Upside case
Bull case
$387+327.5%
LEN would need investors to value it at roughly 63x earnings — about 48x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Lennar Corporation (LEN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
23 bullish · 8 bearish · 50 covering LEN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
23
Hold
19
Sell
8
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$102
+12.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$90 – $387
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.5B
LEN price targets
Three scenarios for where LEN stock could go
Current
~$91
Confidence
55 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $91
Bear
$90
Base
$111
Bull
$387
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$111+22.5%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$90-0.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push LEN down roughly 0% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lennar Corporation
LEN · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionNovember year-end
Lennar Corporation is one of America's largest homebuilders, constructing and selling single-family homes across the country primarily under the Lennar brand. It generates revenue mainly from home sales—roughly 90% of total revenue—with the remainder coming from financial services like mortgage origination and title insurance. The company's scale advantage—operating in diverse geographic markets with efficient land acquisition and construction processes—provides cost efficiencies and market resilience.
Market Cap
$19.5B
Revenue TTM
$34.1B
Net Income TTM
$2.1B
Net Margin
6.1%
LEN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
56%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 0 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.90/$1.94
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$2.00/$2.10
Revenue
$8.8B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.94/—
Revenue
$9.4B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.93/$0.95
Revenue
$6.6B/$6.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.90/$1.94 | -2.1% | $8.4B/$8.2B | +2.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.00/$2.10 | -4.8% | $8.8B/$9.0B | -2.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.94/— | — | $9.4B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $0.93/$0.95 | -2.4% | $6.6B/$6.8B | -3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.7B
-1.2% YoY
FY2
$34.2B
+1.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.24
+0.1% YoY
FY2
$9.78
+18.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$28M
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LEN beat EPS estimates in 0 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
LEN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $34.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Lennar Homebuilding East, Central, West, Houston, and Other
93.8%
-4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Homebuilding West
44.7%
-8.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Lennar Homebuilding East, Central, West, Houston, and Other is the largest disclosed segment at 93.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 4.8% YoY.
Homebuilding West is the largest reported region at 44.7%, down 8.1% YoY.
LEN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $92 — implies +4.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LEN
11.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
55% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
LEN
11.3x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
42% discount
vs LEN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.3x
vs
5Y Average
10.2x
+11% premium
Forward PE
14.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-23%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
-55%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-42%
5Y Avg
10.2x
+11%
PEG Ratio
44.65x
S&P 500
1.75x
+2458%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+4587%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.6x
S&P 500
15.3x
-50%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-33%
5Y Avg
7.9x
-3%
Price/FCF
693.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+3150%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
+4522%
5Y Avg
12.3x
+5516%
Price/Sales
0.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-82%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-20%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-46%
Dividend Yield
2.23%
S&P 500
1.88%
+19%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+4%
5Y Avg
1.31%
+70%
| Metric | LEN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg LEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.7x | 19.1x-23% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.3x | 25.2x-55% | 19.6x-42% | 10.2x+11% |
| PEG Ratio | 44.65x | 1.75x+2458% | 0.95x+4587% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6x | 15.3x-50% | 11.4x-33% | 7.9x |
| Price/FCF | 693.2x | 21.3x+3150% | 15.0x+4522% | 12.3x+5516% |
| Price/Sales | 0.6x | 3.1x-82% | 0.7x-20% | 1.1x-46% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.23% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.31% |
LEN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLEN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
LEN returns 11.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$34.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-3.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
7.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.23
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$28M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
89.1× FCF
~89.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
9.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.5%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
9.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.8B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
25.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
258M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLEN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Market Cyclicality
Lennar's business is heavily reliant on the overall health of the U.S. economy. Economic downturns, such as recessions, can lead to decreased demand for new homes, increased mortgage defaults, and write-downs of land values.
High Risk
Interest Rates Impact
Rising interest rates significantly impact mortgage affordability, reducing demand for new homes. High mortgage rates can also increase the risk of mortgage defaults, further straining Lennar's financial performance.
High Risk
Debt Levels
Following acquisitions, Lennar has accumulated a significant amount of long-term debt, which can limit financial flexibility, especially during economic downturns.
Medium
Competition Risks
The homebuilding and mortgage lending industries are highly competitive, with Lennar facing competition from other homebuilders and rental housing options. This competition can affect delivery volumes, selling prices, and profit margins.
Medium
Margin Compression
Lennar has experienced margin compression due to increased buyer incentives and softer pricing. Continued market softening could force the company to offer greater incentives, further eroding gross margins.
Medium
Backlog Declines
A decline in Lennar's backlog indicates a potential slowdown in future revenue streams, suggesting the company may not be winning new orders or is facing increased competition or market saturation.
Lower
Operational Challenges
Maintaining high production levels in a softening market carries risks such as oversupply and longer holding periods for unsold homes, which can reduce flexibility to adapt to market shifts.
Lower
Analyst Sentiment
Negative shifts in analyst sentiment and significant insider share dispositions can indicate potential risk, impacting investor confidence and stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LEN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Housing Shortage
There is an estimated shortfall of 3 to 5 million homes in the US. This fundamental imbalance between supply and demand is expected to support homebuilders like Lennar for years to come.
Affordable Housing Focus
Lennar's strategy of concentrating on more affordable housing options in high-growth areas, such as Texas, positions them to capture demand once mortgage rates become less of a barrier.
Financial Strength
The company boasts a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio, indicating a strong balance sheet and reduced financial risk. Lennar also maintains robust liquidity and low leverage, which provides risk mitigation.
Strategic Moves
Lennar has made strategic acquisitions, such as CalAtlantic, to expand its market share and reach. They are also involved in multifamily and single-family for-rent construction, and have invested in housing-related technology startups.
Analyst Optimism
Despite some recent downgrades, there are analysts who rate the stock as a 'Strong Buy,' expressing confidence in its long-term potential. Zacks Research has also increased their Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Lennar, signaling positive expectations.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LEN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$90.54
52W Range Position
12%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$83.03
+9.0% from the low
52-Week High
$144.24
-37.2% from the high
1 Month
+2.22%
3 Month
-20.59%
YTD
-13.1%
1 Year
-14.7%
3Y CAGR
-7.6%
5Y CAGR
-3.0%
10Y CAGR
+7.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LEN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.7x
vs 12.0x median
+22% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.2%
vs -0.3% median
-259% below peer median
Net Margin
6.1%
vs 12.1% median
-50% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $19.5B | 14.7x | -1.2% | 6.1% | Buy | +12.8% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $43.2B | 14.0x | -0.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +9.8% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $23.1B | 12.0x | -0.5% | 12.1% | Hold | +17.6% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.9x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +22.5% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $13.4B | 11.1x | +0.5% | 12.3% | Hold | +17.8% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.4B | 10.0x | +0.8% | 8.2% | Hold | +25.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LEN Dividend and Capital Return
LEN returns capital mainly through $1.8B/year in buybacks (9.3% buyback yield), with a modest 2.23% dividend — combining for 11.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
11.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
9.3%
Dividend Yield
2.23%
Payout Ratio
25.3%
How LEN Splits Its Return
Div 2.23%
Buyback 9.3%
Dividend 2.23%Buybacks 9.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
27.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.8B
Estimated Shares Retired
20M
Approx. Share Reduction
7.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
258M
At 7.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +3.3% | 5.3% | 6.9% |
| 2024 | $1.94 | +33.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $1.45 | 0.0% | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| 2022 | $1.45 | +50.0% | 4.1% | 5.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsLEN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lennar Corporation (LEN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lennar Corporation (LEN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 8 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $102, implying +12.8% from the current price of $91. The bear case scenario is $90 and the bull case is $387.
02What is the LEN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LEN is $102 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $125 (+38.1% from today), and the low-end target is $88 (-2.8%). The base case model target is $111.
03Is Lennar Corporation (LEN) stock overvalued in 2026?
LEN trades at 14.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lennar Corporation (LEN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LEN in 2026 are: (1) Market Cyclicality — Lennar's business is heavily reliant on the overall health of the U. (2) Interest Rates Impact — Rising interest rates significantly impact mortgage affordability, reducing demand for new homes. (3) Debt Levels — Following acquisitions, Lennar has accumulated a significant amount of long-term debt, which can limit financial flexibility, especially during economic downturns. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lennar Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LEN will report consensus revenue of $33.7B (-1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.24 (+0.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $34.2B in revenue.
06When does Lennar Corporation (LEN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LEN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lennar Corporation generate?
Lennar Corporation (LEN) generated $28M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. LEN returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($1.8B TTM).