Upside case
Bull case
$184+197.6%
MDLZ would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 40x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
31 bullish · 2 bearish · 41 covering MDLZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
8
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+8.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$69 – $184
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
20.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $79.4B
MDLZ price targets
Three scenarios for where MDLZ stock could go
Current
~$62
Confidence
67 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $62
Bear
$69
Base
$101
Bull
$184
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$101+63.9%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$69+11.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MDLZ down roughly 12% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mondelez International, Inc.
MDLZ · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Mondelez International is a global snack food company that manufactures and markets popular brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across three main segments: biscuits (~40% of revenue), chocolate (~30%), and gum & candy (~15%), with the remainder from beverages and cheese. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic, globally recognized brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive global distribution networks.
Market Cap
$79.4B
Revenue TTM
$39.3B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
6.6%
MDLZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.68
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.72
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$10.5B/$10.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.67/$0.61
Revenue
$10.1B/$9.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.68 | +7.8% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73/$0.72 | +0.8% | $9.7B/$9.7B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72/$0.70 | +3.4% | $10.5B/$10.3B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.67/$0.61 | +10.2% | $10.1B/$9.7B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$41.0B
+4.4% YoY
FY2
$43.4B
+5.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.73
+35.1% YoY
FY2
$3.10
+13.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 6.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MDLZ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDLZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $38.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Biscuits
47.7%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe Segment
39.0%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Biscuits is the largest disclosed segment at 47.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.3% YoY.
Europe Segment is the largest reported region at 39.0%, up 12.9% YoY.
MDLZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $41 — implies -33.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDLZ
32.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+30% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MDLZ
32.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+67% premium
vs MDLZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
32.7x
vs
5Y Average
24.4x
+34% premium
Forward PE
20.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
+6%
Consumer Defensive
14.6x
+38%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
32.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
+30%
Consumer Defensive
19.6x
+67%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+34%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.85x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+32%
Consumer Defensive
11.5x
+74%
5Y Avg
18.4x
+9%
Price/FCF
24.6x
S&P 500
21.3x
+15%
Consumer Defensive
14.8x
+66%
5Y Avg
26.4x
-7%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-34%
Consumer Defensive
0.8x
+149%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-21%
Dividend Yield
3.10%
S&P 500
1.87%
+66%
Consumer Defensive
2.73%
+13%
5Y Avg
2.55%
+21%
| Metric | MDLZ | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MDLZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 20.2x | 19.1x | 14.6x+38% | — |
| Trailing PE | 32.7x | 25.2x+30% | 19.6x+67% | 24.4x+34% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.85x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.0x | 15.2x+32% | 11.5x+74% | 18.4x |
| Price/FCF | 24.6x | 21.3x+15% | 14.8x+66% | 26.4x |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-34% | 0.8x+149% | 2.6x-21% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.10% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 2.55% |
MDLZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDLZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MDLZ returns 6.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$20.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.9× FCF
~7.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
3.1%
Buyback
3.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
101.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMDLZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Input Costs & Supply Chain
Unprecedented rises in cocoa prices have directly increased production costs, squeezing profit margins. The company’s reliance on commodity inputs makes it vulnerable to volatile price swings, potentially eroding earnings if costs cannot be fully passed to consumers.
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Political Environment
Global economic slowdowns, high unemployment, inflation, and interest rate volatility reduce consumer discretionary spending. The Ukraine war has already disrupted supply chains and financial performance, adding geopolitical uncertainty to the mix.
Medium
International Operations & Trade
With over 74% of revenue generated outside the United States, tariffs, trade disputes, economic sanctions, and shifting trade policies expose Mondelez to significant operational risks. Emerging market success is critical but carries heightened political and regulatory exposure.
Medium
Consumer Behavior & Health Regulations
Shifting preferences toward healthier snacks and growing scrutiny over sugar content could force product reformulation or pricing changes. Potential government regulations on unhealthy products may limit sales of certain portfolio items.
Lower
Currency Exchange Rates
Fluctuations in foreign currencies can erode earnings from international markets. Volatility in global markets and actions by foreign governments increase the difficulty of hedging currency risks.
Lower
Cybersecurity
Increasing cyber threats necessitate ongoing investment in robust cybersecurity frameworks to protect sensitive data and operations. A breach could lead to regulatory penalties and reputational damage.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDLZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Pricing Power & Brand Resilience
Mondelez has repeatedly raised prices while keeping demand largely unchanged, especially in its chocolate segment. This pricing strength lets the company absorb inflationary costs and protect margins.
Emerging Markets Double‑Digit Growth
Emerging markets have delivered double‑digit organic revenue growth over the past five years and continue to be a key engine for the business. Their contribution to total revenue underscores a robust expansion pipeline.
Core Snacks Revenue Shift
The firm is realigning its mix to focus on core snack categories, targeting 90% of revenues from these segments by 2030. This strategic pivot aims to capture higher‑margin, high‑growth product lines.
Supply‑Chain Modernization & Efficiency
Mondelez is investing in North American supply‑chain upgrades and operational efficiencies to curb cost pressures. These initiatives are expected to lift profitability as commodity prices remain neutral through 2026.
Consistent Shareholder Returns
The company maintains a dividend yield above its historical average and regularly executes share buybacks. This commitment to returning capital signals confidence in cash flow and long‑term value creation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDLZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$61.87
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.20
+20.8% from the low
52-Week High
$71.15
-13.0% from the high
1 Month
+5.98%
3 Month
+3.08%
YTD
+15.3%
1 Year
-8.4%
3Y CAGR
-7.5%
5Y CAGR
+0.0%
10Y CAGR
+3.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDLZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
20.2x
vs 10.7x median
+89% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+4.4%
vs +2.7% median
+65% above peer median
Net Margin
6.6%
vs 9.1% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDL MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $79.4B | 20.2x | +4.4% | 6.6% | Buy | +8.3% |
HSY HSY The Hershey Company | $37.8B | 22.2x | +3.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +21.4% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.2B | 9.6x | +2.7% | 5.5% | Hold | +23.2% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $18.7B | 10.2x | -0.1% | 12.1% | Hold | +32.8% |
K K Kellanova | $29.0B | 22.1x | +0.3% | 10.6% | Hold | -11.3% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $10.3B | 10.7x | +3.6% | -14.1% | Hold | +17.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDLZ Dividend and Capital Return
MDLZ returns 6.1% total yield, led by a 3.10% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.0%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.0%
Dividend Yield
3.10%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How MDLZ Splits Its Return
Div 3.10%
Buyback 3.0%
Dividend 3.10%Buybacks 3.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.7%
5Y Div CAGR
10.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
39M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 3.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.50 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.94 | +8.4% | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $1.79 | +10.5% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| 2023 | $1.62 | +10.2% | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $1.47 | +10.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMDLZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +8.3% from the current price of $62. The bear case scenario is $69 and the bull case is $184.
02What is the MDLZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDLZ is $67 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $73 (+18.0% from today), and the low-end target is $61 (-1.4%). The base case model target is $101.
03Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDLZ trades at 20.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDLZ in 2026 are: (1) Input Costs & Supply Chain — Unprecedented rises in cocoa prices have directly increased production costs, squeezing profit margins. (2) Macroeconomic & Political Environment — Global economic slowdowns, high unemployment, inflation, and interest rate volatility reduce consumer discretionary spending. (3) International Operations & Trade — With over 74% of revenue generated outside the United States, tariffs, trade disputes, economic sanctions, and shifting trade policies expose Mondelez to significant operational risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Mondelez International, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDLZ will report consensus revenue of $41.0B (+4.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.73 (+35.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $43.4B in revenue.
06When does Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MDLZ is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Mondelez International, Inc. generate?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.6%. MDLZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.1% yield) and share repurchases ($2.4B TTM).