Upside case
Bull case
$224+43.6%
TOL would need investors to value it at roughly 17x earnings — about 5x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
46
analysts
22 bullish · 2 bearish · 46 covering TOL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
21
Hold
22
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$174
+11.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$107 – $224
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
46
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.7B
TOL price targets
Three scenarios for where TOL stock could go
Current
~$156
Confidence
49 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $156
Bear
$107
Base
$170
Bull
$224
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$170+9.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing TOL — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$107-31.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push TOL down roughly 31% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionOctober year-end
Toll Brothers is a luxury homebuilder that designs, constructs, and sells high-end detached and attached homes primarily in suburban communities across the United States. The company generates nearly all its revenue from home sales—with a small portion from land sales and ancillary services like mortgage and title operations—and operates through two main segments: Traditional Home Building (~90% of revenue) and City Living for urban condominiums. Its competitive advantage lies in its premium brand reputation for quality craftsmanship, established land positions in desirable locations, and vertical integration of design, manufacturing, and construction services.
Market Cap
$14.7B
Revenue TTM
$11.0B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
11.7%
TOL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.73/$3.60
Revenue
$2.9B/$2.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$4.58/$4.88
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.19/$2.05
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.72/$2.58
Revenue
$2.5B/$2.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.73/$3.60 | +3.6% | $2.9B/$2.9B | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.58/$4.88 | -6.1% | $3.4B/$3.3B | +3.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.19/$2.05 | +6.8% | $2.1B/$1.9B | +15.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.72/$2.58 | +5.4% | $2.5B/$2.4B | +4.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.5B
+3.7% YoY
FY2
$11.5B
+0.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$14.31
+6.4% YoY
FY2
$15.56
+8.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 11.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TOL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TOL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building
98.9%
+2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Mountain
27.2%
+14.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building is the largest disclosed segment at 98.9% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.6% YoY.
Mountain is the largest reported region at 27.2%, up 14.9% YoY.
TOL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $180 — implies +15.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
15.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TOL
11.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
53% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TOL
11.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
45% discount
vs TOL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.5x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+50% premium
Forward PE
12.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-35%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-45%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+50%
PEG Ratio
0.36x
S&P 500
1.66x
-78%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-61%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-40%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-25%
5Y Avg
7.0x
+30%
Price/FCF
14.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-31%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-8%
5Y Avg
9.5x
+50%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-57%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+93%
5Y Avg
1.0x
+41%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
S&P 500
1.91%
-67%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-71%
5Y Avg
1.05%
-40%
| Metric | TOL | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TOL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.2x | 18.8x-35% | 16.3x-25% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.5x | 24.4x-53% | 21.2x-45% | 7.7x+50% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.36x | 1.66x-78% | 0.92x-61% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.1x | 15.2x-40% | 12.2x-25% | 7.0x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 14.4x | 20.7x-31% | 15.6x | 9.5x+50% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-57% | 0.7x+93% | 1.0x+41% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.63% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 1.05% |
TOL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTOL Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TOL generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 11.0% margin — 13.4% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$11.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+3.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
24.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
11.7%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$13.45
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
11.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.7B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.4× FCF
~1.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.0%
Dividend
0.6%
Buyback
4.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$651M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.97
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
95M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTOL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Revenue and earnings decline
Toll Brothers is projected to see its revenue fall -4.2% YoY in FY26 and its earnings drop -6.5%, with consensus earnings estimates declining by over -10% for FY26 and FY27.
Medium
Analyst downgrades
Wall Street analysts rate Toll Brothers as Hold, with 22 out of 46 analysts giving it a Hold rating and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell, reflecting cautious sentiment.
Medium
Bear case valuation
The bear case scenario for Toll Brothers implies a downside to $107, significantly below the current price of $147, suggesting potential overvaluation risks.
Lower
Wealth effect sensitivity
Toll Brothers' growth is tied to affluent consumer confidence, which depends on stock market performance and asset values, making it vulnerable to market downturns.
Lower
Mortgage rate exposure
While Toll Brothers' customer base is less rate-sensitive, higher mortgage rates could still impact demand for luxury homes over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TOL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Resilient housing market performance
Toll Brothers has emerged as a resilient outlier in the housing market, maintaining margins despite interest rate volatility and inventory shortages.
Strong moat and business model
The company has a strong moat and a robust business model, which is highlighted in investment memos and analysis.
Potential revenue growth from rate cuts
If interest rates fall faster, Toll Brothers could see an 8% revenue growth in the bull case scenario.
Long-term moderate growth prospects
Over the long term, Toll Brothers' growth prospects are moderate, with a potential 6% CAGR in the bull case scenario.
Wall Street consensus upside
The stock has a consensus target price of $174, implying an 18.2% upside from current levels.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TOL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$155.67
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$104.09
+49.6% from the low
52-Week High
$168.36
-7.5% from the high
1 Month
+22.60%
3 Month
+13.68%
YTD
+14.8%
1 Year
+47.6%
3Y CAGR
+27.4%
5Y CAGR
+22.5%
10Y CAGR
+18.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TOL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.2x
vs 14.9x median
-18% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.7%
vs +3.0% median
+22% above peer median
Net Margin
11.7%
vs 9.5% median
+23% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $14.7B | 12.2x | +3.7% | 11.7% | Hold | +11.7% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $45.7B | 14.9x | +3.9% | 9.5% | Hold | +3.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $22.3B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 5.4% | Buy | -0.6% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $24.4B | 12.7x | +2.2% | 12.1% | Hold | +13.8% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $18.0B | 18.0x | +2.5% | 13.2% | Buy | +15.0% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.8B | 11.3x | +3.0% | 8.2% | Hold | +10.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TOL Dividend and Capital Return
TOL returns capital mainly through $651M/year in buybacks (4.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.63% dividend — combining for 5.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.4%
Dividend Yield
0.63%
Payout Ratio
7.2%
How TOL Splits Its Return
Div 0.63%
Buyback 4.4%
Dividend 0.63%Buybacks 4.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.97
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.4%
5Y Div CAGR
17.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$651M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
95M
At 4.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.77 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.98 | +8.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% |
| 2024 | $0.90 | +8.4% | 4.1% | 4.7% |
| 2023 | $0.83 | +7.8% | 7.2% | 8.3% |
| 2022 | $0.77 | +24.2% | 10.7% | 12.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsTOL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 46 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $174, implying +11.7% from the current price of $156. The bear case scenario is $107 and the bull case is $224.
02What is the TOL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TOL is $174 based on 46 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $187 (+20.1% from today), and the low-end target is $156 (+0.2%). The base case model target is $170.
03Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock overvalued in 2026?
TOL trades at 12.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TOL in 2026 are: (1) Revenue and earnings decline — Toll Brothers is projected to see its revenue fall -4. (2) Analyst downgrades — Wall Street analysts rate Toll Brothers as Hold, with 22 out of 46 analysts giving it a Hold rating and 2 rating it Sell or Strong Sell, reflecting cautious sentiment. (3) Bear case valuation — The bear case scenario for Toll Brothers implies a downside to $107, significantly below the current price of $147, suggesting potential overvaluation risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Toll Brothers, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TOL will report consensus revenue of $11.5B (+3.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $14.31 (+6.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.5B in revenue.
06When does Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TOL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Toll Brothers, Inc. generate?
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 11.0%. TOL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.6% yield) and share repurchases ($651M TTM).