Upside case
Bull case
$191+50.6%
PHM would need investors to value it at roughly 19x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
19 bullish · 3 bearish · 44 covering PHM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
19
Hold
22
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$145
+13.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$91 – $191
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $24.4B
PHM price targets
Three scenarios for where PHM stock could go
Current
~$127
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $127
Bear
$91
Base
$145
Bull
$191
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$145+14.3%
At 15x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$91-28.0%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PHM down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionDecember year-end
PulteGroup is one of America's largest homebuilders that constructs and sells single-family homes across various price points and life stages. It generates revenue primarily from home sales — about 95% of total revenue — with additional income from mortgage origination, title services, and land sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale, diversified brand portfolio targeting different buyer segments, and efficient land acquisition strategy through both ownership and option agreements.
Market Cap
$24.4B
Revenue TTM
$16.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
12.1%
PHM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.03/$2.95
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.96/$2.89
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.81
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.79/$1.80
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.03/$2.95 | +2.7% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.96/$2.89 | +2.4% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.58/$2.81 | -8.2% | $4.6B/$4.3B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.79/$1.80 | -0.6% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.2B
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$17.3B
+0.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.70
+11.0% YoY
FY2
$13.10
+12.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.39
Expected Revenue
$3.9B
PHM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PHM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building Segment
97.8%
-3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Florida Geographic Segment
25.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.4% YoY.
Florida Geographic Segment is the largest reported region at 25.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PHM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $150 — implies +18.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PHM
11.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
53% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PHM
11.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
46% discount
vs PHM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
11.4x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+48% premium
Forward PE
12.7x
S&P 500
18.8x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-22%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
11.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-53%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-46%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+48%
PEG Ratio
0.69x
S&P 500
1.66x
-58%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
-25%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-48%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
-35%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+33%
Price/FCF
14.0x
S&P 500
20.7x
-33%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-10%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-6%
Price/Sales
1.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-54%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+102%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+21%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
S&P 500
1.91%
-64%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
-68%
5Y Avg
0.89%
-22%
| Metric | PHM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PHM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.7x | 18.8x-33% | 16.3x-22% | — |
| Trailing PE | 11.4x | 24.4x-53% | 21.2x-46% | 7.7x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.69x | 1.66x-58% | 0.92x-25% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0x | 15.2x-48% | 12.2x-35% | 6.0x+33% |
| Price/FCF | 14.0x | 20.7x-33% | 15.6x-10% | 14.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.4x | 3.1x-54% | 0.7x+102% | 1.2x+21% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.70% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 0.89% |
PHM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPHM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PHM generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin — 17.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 5.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$394M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
5.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.89
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
192M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePHM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Moderating Growth
PulteGroup's long-term growth is expected to moderate, with a bear case scenario projecting only +1.0% revenue growth due to potential challenges in market expansion.
High Risk
Revenue Sensitivity
Sensitivity analysis highlights significant downside risk if key factors like revenue growth or margins underperform, potentially leading to valuation declines.
Medium
Corporate Risks
PulteGroup has reported 24 risks, with Finance & Corporate being the top risk category, indicating potential operational or financial vulnerabilities.
Lower
Market Sentiment
Analyst price targets and stock forecasts suggest mixed sentiment, which could lead to volatility if expectations are not met.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PHM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Quality business model
PulteGroup is described as a high-quality business with persistent performance, which academic research shows tends to outperform by 4-6% annually over long periods.
Strong momentum
The stock has a momentum score of 55/100, indicating market recognition and the tendency for momentum to persist.
Attractive valuation metrics
PulteGroup screens well on Peter Lynch-style metrics such as earnings growth and PEG ratio, highlighting its valuation appeal.
Residential construction focus
Operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector, specifically Residential Construction, positions PulteGroup to benefit from housing market trends.
Long-term bullish outlook
A full thesis on PulteGroup includes a positive 2026-2031 outlook, suggesting sustained growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PHM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$126.96
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$98.27
+29.2% from the low
52-Week High
$144.27
-12.0% from the high
1 Month
+13.58%
3 Month
+8.44%
YTD
+6.6%
1 Year
+28.1%
3Y CAGR
+19.2%
5Y CAGR
+18.8%
10Y CAGR
+20.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PHM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.7x
vs 14.9x median
-15% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
vs +3.7% median
-41% below peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 9.5% median
+28% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $24.4B | 12.7x | +2.2% | 12.1% | Hold | +13.8% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $45.7B | 14.9x | +3.9% | 9.5% | Hold | +3.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $22.3B | 15.8x | +3.7% | 5.4% | Buy | -0.6% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $18.0B | 18.0x | +2.5% | 13.2% | Buy | +15.0% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $14.7B | 12.2x | +3.7% | 11.7% | Hold | +11.7% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.8B | 11.3x | +3.0% | 8.2% | Hold | +10.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PHM Dividend and Capital Return
PHM returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (5.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.70% dividend — combining for 5.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.0%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
Payout Ratio
8.0%
How PHM Splits Its Return
Div 0.70%
Buyback 5.0%
Dividend 0.70%Buybacks 5.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.89
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.7%
5Y Div CAGR
13.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
192M
At 5.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.92 | +12.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% |
| 2024 | $0.82 | +20.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% |
| 2023 | $0.68 | +11.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $0.61 | +7.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsPHM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 22 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $145, implying +13.8% from the current price of $127. The bear case scenario is $91 and the bull case is $191.
02What is the PHM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PHM is $145 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $162 (+27.6% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (-9.4%). The base case model target is $145.
03Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock overvalued in 2026?
PHM trades at 12.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PHM in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Sensitivity — Sensitivity analysis highlights significant downside risk if key factors like revenue growth or margins underperform, potentially leading to valuation declines. (2) Moderating Growth — PulteGroup's long-term growth is expected to moderate, with a bear case scenario projecting only +1. (3) Corporate Risks — PulteGroup has reported 24 risks, with Finance & Corporate being the top risk category, indicating potential operational or financial vulnerabilities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PulteGroup, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PHM will report consensus revenue of $17.2B (+2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.70 (+11.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.3B in revenue.
06When does PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) report its next earnings?
PulteGroup, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $2.39 and revenue of $3.9B. Over recent quarters, PHM has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does PulteGroup, Inc. generate?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. PHM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).