Upside case
Bull case
$413+177.0%
DHI would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
52
analysts
24 bullish · 3 bearish · 52 covering DHI
Strong Buy
2
Buy
22
Hold
25
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$164
+9.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$139 – $413
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
52
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $43.2B
DHI price targets
Three scenarios for where DHI stock could go
Current
~$149
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $149
Bear
$139
Base
$164
Bull
$413
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$164+10.2%
This is close to how the market is already pricing DHI — at roughly 15x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$139-6.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 1x multiple contraction could push DHI down roughly 7% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
D.R. Horton, Inc.
DHI · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionSeptember year-end
D.R. Horton is one of America's largest homebuilders that constructs and sells single-family homes across 31 states. It generates revenue primarily from home sales—roughly 90% of total revenue—with additional income from mortgage financing, title services, and rental properties. The company's scale advantage—operating in 98 markets with efficient land acquisition and standardized construction processes—creates significant cost efficiencies that smaller competitors cannot match.
Market Cap
$43.2B
Revenue TTM
$33.3B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
9.5%
DHI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.36/$2.94
Revenue
$9.2B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.04/$3.27
Revenue
$9.7B/$9.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.03/$1.93
Revenue
$6.9B/$6.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.24/$2.15
Revenue
$7.6B/$7.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.36/$2.94 | +14.3% | $9.2B/$8.8B | +5.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.04/$3.27 | -7.0% | $9.7B/$9.4B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.03/$1.93 | +5.2% | $6.9B/$6.6B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.24/$2.15 | +4.2% | $7.6B/$7.5B | +0.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$33.2B
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$33.8B
+1.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.36
+3.5% YoY
FY2
$12.76
+12.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.5B
FCF Margin: 10.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
DHI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
DHI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $34.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Homebuilding
91.9%
-7.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Southeast
22.1%
-21.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Homebuilding is the largest disclosed segment at 91.9% of FY 2025 revenue, down 7.2% YoY.
Southeast is the largest reported region at 22.1%, down 21.5% YoY.
DHI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $172 — implies +14.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
14.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
DHI
12.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
49% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
DHI
12.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
34% discount
vs DHI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.9x
vs
5Y Average
9.4x
+37% premium
Forward PE
14.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-27%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-8%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.9x
S&P 500
25.2x
-49%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-34%
5Y Avg
9.4x
+37%
PEG Ratio
1.03x
S&P 500
1.75x
-41%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
+8%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-10%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+33%
Price/FCF
13.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-38%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-12%
5Y Avg
45.8x
-71%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-60%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+77%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+3%
Dividend Yield
1.07%
S&P 500
1.88%
-43%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-50%
5Y Avg
0.95%
+12%
| Metric | DHI | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg DHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.0x | 19.1x-27% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.9x | 25.2x-49% | 19.6x-34% | 9.4x+37% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.03x | 1.75x-41% | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.2x | 15.3x-33% | 11.4x-10% | 7.7x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 13.2x | 21.3x-38% | 15.0x-12% | 45.8x-71% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-60% | 0.7x+77% | 1.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.07% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.95% |
DHI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolDHI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
DHI generates $3.5B in free cash flow at a 10.5% margin — 12.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 11.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$33.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
22.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
10.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
8.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
11.0%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
9.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.60
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
290M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageDHI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Housing Affordability & Sales
Elevated mortgage rates and high home prices erode buyer demand, forcing DHI to offer incentives that compress gross margins. If affordability deteriorates further, the company may miss sales targets and see margin pressure.
High Risk
Mortgage Rate Impact
Rising mortgage rates have already reduced home affordability and prompted pricing adjustments, lowering gross margins. Additional rate hikes could further squeeze margins and slow sales growth.
Medium
Economic Downturn Risk
Higher unemployment or deflation could reduce demand for new homes and lower inventory values. A decline in home values below mortgage balances could impair DHI’s balance sheet.
Medium
Weather & Disaster Exposure
Adverse weather and natural disasters can disrupt construction and limit homeowners’ ability to obtain insurance coverage, potentially delaying sales and increasing costs.
Medium
Land & Inventory Risk
DHI’s land, lot, and rental inventory carries risks of ownership, development, and control, which could affect cash flow and asset values.
Medium
Legal & Regulatory Exposure
The company faces extensive compliance requirements and a lawsuit alleging deceptive incentives. Regulatory actions or litigation could result in fines, reputational damage, and increased costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why DHI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Structural Housing Demand
Consistent demand for U.S. housing driven by demographic trends, notably a growing population of younger buyers entering the market. These trends support steady sales growth for D.R. Horton.
Focus on Affordable Homes
D.R. Horton prioritizes building more affordable homes, positioning it to capture a significant portion of the market when affordability concerns rise. This strategy aligns with buyer preferences for lower‑cost options.
Operational Strengths and Efficiency
Vertical integration, cost control measures, and share buyback programs help support profit margins, returns, and earnings per share. These operational efficiencies enhance the company’s competitive edge.
Capital Returns via Repurchases and Dividends
D.R. Horton plans $2.5B in share repurchases and $500M in dividends in fiscal 2026, potentially boosting near‑term share performance. These returns signal confidence in cash flow generation.
Strong Financial Stability
The company has a market capitalization of approximately $40B and a low debt‑to‑equity ratio, indicating robust financial health. This stability supports its ability to fund growth and return capital.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
DHI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$149.17
52W Range Position
50%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$114.17
+30.7% from the low
52-Week High
$184.55
-19.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.26%
3 Month
-4.54%
YTD
+2.4%
1 Year
+22.4%
3Y CAGR
+11.2%
5Y CAGR
+8.0%
10Y CAGR
+17.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
DHI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.0x
vs 12.0x median
+17% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.3%
vs -0.5% median
+32% above peer median
Net Margin
9.5%
vs 12.1% median
-22% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $43.2B | 14.0x | -0.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +9.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $19.5B | 14.7x | -1.2% | 6.1% | Buy | +12.8% |
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $23.1B | 12.0x | -0.5% | 12.1% | Hold | +17.6% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.9x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +22.5% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $13.4B | 11.1x | +0.5% | 12.3% | Hold | +17.8% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.4B | 10.0x | +0.8% | 8.2% | Hold | +25.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
DHI Dividend and Capital Return
DHI returns capital mainly through $4.3B/year in buybacks (10.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.09% dividend — combining for 11.2% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 11 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
11.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
10.1%
Dividend Yield
1.09%
Payout Ratio
13.8%
How DHI Splits Its Return
Buyback 10.1%
Dividend 1.09%Buybacks 10.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.60
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
21.3%
5Y Div CAGR
17.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
29M
Approx. Share Reduction
9.9%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
290M
At 9.9%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.90 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.65 | +26.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
| 2024 | $1.30 | +23.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $1.05 | +13.5% | 3.3% | 4.3% |
| 2022 | $0.93 | +12.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsDHI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 52 analysts covering the stock, 24 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 25 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $164, implying +9.8% from the current price of $149. The bear case scenario is $139 and the bull case is $413.
02What is the DHI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for DHI is $164 based on 52 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $190 (+27.4% from today), and the low-end target is $129 (-13.5%). The base case model target is $164.
03Is D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) stock overvalued in 2026?
DHI trades at 14.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for DHI in 2026 are: (1) Housing Affordability & Sales — Elevated mortgage rates and high home prices erode buyer demand, forcing DHI to offer incentives that compress gross margins. (2) Mortgage Rate Impact — Rising mortgage rates have already reduced home affordability and prompted pricing adjustments, lowering gross margins. (3) Economic Downturn Risk — Higher unemployment or deflation could reduce demand for new homes and lower inventory values. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is D.R. Horton, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates DHI will report consensus revenue of $33.2B (-0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.36 (+3.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $33.8B in revenue.
06When does D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for DHI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does D.R. Horton, Inc. generate?
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) generated $3.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 10.5%. DHI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($4.3B TTM).