Upside case
Bull case
$252+110.1%
PHM would need investors to value it at roughly 25x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
44
analysts
20 bullish · 3 bearish · 44 covering PHM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
21
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$141
+17.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$80 – $252
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.1B
PHM price targets
Three scenarios for where PHM stock could go
Current
~$120
Confidence
65 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $120
Bear
$80
Base
$137
Bull
$252
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$137+14.1%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$80-33.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PHM down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PulteGroup, Inc.
PHM · NYSEConsumer CyclicalResidential ConstructionDecember year-end
PulteGroup is one of America's largest homebuilders that constructs and sells single-family homes across various price points and life stages. It generates revenue primarily from home sales — about 95% of total revenue — with additional income from mortgage origination, title services, and land sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its national scale, diversified brand portfolio targeting different buyer segments, and efficient land acquisition strategy through both ownership and option agreements.
Market Cap
$23.1B
Revenue TTM
$16.8B
Net Income TTM
$2.0B
Net Margin
12.1%
PHM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+6.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.03/$2.95
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.4B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.96/$2.89
Revenue
$4.4B/$4.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.58/$2.81
Revenue
$4.6B/$4.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.79/$1.80
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.03/$2.95 | +2.7% | $4.4B/$4.4B | +0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.96/$2.89 | +2.4% | $4.4B/$4.3B | +2.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.58/$2.81 | -8.2% | $4.6B/$4.3B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.79/$1.80 | -0.6% | $3.4B/$3.4B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.7B
-0.5% YoY
FY2
$17.1B
+2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.29
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$12.69
+12.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
FCF Margin: 9.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PHM beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PHM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $17.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Home Building Segment
97.8%
-3.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Florida Geographic Segment
25.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Home Building Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 97.8% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.4% YoY.
Florida Geographic Segment is the largest reported region at 25.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
PHM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $141 — implies +18.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PHM
10.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
57% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PHM
10.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
45% discount
vs PHM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.8x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
+40% premium
Forward PE
12.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-37%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-57%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-45%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+40%
PEG Ratio
0.65x
S&P 500
1.75x
-63%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-51%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-34%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+26%
Price/FCF
13.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-38%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-12%
5Y Avg
14.8x
-11%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-57%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+87%
5Y Avg
1.2x
+15%
Dividend Yield
0.74%
S&P 500
1.88%
-61%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.89%
-17%
| Metric | PHM | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PHM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.0x | 19.1x-37% | 15.2x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.8x | 25.2x-57% | 19.6x-45% | 7.7x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.65x | 1.75x-63% | 0.95x-31% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.5x | 15.3x-51% | 11.4x-34% | 6.0x+26% |
| Price/FCF | 13.2x | 21.3x-38% | 15.0x-12% | 14.8x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-57% | 0.7x+87% | 1.2x+15% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% | 1.88% | 2.15% | 0.89% |
PHM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPHM Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
PHM generates $1.6B in free cash flow at a 9.8% margin — 17.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 6.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$16.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-5.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
26.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
16.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.54
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
9.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$394M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.2× FCF
~0.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.0%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
5.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.89
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
8.0%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
192M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePHM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Elevated mortgage interest rates significantly impact housing affordability for potential buyers. Even with recent rate decreases, they remain considerably higher than in 2020-2021, deterring many potential buyers, especially existing homeowners who would need to take out new, higher-rate mortgages.
High Risk
Economic Uncertainty
Broader economic uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, can lead to volatility in consumer demand for new homes. Weak homebuyer demand and fluctuating consumer confidence can make it difficult for PulteGroup to predict future sales and adjust production accordingly.
Medium
Cost Pressures
Rising input costs, particularly for land, are a significant concern, with lot costs projected to increase. Additionally, there's uncertainty regarding tariffs on key construction materials, which can squeeze profitability.
Medium
Order Volatility
PulteGroup has experienced order declines and a softening in demand, with net new orders falling in recent quarters. A weaker absorption rate per community can make growth less productive, complicating inventory and production management.
Medium
Margin Compression
The need to offer incentives, such as mortgage rate buy-downs, to attract buyers can directly impact gross margins. Home sale gross margins have declined due to higher incentives and efforts to reduce spec inventory.
Lower
Execution Risk
Balancing production pace with pricing power is a key challenge for PulteGroup. Building too aggressively can increase inventory risk, while being too cautious can lead to reduced community productivity.
Lower
Competition
The homebuilding industry remains highly competitive, requiring PulteGroup to continuously innovate and differentiate its offerings to maintain market share.
Lower
Cybersecurity Risks
Risks associated with information technology failures, data security issues, and cybersecurity incidents could impact PulteGroup's operations and reputation.
Lower
Regulatory Risks
Potential risks include a DOJ antitrust probe and the insufficiency of income tax provisions, which could lead to legal challenges and financial liabilities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PHM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Metrics
PulteGroup boasts a return on equity of 16.18% and a return on invested capital of 15.99%. With a trailing P/E ratio of approximately 12.05 and a forward P/E of 12.23, the company is positioned at a reasonable valuation relative to the market.
Diverse Market Positioning
As a leading U.S. homebuilder, PulteGroup serves various buyer segments, including first-time and move-up buyers, as well as active adults. Its strategic focus on the active adult segment, particularly through brands like Del Webb, enhances its competitive advantage.
Favorable Housing Market Conditions
The U.S. housing market is structurally undersupplied, driven by aging demographics and sustained demand for housing. This environment is expected to favor homebuilders like PulteGroup, positioning them for growth.
Robust Capital Returns
PulteGroup has a strong track record of returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The company's capital allocation strategy prioritizes high-return projects while maintaining a commitment to shareholder returns.
Promising Growth Outlook
Analysts forecast revenue and earnings growth for PulteGroup in the coming years. The company's guidance for 2026 includes expectations for increased closings and average sales prices, indicating a positive growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PHM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$120.10
52W Range Position
51%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$95.20
+26.2% from the low
52-Week High
$144.27
-16.8% from the high
1 Month
+0.23%
3 Month
-11.10%
YTD
+0.9%
1 Year
+19.1%
3Y CAGR
+21.0%
5Y CAGR
+14.7%
10Y CAGR
+20.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PHM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.0x
vs 14.0x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.5%
vs -0.3% median
-47% below peer median
Net Margin
12.1%
vs 9.5% median
+28% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PHM PHM PulteGroup, Inc. | $23.1B | 12.0x | -0.5% | 12.1% | Hold | +17.6% |
DHI DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $43.2B | 14.0x | -0.3% | 9.5% | Hold | +9.8% |
LEN LEN Lennar Corporation | $19.5B | 14.7x | -1.2% | 6.1% | Buy | +12.8% |
NVR NVR NVR, Inc. | $16.9B | 16.9x | -1.0% | 13.2% | Buy | +22.5% |
TOL TOL Toll Brothers, Inc. | $13.4B | 11.1x | +0.5% | 12.3% | Hold | +17.8% |
MHO MHO M/I Homes, Inc. | $3.4B | 10.0x | +0.8% | 8.2% | Hold | +25.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PHM Dividend and Capital Return
PHM returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (5.3% buyback yield), with a modest 0.74% dividend — combining for 6.0% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 8 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.3%
Dividend Yield
0.74%
Payout Ratio
8.0%
How PHM Splits Its Return
Div 0.74%
Buyback 5.3%
Dividend 0.74%Buybacks 5.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.89
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
8Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.7%
5Y Div CAGR
13.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
10M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
192M
At 5.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.92 | +12.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% |
| 2024 | $0.82 | +20.6% | 5.3% | 6.1% |
| 2023 | $0.68 | +11.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| 2022 | $0.61 | +7.0% | 10.1% | 11.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsPHM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 21 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $141, implying +17.6% from the current price of $120. The bear case scenario is $80 and the bull case is $252.
02What is the PHM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PHM is $141 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $162 (+34.9% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (-4.2%). The base case model target is $137.
03Is PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock overvalued in 2026?
PHM trades at 12.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PHM in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Sensitivity — Elevated mortgage interest rates significantly impact housing affordability for potential buyers. (2) Economic Uncertainty — Broader economic uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, can lead to volatility in consumer demand for new homes. (3) Cost Pressures — Rising input costs, particularly for land, are a significant concern, with lot costs projected to increase. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PulteGroup, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PHM will report consensus revenue of $16.7B (-0.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.29 (+7.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.1B in revenue.
06When does PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PHM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does PulteGroup, Inc. generate?
PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 9.8%. PHM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).