Upside case
Bull case
$284+100.4%
TOL would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
21 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering TOL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
20
Hold
23
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$167
+17.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$76 – $284
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.4B
TOL price targets
Three scenarios for where TOL stock could go
Current
~$142
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $142
Bear
$76
Base
$164
Bull
$284
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$164+16.1%
At 13x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$76-46.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push TOL down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionOctober year-end
Toll Brothers is a luxury homebuilder that designs, constructs, and sells high-end detached and attached homes primarily in suburban communities across the United States. The company generates nearly all its revenue from home sales—with a small portion from land sales and ancillary services like mortgage and title operations—and operates through two main segments: Traditional Home Building (~90% of revenue) and City Living for urban condominiums. Its competitive advantage lies in its premium brand reputation for quality craftsmanship, established land positions in desirable locations, and vertical integration of design, manufacturing, and construction services.
Market Cap
$13.4B
Revenue TTM
$11.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
12.3%
TOL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$3.50/$2.81
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.5B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.73/$3.60
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.58/$4.88
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.19/$2.05
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $3.50/$2.81 | +24.6% | $2.7B/$2.5B | +10.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.73/$3.60 | +3.6% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.58/$4.88 | -6.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.19/$2.05 | +6.8% | $2.1B/$1.9B | +15.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+0.5% YoY
FY2
$11.5B
+4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.05
+1.8% YoY
FY2
$15.66
+11.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.0B
FCF Margin: 9.4%
Next Earnings
May 19, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.57
Expected Revenue
$2.4B
TOL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TOL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building
98.9%
+2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Mountain
27.2%
+14.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building is the largest disclosed segment at 98.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.6% YoY.
Mountain is the largest reported region at 27.2%, up 14.9% YoY.
TOL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $159 — implies +13.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
13.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TOL
10.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
58% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TOL
10.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
46% discount
vs TOL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.5x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+36% premium
Forward PE
11.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-42%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-27%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-58%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-46%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+36%
PEG Ratio
0.33x
S&P 500
1.75x
-81%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-65%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.4x
S&P 500
15.3x
-45%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-26%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+19%
Price/FCF
13.1x
S&P 500
21.3x
-39%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-13%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+37%
Price/Sales
1.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-61%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+72%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+28%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
S&P 500
1.88%
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-68%
5Y Avg
1.05%
-35%
| Metric | TOL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.1x | 19.1x-42% | 15.2x-27% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.5x | 25.2x-58% | 19.6x-46% | 7.7x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.33x | 1.75x-81% | 0.95x-65% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.4x | 15.3x-45% | 11.4x-26% | 7.0x+19% |
| Price/FCF | 13.1x | 21.3x-39% | 15.0x-13% | 9.5x+37% |
| Price/Sales | 1.2x | 3.1x-61% | 0.7x+72% | 1.0x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.69% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 1.05% |
TOL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTOL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TOL generates $1.0B in free cash flow at a 9.4% margin — 13.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
25.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.81
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.6× FCF
~1.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.5%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
4.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$651M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
100M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTOL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Debt and Refinancing Risk
Transocean has substantial debt exceeding $5 billion, with approximately $1.3 billion due in 2027, including $655 million in priority guaranteed notes and $520 million in secured debt amortization. The company faces heightened refinancing risk and pressured liquidity as most of its current contracts roll off in 2027.
High Risk
Oil Price Volatility
Fluctuations in oil and gas prices pose a significant risk to Transocean's operations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects WTI crude to remain below $60 per barrel through 2027, which could lead customers to delay deepwater drilling projects, adversely impacting demand for the company's services.
High Risk
Valaris Merger Integration and Dilution
The all-stock acquisition of Valaris, valued at around $5.8 billion, introduces risks related to dilution and integration challenges. There are concerns regarding the successful realization of expected merger synergies and the fulfillment of closing conditions.
Medium
Market Conditions and Demand
Subdued capital expenditure trends in the offshore sector and a lack of clear direction from operators create uncertainty regarding future day rates and demand for drilling services. A slowdown in economic growth could further diminish the demand for new oil and gas exploration.
Medium
Operational Risks
Transocean faces inherent risks associated with international operations, including operating hazards, delays, and contract terminations. Additionally, the company is exposed to risks related to currency exchange rates.
Medium
Fleet Utilization and Rig Attrition
Management has indicated a potential for further rig attrition, with plans to scrap idle rigs, which could negatively impact future operational capacity. A lower activity outlook for 2026 signals utilization risk and potential revenue pressure.
Lower
Customer Concentration
Transocean relies heavily on a relatively small number of customers, which increases its vulnerability. The loss of a significant customer or a dispute could adversely affect its business.
Lower
Financial Stability
The company's overall financial condition is fragile, characterized by a low cash-to-assets ratio and a heavily leveraged balance sheet. This could limit its ability to respond to adverse market conditions.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TOL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Buyer Demographic
Toll Brothers targets high-income buyers, who are less sensitive to economic downturns and mortgage rate fluctuations. This focus positions the company well to maintain sales even in challenging economic conditions.
Operational Efficiency and Growth
The company has demonstrated increased operational efficiency, with strong second-quarter earnings results for fiscal year 2023 showing significant year-over-year growth in net income and diluted earnings per share. Home sale revenues have also increased, with improved gross margins.
Backlog and Future Revenue
As of October 31, 2022, Toll Brothers had a substantial backlog valued at $8.87 billion, indicating future revenue streams. The company's strategic shift towards more spec homes and its strong leverage profile are noted as positive indicators for future performance.
Financial Health and Shareholder Returns
Toll Brothers has a strong leverage profile and pays a cash dividend alongside share repurchases. The company also trades at a lower P/E ratio compared to its peers, suggesting potential for enhanced shareholder returns.
Undervaluation
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests that Toll Brothers may be undervalued, with an estimated intrinsic value per share higher than its current trading price. This presents an opportunity for investors looking for growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TOL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$141.60
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$100.92
+40.3% from the low
52-Week High
$168.36
-15.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.75%
3 Month
-7.62%
YTD
+4.4%
1 Year
+39.4%
3Y CAGR
+30.1%
5Y CAGR
+16.6%
10Y CAGR
+18.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TOL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.1x
vs 14.0x median
-21% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+0.5%
vs -0.5% median
+204% above peer median
Net Margin
12.3%
vs 9.5% median
+29% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $13.4B | 11.1x | +0.5% | 12.3% | Hold | +17.8% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $43.2B | 14.0x | -0.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +9.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $19.5B | 14.7x | -1.2% | 6.1% | Buy | +12.8% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $23.1B | 12.0x | -0.5% | 12.1% | Hold | +17.6% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.9x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +22.5% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.4B | 10.0x | +0.8% | 8.2% | Hold | +25.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TOL Dividend and Capital Return
TOL returns capital mainly through $651M/year in buybacks (4.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.69% dividend — combining for 5.5% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.9%
Dividend Yield
0.69%
Payout Ratio
7.2%
How TOL Splits Its Return
Div 0.69%
Buyback 4.9%
Dividend 0.69%Buybacks 4.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
17.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$651M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
100M
At 4.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.51 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.98 | +8.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $0.90 | +8.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| 2023 | $0.83 | +7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| 2022 | $0.77 | +24.2% | 10.7% | 12.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsTOL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 23 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $167, implying +17.8% from the current price of $142. The bear case scenario is $76 and the bull case is $284.
02What is the TOL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TOL is $167 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $198 (+39.8% from today), and the low-end target is $110 (-22.3%). The base case model target is $164.
03Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TOL trades at 11.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TOL in 2026 are: (1) Debt and Refinancing Risk — Transocean has substantial debt exceeding $5 billion, with approximately $1. (2) Oil Price Volatility — Fluctuations in oil and gas prices pose a significant risk to Transocean's operations. (3) Valaris Merger Integration and Dilution — The all-stock acquisition of Valaris, valued at around $5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TOL will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+0.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.05 (+1.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.5B in revenue.
06When does Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) report its next earnings?
Toll Brothers, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-19. Consensus expects EPS of $2.57 and revenue of $2.4B. Over recent quarters, TOL has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Toll Brothers, Inc. generate?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) generated $1.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.4%. TOL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($651M TTM).