Upside case
Bull case
$134+122.7%
MDLZ would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 24x more generous than today's 20x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
41
analysts
31 bullish · 2 bearish · 41 covering MDLZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
8
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$67
+11.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$64 – $134
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
41
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $77.2B
MDLZ price targets
Three scenarios for where MDLZ stock could go
Current
~$60
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $60
Bear
$64
Base
$102
Bull
$134
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$102+69.0%
At 33x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$64+6.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push MDLZ down roughly 6% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Mondelez International, Inc.
MDLZ · NASDAQConsumer DefensiveFood ConfectionersDecember year-end
Mondelez International is a global snack food company that manufactures and markets popular brands like Oreo, Cadbury, and Milka. It generates revenue primarily through product sales across three main segments: biscuits (~40% of revenue), chocolate (~30%), and gum & candy (~15%), with the remainder from beverages and cheese. The company's competitive advantage lies in its portfolio of iconic, globally recognized brands with strong consumer loyalty and extensive global distribution networks.
Market Cap
$77.2B
Revenue TTM
$39.3B
Net Income TTM
$2.6B
Net Margin
6.6%
MDLZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.68
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.73/$0.72
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$10.5B/$10.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.67/$0.61
Revenue
$10.1B/$9.7B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.73/$0.68 | +7.8% | $9.0B/$8.9B | +1.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.73/$0.72 | +0.8% | $9.7B/$9.7B | +0.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72/$0.70 | +3.4% | $10.5B/$10.3B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.67/$0.61 | +10.2% | $10.1B/$9.7B | +3.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$40.6B
+3.3% YoY
FY2
$41.6B
+2.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.68
+32.5% YoY
FY2
$3.05
+13.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.6B
FCF Margin: 6.6%
Next Earnings
July 28, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.69
Expected Revenue
$9.2B
MDLZ beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
MDLZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $38.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Biscuits
47.7%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe Segment
39.0%
+12.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Biscuits is the largest disclosed segment at 47.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.3% YoY.
Europe Segment is the largest reported region at 39.0%, up 12.9% YoY.
MDLZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $45 — implies -24.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
24.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MDLZ
31.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+30% premium
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MDLZ
31.8x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+68% premium
vs MDLZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
31.8x
vs
5Y Average
24.4x
+31% premium
Forward PE
19.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
+5%
Consumer Defensive
14.2x
+39%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
31.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+30%
Consumer Defensive
18.9x
+68%
5Y Avg
24.4x
+31%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Defensive
1.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+29%
Consumer Defensive
11.1x
+77%
5Y Avg
18.4x
+6%
Price/FCF
23.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
+15%
Consumer Defensive
15.3x
+56%
5Y Avg
26.4x
-10%
Price/Sales
2.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-35%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+127%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-23%
Dividend Yield
3.19%
S&P 500
1.91%
+67%
Consumer Defensive
3.06%
+4%
5Y Avg
2.55%
+25%
| Metric | MDLZ | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MDLZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.7x | 18.8x | 14.2x+39% | — |
| Trailing PE | 31.8x | 24.4x+30% | 18.9x+68% | 24.4x+31% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.6x | 15.2x+29% | 11.1x+77% | 18.4x |
| Price/FCF | 23.9x | 20.7x+15% | 15.3x+56% | 26.4x |
| Price/Sales | 2.0x | 3.1x-35% | 0.9x+127% | 2.6x-23% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.19% | 1.91% | 3.06% | 2.55% |
MDLZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMDLZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MDLZ returns 6.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$39.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
28.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$20.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.9× FCF
~7.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.3%
Dividend
3.2%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.92
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
101.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMDLZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Competitive pressures
Mondelez operates in a highly competitive snack food industry with global players, risking market share erosion.
Medium
Leverage and credit risk
Balance sheet review indicates potential risks from leverage and credit ratings, impacting financial flexibility.
High Risk
Acquisition integration
Strategic acquisitions carry execution risks, including overpaying or failing to integrate successfully.
Medium
Commodity price volatility
As a snack food company, Mondelez faces risks from fluctuating raw material costs impacting margins.
Lower
Geographic concentration
Operations in over 150 countries diversify risk but expose the company to regional economic downturns.
High Risk
Regulatory challenges
Global operations subject Mondelez to varying food safety and labeling regulations, increasing compliance costs.
Medium
Brand portfolio risks
Diverse brand heritage requires constant innovation and marketing to maintain consumer relevance.
Lower
Insider activity
Recent insider transactions may signal confidence concerns but require deeper context for severity assessment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MDLZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Strong brand portfolio
Mondelez boasts a diverse and heritage-rich portfolio of globally recognized snack and confectionery brands, supporting long-term stability.
Resilient volume growth
The company has demonstrated consistent volume growth, even amidst challenges like cocoa inflation, highlighting its operational resilience.
Attractive valuation
Mondelez's trailing and forward P/E ratios suggest the stock is attractively valued, presenting a potential investment opportunity.
Global market presence
With operations in over 150 countries, Mondelez benefits from a vast international footprint and exposure to high-growth snack markets.
Scale and brand loyalty
The company's large scale and strong brand loyalty provide a competitive edge and support long-term stability in the snack industry.
Leadership in biscuits
Mondelez is a leader in the biscuit category, with a strong portfolio that includes confectioneries and baked goods, driving growth in the snack sector.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MDLZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$60.12
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$51.20
+17.4% from the low
52-Week High
$71.15
-15.5% from the high
1 Month
-2.47%
3 Month
+6.46%
YTD
+12.1%
1 Year
-9.4%
3Y CAGR
-6.4%
5Y CAGR
-0.7%
10Y CAGR
+3.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MDLZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.7x
vs 12.3x median
+60% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.3%
vs +2.7% median
+22% above peer median
Net Margin
6.6%
vs 9.1% median
-27% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MDL MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $77.2B | 19.7x | +3.3% | 6.6% | Buy | +11.4% |
HSY HSY The Hershey Company | $35.0B | 20.4x | +3.5% | 9.1% | Hold | +29.9% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.3B | 9.7x | +2.7% | 6.1% | Hold | -2.3% |
GIS GIS General Mills, Inc. | $17.8B | 9.8x | +0.9% | 12.1% | Hold | +11.6% |
K K Kellanova | $29.0B | 22.1x | +1.3% | 10.6% | Hold | -11.3% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $11.8B | 12.3x | +3.0% | -1.5% | Buy | +8.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MDLZ Dividend and Capital Return
MDLZ returns 6.3% total yield, led by a 3.19% dividend, raised 12 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 3.1%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
6.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
3.19%
Payout Ratio
1.0%
How MDLZ Splits Its Return
Div 3.19%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 3.19%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.92
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
9.7%
5Y Div CAGR
10.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
40M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.94 | +8.4% | 3.4% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $1.79 | +10.5% | 2.9% | 5.8% |
| 2023 | $1.62 | +10.2% | 1.6% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $1.47 | +10.5% | 2.2% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsMDLZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 41 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $67, implying +11.4% from the current price of $60. The bear case scenario is $64 and the bull case is $134.
02What is the MDLZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MDLZ is $67 based on 41 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $73 (+21.4% from today), and the low-end target is $61 (+1.5%). The base case model target is $102.
03Is Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
MDLZ trades at 19.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MDLZ in 2026 are: (1) Competitive pressures — Mondelez operates in a highly competitive snack food industry with global players, risking market share erosion. (2) Acquisition integration — Strategic acquisitions carry execution risks, including overpaying or failing to integrate successfully. (3) Regulatory challenges — Global operations subject Mondelez to varying food safety and labeling regulations, increasing compliance costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Mondelez International, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MDLZ will report consensus revenue of $40.6B (+3.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.68 (+32.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $41.6B in revenue.
06When does Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) report its next earnings?
Mondelez International, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-28. Consensus expects EPS of $0.69 and revenue of $9.2B. Over recent quarters, MDLZ has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Mondelez International, Inc. generate?
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) generated $2.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.6%. MDLZ returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.2% yield) and share repurchases ($2.4B TTM).