60%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
+91%
Consumer Defensive
11.4x
+155%
5Y Avg
18.8x
+55%
Price/FCF
21.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1%
Consumer Defensive
15.7x
+37%
5Y Avg
23.1x
-7%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+282%
5Y Avg
3.7x
-14%
Dividend Yield
2.86%
S&P 500
1.88%
+53%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+5%
5Y Avg
2.35%
+22%
| Metric | HSY | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg HSY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.2x | 19.1x+16% | 14.6x+51% | — |
| Trailing PE | 43.0x | 25.2x+70% | 19.6x+119% | 26.9x+60% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.2x | 15.3x+91% | 11.4x+155% | 18.8x+55% |
| Price/FCF | 21.6x | 21.3x | 15.7x+37% | 23.1x |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 0.8x+282% | 3.7x-14% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.86% | 1.88% | 2.73% | 2.35% |
HSY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHSY Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HSY generates $2.2B in free cash flow at a 18.1% margin — 11.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 2.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.36
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
18.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$926M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.1× FCF
~2.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
23.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.9%
Dividend
2.9%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.34
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
122.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
203M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHSY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
Cocoa and sugar price volatility has already increased production costs, compressing profit margins. Recent spikes in cocoa prices have been significant, though specific figures are not disclosed. Continued volatility could erode earnings if costs rise faster than pricing power.
High Risk
Supply Chain Disruptions
Disruptions in cocoa supply from West Africa due to weather, crop disease, and regulatory shifts can impair production and delivery. Such disruptions could delay product availability and increase logistics costs. The company’s reliance on a single geographic region heightens this risk.
Medium
Rising Input Costs
Increases in raw material and energy costs, along with supply constraints, can negatively affect future financial results. Higher input costs may reduce margins if the company cannot pass costs to consumers. The company monitors energy prices and seeks hedging strategies.
Medium
Demand Headwinds
Factors such as GLP-1 drug adoption, discretionary spending pullback, and channel slowdowns can reduce demand for Hershey’s products. These headwinds may pressure sales volumes and revenue growth. The company monitors consumer trends and adjusts marketing spend accordingly.
Medium
Regulatory and ESG Compliance
Evolving regulations on sugar content, marketing to children, and supply chain due diligence (deforestation, labor) increase compliance costs. Non‑compliance could lead to fines or product recalls. Hershey invests in ESG initiatives to mitigate regulatory exposure.
Medium
Brand Reputation Risks
Reputational risks arise from allegations of ingredient switching, labor concerns in cocoa sourcing, and lawsuits over heavy metals. Negative publicity could erode brand equity and consumer trust. The company maintains transparency and engages in third‑party audits.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HSY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Undervalued Share Price
Analysts estimate Hershey’s fair value at $267.00 per share, a 22.5% discount to its current price. A discounted cash flow model projects an intrinsic value of $299.44, implying a 30.9% undervaluation.
Commodity Cost Relief & Margin Recovery
Easing cocoa costs and tariff relief, combined with supply‑chain efficiencies, are expected to lift gross margins. Hershey’s 2026 outlook projects margin recovery that will offset higher strategic investments and interest expenses.
Steady Revenue & EPS Growth
Projected revenue growth is about 4.37% annually. For 2026, adjusted EPS is expected to rise 30%–35% versus 2025, and the Zacks Consensus Estimate reflects nearly 30% growth over the prior year.
Strategic Expansion into Snacks & Premium
Hershey is expanding into new snack categories, focusing on premium products, and pursuing international growth. The company is investing in technology and a robust innovation pipeline that will continue through 2027, covering salty snacks and chocolate.
Strong Brand & Shareholder Returns
Hershey is a global confectionery leader diversifying into pantry, refreshment, and snack items. The company returns a significant portion of free cash flow to shareholders and pays a dividend yield of roughly 2.78%–3.00%.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HSY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$186.41
52W Range Position
41%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$150.04
+24.2% from the low
52-Week High
$239.48
-22.2% from the high
1 Month
-10.37%
3 Month
-19.49%
YTD
+2.2%
1 Year
+9.6%
3Y CAGR
-12.1%
5Y CAGR
+2.0%
10Y CAGR
+7.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HSY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.2x
vs 17.9x median
+24% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.6%
vs +5.9% median
-39% below peer median
Net Margin
9.1%
vs 11.5% median
-21% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HSY HSY The Hershey Company | $37.8B | 22.2x | +3.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +21.4% |
MDL MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $79.4B | 20.2x | +4.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +8.3% |
TR TR Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. | $3.1B | 22.3x | +62.8% | 13.7% | — | — |
RMC RMCF Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory, Inc. | $21M | — | +6.1% | -13.6% | — | — |
MKC MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $12.3B | 15.7x | +5.9% | 11.5% | Hold | +51.0% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $18.7B | 10.2x | -0.1% | 12.1% | Hold | +32.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HSY Dividend and Capital Return
HSY returns 2.9% total yield, led by a 2.89% dividend, raised 34 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.89%
Payout Ratio
1.2%
How HSY Splits Its Return
Div 2.89%
Dividend 2.89%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.34
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
34Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.3%
5Y Div CAGR
11.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
203M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.48 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $5.48 | +23.0% | 1.4% | 4.6% |
| 2023 | $4.46 | +15.0% | 0.7% | 3.0% |
| 2022 | $3.87 | +13.6% | 0.8% | 2.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsHSY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Hershey Company (HSY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Hershey Company (HSY) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 6 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 26 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $226, implying +21.4% from the current price of $186. The bear case scenario is $198 and the bull case is $567.
02What is the HSY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HSY is $226 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $267 (+43.2% from today), and the low-end target is $181 (-2.9%). The base case model target is $350.
03Is The Hershey Company (HSY) stock overvalued in 2026?
HSY trades at 22.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Hershey Company (HSY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HSY in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — Cocoa and sugar price volatility has already increased production costs, compressing profit margins. (2) Supply Chain Disruptions — Disruptions in cocoa supply from West Africa due to weather, crop disease, and regulatory shifts can impair production and delivery. (3) Rising Input Costs — Increases in raw material and energy costs, along with supply constraints, can negatively affect future financial results. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Hershey Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HSY will report consensus revenue of $12.4B (+3.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.27 (+35.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.0B in revenue.
06When does The Hershey Company (HSY) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HSY is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Hershey Company generate?
The Hershey Company (HSY) generated $2.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 18.1%. HSY returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.9% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).