Upside case
Bull case
$423+894.9%
HTHT would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 2x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
H World Group Limited (HTHT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
11 bullish · 3 bearish · 19 covering HTHT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
5
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
+46.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$202 – $423
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.1B
HTHT price targets
Three scenarios for where HTHT stock could go
Current
~$43
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $43
Bear
$202
Base
$321
Bull
$423
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$321+655.1%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$202+375.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HTHT down roughly 376% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
H World Group Limited
HTHT · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
H World Group is a major hotel operator in China that develops and manages a portfolio of economy and midscale hotel brands. It generates revenue primarily through hotel operations — including leased and owned hotels, manachised properties (a hybrid model), and franchised hotels — with management fees and room sales as key income streams. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive network scale across China, strong brand portfolio covering multiple price segments, and sophisticated operating systems that drive efficiency across its thousands of properties.
Market Cap
$13.1B
Revenue TTM
$25.8B
Net Income TTM
$5.0B
Net Margin
19.3%
HTHT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.56
Revenue
$896M/$879M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.64
Revenue
$978M/$895M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.41
Revenue
$933M/$915M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.49/$0.46
Revenue
$869M/$837M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.59/$0.56 | +5.4% | $896M/$879M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.64 | +4.7% | $978M/$895M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$0.41 | +41.5% | $933M/$915M | +2.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.49/$0.46 | +6.5% | $869M/$837M | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$28.3B
+9.8% YoY
FY2
$30.1B
+6.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$15.99
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$16.17
+1.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.2B
FCF Margin: 27.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
HTHT beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
HTHT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $49.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Leased And Owned Hotels
25.9%
-6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
81.0%
+8.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Leased And Owned Hotels is the largest disclosed segment at 25.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 6.5% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 81.0%, up 8.0% YoY.
HTHT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $664 — implies +1461.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
1461.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HTHT
18.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
23% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HTHT
18.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
11% discount
vs HTHT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.9x
vs
5Y Average
3.1x
+516% premium
Forward PE
2.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-88%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-86%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-23%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-11%
5Y Avg
3.1x
+516%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+1%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+26%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-19%
Price/FCF
12.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-42%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-23%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+54%
Price/Sales
3.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
+16%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+414%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+420%
Dividend Yield
4.07%
S&P 500
1.91%
+113%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+87%
5Y Avg
3.15%
+29%
| Metric | HTHT | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HTHT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.3x | 18.8x-88% | 16.3x-86% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.9x | 24.4x-23% | 21.2x-11% | 3.1x+516% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.3x | 15.2x | 12.2x+26% | 18.9x-19% |
| Price/FCF | 12.0x | 20.7x-42% | 15.6x-23% | 7.8x+54% |
| Price/Sales | 3.6x | 3.1x+16% | 0.7x+414% | 0.7x+420% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.07% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 3.15% |
HTHT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHTHT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HTHT generates $7.2B in free cash flow at a 27.8% margin — 11.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
40.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
27.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
19.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$25.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.6× FCF
~3.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
41.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (11.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
4.1%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$762M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$11.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
76.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
307M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHTHT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Profitability concerns
First-quarter 2026 update showed softer profitability and same-hotel demand metrics despite revenue growth.
Medium
Leadership transition
CFO transition introduces potential uncertainty in financial strategy and execution.
Lower
Sector volatility
Stock performance may be impacted by broader sector volatility despite current resilience.
High Risk
Competitive benchmarking
Benchmarking against industry leaders like Marriott and Hilton highlights potential competitive pressures.
Medium
Execution risk
Ongoing hotel expansion and asset-light strategy carry execution risks in a dynamic market.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HTHT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong profit growth
H World Group Limited reported strong profit growth in its Q4 2025 earnings call, indicating robust financial performance.
Asset-light expansion plan
The company is accelerating its asset-light expansion plan, including opening 2,200-2,300 hotels and closing 600-700 properties in 2026 to refine its portfolio.
Fee-based operations growth
A key insight from the earnings update is the increasing weight of fee-based franchise and manachised operations in H World's earnings.
EBITDA beat
H World Group's 19.5% EBITDA beat in 4Q2025 was driven by capital-light expansion and international hotel portfolio optimization.
AI-driven operations
The bullish thesis on HTHT emphasizes its AI-driven operations, which could enhance efficiency and scalability.
Domestic scale advantage
H World Group Limited's domestic scale is highlighted as a competitive advantage, supporting its growth and market position.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HTHT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$42.51
52W Range Position
46%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$30.41
+39.8% from the low
52-Week High
$56.64
-24.9% from the high
1 Month
-6.59%
3 Month
-15.29%
YTD
-11.4%
1 Year
+27.6%
3Y CAGR
+1.5%
5Y CAGR
-4.9%
10Y CAGR
+17.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HTHT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.3x
vs 34.2x median
-93% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.8%
vs +6.1% median
+60% above peer median
Net Margin
19.3%
vs 12.6% median
+54% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HTH HTHT H World Group Limited | $13.1B | 2.3x | +9.8% | 19.3% | Buy | +46.8% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $25.7B | 30.0x | +5.1% | 13.7% | Buy | -7.1% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $19.3B | 57.2x | +13.2% | -0.5% | Hold | -3.5% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $79.4B | 38.6x | +7.8% | 12.6% | Buy | -1.9% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $104.5B | 34.2x | +6.1% | 9.7% | Hold | -0.8% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.6x | +1.6% | 13.4% | Buy | +15.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HTHT Dividend and Capital Return
HTHT returns 4.9% total yield, led by a 4.07% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.9%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
4.07%
Payout Ratio
76.9%
How HTHT Splits Its Return
Div 4.07%
Dividend 4.07%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$11.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
103.9%
5Y Div CAGR
39.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$762M
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
307M
At 5.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.78 | +182.5% | 5.0% | 29.9% |
| 2024 | $0.63 | -32.3% | 10.8% | 43.4% |
| 2023 | $0.93 | +342.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $0.21 | — | 2.5% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsHTHT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
H World Group Limited (HTHT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying +46.8% from the current price of $43. The bear case scenario is $202 and the bull case is $423.
02What is the HTHT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HTHT is $62 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $62 (+46.8% from today), and the low-end target is $62 (+46.8%). The base case model target is $321.
03Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock overvalued in 2026?
HTHT trades at 2.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HTHT in 2026 are: (1) Competitive benchmarking — Benchmarking against industry leaders like Marriott and Hilton highlights potential competitive pressures. (2) Profitability concerns — First-quarter 2026 update showed softer profitability and same-hotel demand metrics despite revenue growth. (3) Leadership transition — CFO transition introduces potential uncertainty in financial strategy and execution. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is H World Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HTHT will report consensus revenue of $28.3B (+9.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $15.99 (+5.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $30.1B in revenue.
06When does H World Group Limited (HTHT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for HTHT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does H World Group Limited generate?
H World Group Limited (HTHT) generated $7.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.8%. HTHT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.1% yield) and share repurchases ($762M TTM).