Upside case
Bull case
$827+1594.3%
HTHT would need investors to value it at roughly 46x earnings — about 43x more generous than today's 3x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
H World Group Limited (HTHT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
11 bullish · 3 bearish · 19 covering HTHT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
5
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$62
+27.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $827
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
2.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.0B
HTHT price targets
Three scenarios for where HTHT stock could go
Current
~$49
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $49
Base
$468
Bull
$827
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$468+858.3%
At 26x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
H World Group Limited
HTHT · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalTravel LodgingDecember year-end
H World Group is a major hotel operator in China that develops and manages a portfolio of economy and midscale hotel brands. It generates revenue primarily through hotel operations — including leased and owned hotels, manachised properties (a hybrid model), and franchised hotels — with management fees and room sales as key income streams. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive network scale across China, strong brand portfolio covering multiple price segments, and sophisticated operating systems that drive efficiency across its thousands of properties.
Market Cap
$16.0B
Revenue TTM
$25.2B
Net Income TTM
$5.1B
Net Margin
20.1%
HTHT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.42
Revenue
$741M/$744M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.56
Revenue
$896M/$879M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.67/$0.64
Revenue
$978M/$895M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.58/$0.41
Revenue
$933M/$915M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.34/$0.42 | -19.0% | $741M/$744M | -0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.59/$0.56 | +5.4% | $896M/$879M | +1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.67/$0.64 | +4.7% | $978M/$895M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58/$0.41 | +41.5% | $933M/$915M | +2.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.9B
+10.7% YoY
FY2
$31.0B
+11.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$18.55
+19.3% YoY
FY2
$21.93
+18.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.5B
FCF Margin: 29.6%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.46
Expected Revenue
$835M
HTHT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HTHT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $47.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Leased And Owned Hotels
29.3%
+0.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
79.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Leased And Owned Hotels is the largest disclosed segment at 29.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 0.3% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 79.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
HTHT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $423 — implies +731.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
731.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HTHT
21.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
15% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HTHT
21.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+9% premium
vs HTHT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.3x
vs
5Y Average
3.0x
+601% premium
Forward PE
2.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-86%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-82%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-15%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+9%
5Y Avg
3.0x
+601%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
18.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+60%
5Y Avg
18.9x
-4%
Price/FCF
14.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-30%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-1%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+91%
Price/Sales
4.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+41%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+523%
5Y Avg
0.7x
+543%
Dividend Yield
3.52%
S&P 500
1.88%
+87%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+64%
5Y Avg
3.15%
+12%
| Metric | HTHT | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HTHT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 2.7x | 19.1x-86% | 15.2x-82% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.3x | 25.2x-15% | 19.6x | 3.0x+601% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.1x | 15.3x+19% | 11.4x+60% | 18.9x |
| Price/FCF | 14.9x | 21.3x-30% | 15.0x | 7.8x+91% |
| Price/Sales | 4.4x | 3.1x+41% | 0.7x+523% | 0.7x+543% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.52% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 3.15% |
HTHT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHTHT Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
HTHT generates $7.5B in free cash flow at a 29.6% margin — 11.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$25.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
39.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
26.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
20.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$15.55
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$10.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$25.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.4× FCF
~3.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (11.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.2%
Dividend
3.5%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$762M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$11.70
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
76.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
325M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHTHT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks
H World Group operates in China, where evolving regulations regarding overseas listings, cybersecurity, and data security could significantly impact operations. Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and China may affect access to U.S. capital markets and the valuation of its American Depositary Shares (ADSs).
High Risk
PCAOB Inspections Risk
The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act mandates U.S. regulators to inspect audits of U.S.-listed Chinese companies. If the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) cannot conduct these inspections, HTHT's ADSs may face delisting from U.S. exchanges, severely impacting stock value.
Medium
Operational and Market Risks
H World Group's aggressive expansion strategy, including opening numerous new hotels, poses risks related to revenue per available room (RevPAR) and overall unit economics. Rapid openings in weaker local markets could pressure financial performance.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
HTHT's current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds the industry average, raising concerns about valuation. Analyst sentiment, including recent downgrades, could further influence stock prices.
Lower
Execution Risks
The success of H World Group's expansion strategy is contingent on effective execution. Challenges in this area could negatively impact margin assumptions and overall financial performance.
Lower
Overexpansion and Cannibalization
The company faces risks of overexpansion and cannibalization in lower-tier cities as it refreshes its portfolio. This could lead to diminished returns in certain markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HTHT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Asset-Light Expansion
H World Group plans to open a significant number of new hotels, targeting 2,200–2,300 openings by 2026. This strategy focuses on franchised and manachised operations, which require less capital and are expected to drive future growth.
Strong Financial Performance
The company has demonstrated strong profit growth, with Q4 2025 EBITDA exceeding analyst estimates by 19.5%. Additionally, H World Group reported a trailing twelve-month revenue of CNY 25.5 billion and a net profit margin of 20.1%.
Diverse Brand Portfolio
H World Group operates a large network of hotels across China, featuring various brands such as HanTing, Ji Hotel, and Orange Hotel. This diverse portfolio allows the company to cater to a wide range of customers across different market segments.
Enhanced Digital Tools and Loyalty Programs
The company anticipates that its digital tools and the H Rewards loyalty program will bolster profit margins. These initiatives are designed to improve customer engagement and retention.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally maintain a 'Strong Buy' rating for HTHT, reflecting optimism about the company's future. This sentiment is supported by price targets suggesting potential upside, indicating confidence in the stock's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HTHT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.81
52W Range Position
70%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$30.41
+60.5% from the low
52-Week High
$56.64
-13.8% from the high
1 Month
-5.88%
3 Month
-6.01%
YTD
+1.7%
1 Year
+34.2%
3Y CAGR
+3.5%
5Y CAGR
-2.8%
10Y CAGR
+18.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HTHT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
2.7x
vs 31.0x median
-91% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.7%
vs +8.1% median
+32% above peer median
Net Margin
20.1%
vs 12.6% median
+60% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HTH HTHT H World Group Limited | $16.0B | 2.7x | +10.7% | 20.1% | Buy | +27.8% |
IHG IHG InterContinental Hotels Group PLC | $21.9B | 25.7x | -1.8% | 13.7% | Buy | +3.5% |
H H Hyatt Hotels Corporation | $16.2B | 52.6x | +25.0% | -0.5% | Hold | +12.7% |
HLT HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. | $73.2B | 35.5x | +9.3% | 12.6% | Buy | +5.3% |
MAR MAR Marriott International, Inc. | $95.1B | 31.0x | +8.1% | 11.9% | Hold | +3.7% |
WH WH Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc. | $6.3B | 17.3x | +1.7% | 13.4% | Buy | +17.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HTHT Dividend and Capital Return
HTHT returns 4.2% total yield, led by a 3.52% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.7%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
3.52%
Payout Ratio
76.9%
How HTHT Splits Its Return
Div 3.52%
Dividend 3.52%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$11.70
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
103.9%
5Y Div CAGR
39.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$762M
Estimated Shares Retired
16M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
325M
At 4.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.58 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.78 | +182.5% | 5.0% | 29.9% |
| 2024 | $0.63 | -32.3% | 10.8% | 43.4% |
| 2023 | $0.93 | +342.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% |
| 2022 | $0.21 | — | 2.5% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsHTHT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
H World Group Limited (HTHT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $62, implying +27.8% from the current price of $49.
02What is the HTHT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HTHT is $62 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $62 (+27.8% from today), and the low-end target is $62 (+27.8%). The base case model target is $468.
03Is H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock overvalued in 2026?
HTHT trades at 2.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for H World Group Limited (HTHT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HTHT in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks — H World Group operates in China, where evolving regulations regarding overseas listings, cybersecurity, and data security could significantly impact operations. (2) PCAOB Inspections Risk — The Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act mandates U. (3) Operational and Market Risks — H World Group's aggressive expansion strategy, including opening numerous new hotels, poses risks related to revenue per available room (RevPAR) and overall unit economics. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is H World Group Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HTHT will report consensus revenue of $27.9B (+10.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $18.55 (+19.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $31.0B in revenue.
06When does H World Group Limited (HTHT) report its next earnings?
H World Group Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $0.46 and revenue of $835M. Over recent quarters, HTHT has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does H World Group Limited generate?
H World Group Limited (HTHT) generated $7.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.6%. HTHT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.5% yield) and share repurchases ($762M TTM).