Upside case
Bull case
$91+76.0%
EXEL would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering EXEL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
16
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$47
-8.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$44 – $91
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.2B
EXEL price targets
Three scenarios for where EXEL stock could go
Current
~$52
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $52
Bear
$44
Base
$69
Bull
$91
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$69+33.5%
At 20x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44-15.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push EXEL down roughly 16% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Exelixis, Inc.
EXEL · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyJanuary year-end
Exelixis is an oncology-focused biotechnology company that discovers, develops, and commercializes targeted cancer therapies. It generates revenue primarily from sales of its flagship drug Cabometyx — which accounts for the vast majority of its revenue — along with royalties from partnered products like Cotellic. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in tyrosine kinase inhibitors and its focused pipeline targeting difficult-to-treat cancers.
Market Cap
$13.2B
Revenue TTM
$2.4B
Net Income TTM
$833M
Net Margin
35.1%
EXEL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+30.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.75/$0.65
Revenue
$568M/$595M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.78/$0.69
Revenue
$598M/$590M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.94/$0.77
Revenue
$599M/$597M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.87/$0.77
Revenue
$611M/$608M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.75/$0.65 | +15.4% | $568M/$595M | -4.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.78/$0.69 | +13.9% | $598M/$590M | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.94/$0.77 | +22.1% | $599M/$597M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.87/$0.77 | +13.7% | $611M/$608M | +0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.7B
+13.0% YoY
FY2
$3.0B
+10.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.42
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$3.63
+6.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$918M
FCF Margin: 38.7%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.85
Expected Revenue
$633M
EXEL beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
EXEL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Product, Gross
64.9%
+19.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
92.3%
+17.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Product, Gross is the largest disclosed segment at 64.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 19.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 92.3%, up 17.4% YoY.
EXEL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $59 — implies +13.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
EXEL
18.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
24% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
EXEL
18.7x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
16% discount
vs EXEL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.7x
vs
5Y Average
25.2x
26% discount
Forward PE
14.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-22%
Healthcare
18.3x
-19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
-24%
Healthcare
22.1x
-16%
5Y Avg
25.2x
-26%
PEG Ratio
0.36x
S&P 500
1.66x
-78%
Healthcare
1.59x
-77%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
-6%
Healthcare
14.2x
+1%
5Y Avg
21.5x
-34%
Price/FCF
15.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-25%
Healthcare
18.5x
-16%
5Y Avg
23.3x
-33%
Price/Sales
5.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+84%
Healthcare
2.6x
+116%
5Y Avg
4.3x
+32%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Healthcare
1.50%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | EXEL | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg EXEL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.7x | 18.8x-22% | 18.3x-19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.7x | 24.4x-24% | 22.1x-16% | 25.2x-26% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.36x | 1.66x-78% | 1.59x-77% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.3x | 15.2x | 14.2x | 21.5x-34% |
| Price/FCF | 15.6x | 20.7x-25% | 18.5x-16% | 23.3x-33% |
| Price/Sales | 5.7x | 3.1x+84% | 2.6x+116% | 4.3x+32% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.50% | — |
EXEL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolEXEL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
EXEL generates $918M in free cash flow at a 38.7% margin — 32.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 7.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
71.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
39.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
35.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.12
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$918M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
38.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
32.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
30.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$482M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$309M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
40.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
7.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$948M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
254M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageEXEL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Pipeline failures
The bear case suggests pipeline failures could cause revenue to shrink below current levels, posing a significant risk to growth.
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory risks
Exelixis disclosed the most risks in the 'Legal & Regulatory' category, indicating potential high-severity challenges in compliance or litigation.
Medium
Revenue contraction
Without pipeline successes, revenue could decline, reflecting moderate growth prospects with high risk.
Medium
Market sentiment risk
Analyst price targets suggest limited upside potential, with a bear case projecting underperformance relative to bull scenarios.
Lower
External partnership risks
Dependence on strategic external partnerships for pipeline development introduces variability in execution and outcomes.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why EXEL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Bullish analyst coverage
Multiple bullish theses on Exelixis, Inc. have been highlighted by Business Invest's Substack and Investing With Purpose, indicating strong analyst confidence in the stock.
Strong valuation metrics
EXEL's trailing and forward P/E ratios of 18.52 and 15.24 (as of January 13th) suggest attractive valuation relative to earnings potential.
Recent price performance
The stock was trading at $44.08 as of January 13th, showing potential upward momentum from previous levels of $37.42.
Earnings growth potential
The forward P/E ratio being lower than the trailing P/E indicates expectations of earnings growth in the coming periods.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
EXEL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$51.91
52W Range Position
90%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.76
+53.8% from the low
52-Week High
$53.93
-3.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.15%
3 Month
+25.81%
YTD
+19.1%
1 Year
+27.4%
3Y CAGR
+39.9%
5Y CAGR
+18.3%
10Y CAGR
+21.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
EXEL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.7x
vs 8.9x median
+66% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.0%
vs +10.4% median
+26% above peer median
Net Margin
35.1%
vs 9.8% median
+259% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EXE EXEL Exelixis, Inc. | $13.2B | 14.7x | +13.0% | 35.1% | Buy | -8.8% |
INC INCY Incyte Corporation | $19.6B | 13.0x | +11.3% | 26.7% | Buy | +11.8% |
ALK ALKS Alkermes plc | $7.5B | — | +10.4% | 9.8% | Buy | +10.0% |
JAZ JAZZ Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc | $14.1B | 8.9x | +9.6% | 0.7% | Buy | +14.6% |
ION IONS Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | $12.2B | — | +8.7% | -30.9% | Buy | +47.7% |
HAL HALO Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. | $8.1B | 8.5x | +17.9% | 23.1% | Buy | +28.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
EXEL Dividend and Capital Return
EXEL returns 7.2% annually — null% through dividends and 7.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
7.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
7.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$948M
Estimated Shares Retired
18M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
254M
At 7.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsEXEL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $47, implying -8.8% from the current price of $52. The bear case scenario is $44 and the bull case is $91.
02What is the EXEL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for EXEL is $47 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $54 (+4.0% from today), and the low-end target is $41 (-21.0%). The base case model target is $69.
03Is Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) stock overvalued in 2026?
EXEL trades at 14.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for EXEL in 2026 are: (1) Pipeline failures — The bear case suggests pipeline failures could cause revenue to shrink below current levels, posing a significant risk to growth. (2) Legal & Regulatory risks — Exelixis disclosed the most risks in the 'Legal & Regulatory' category, indicating potential high-severity challenges in compliance or litigation. (3) Revenue contraction — Without pipeline successes, revenue could decline, reflecting moderate growth prospects with high risk. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Exelixis, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates EXEL will report consensus revenue of $2.7B (+13.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.42 (+9.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.0B in revenue.
06When does Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) report its next earnings?
Exelixis, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $0.85 and revenue of $633M. Over recent quarters, EXEL has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Exelixis, Inc. generate?
Exelixis, Inc. (EXEL) generated $918M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 38.7%. EXEL returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($948M TTM).