Upside case
Bull case
$424+8.9%
LRCX would need investors to value it at roughly 75x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 68x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
39 bullish · 1 bearish · 50 covering LRCX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
39
Hold
10
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$349
-10.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$203 – $424
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
68.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $485.8B
LRCX price targets
Three scenarios for where LRCX stock could go
Current
~$389
Confidence
61 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $389
Bear
$203
Base
$322
Bull
$424
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$322-17.3%
At 57x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$203-47.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 33x multiple contraction could push LRCX down roughly 48% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lam Research Corporation
LRCX · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJune year-end
Lam Research is a leading manufacturer of semiconductor fabrication equipment used to produce integrated circuits. The company generates revenue primarily from selling wafer fabrication equipment — including etch, deposition, and cleaning systems — and related services, with equipment sales typically representing around 80% of total revenue. Its competitive advantage stems from deep process expertise in critical semiconductor manufacturing steps, particularly in etch and deposition technologies where it holds strong market positions.
Market Cap
$485.8B
Revenue TTM
$21.7B
Net Income TTM
$6.7B
Net Margin
30.9%
LRCX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.33/$1.21
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.22
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.17
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.47/$1.36
Revenue
$5.8B/$5.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.33/$1.21 | +9.9% | $5.2B/$5.0B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.26/$1.22 | +3.3% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.17 | +8.5% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.47/$1.36 | +8.1% | $5.8B/$5.8B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.9B
+10.2% YoY
FY2
$27.4B
+14.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.69
+6.6% YoY
FY2
$7.15
+25.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.5B
FCF Margin: 29.8%
Next Earnings
July 29, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.65
Expected Revenue
$6.6B
LRCX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LRCX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $18.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
System
62.3%
+28.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
33.7%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
System is the largest disclosed segment at 62.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 28.8% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 33.7%, down 1.4% YoY.
LRCX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $364 — implies -6.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
6.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LRCX
93.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+283% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
LRCX
93.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+223% premium
vs LRCX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
93.7x
vs
5Y Average
23.1x
+305% premium
Forward PE
68.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
+264%
Technology
22.3x
+208%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
93.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+283%
Technology
29.0x
+223%
5Y Avg
23.1x
+305%
PEG Ratio
4.18x
S&P 500
1.66x
+152%
Technology
1.51x
+178%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
77.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+406%
Technology
16.6x
+363%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+304%
Price/FCF
89.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+334%
Technology
19.2x
+367%
5Y Avg
25.4x
+253%
Price/Sales
26.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+752%
Technology
2.4x
+981%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+326%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
S&P 500
1.91%
-88%
Technology
1.11%
-79%
5Y Avg
0.96%
-76%
| Metric | LRCX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg LRCX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 68.5x | 18.8x+264% | 22.3x+208% | — |
| Trailing PE | 93.7x | 24.4x+283% | 29.0x+223% | 23.1x+305% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.18x | 1.66x+152% | 1.51x+178% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 77.0x | 15.2x+406% | 16.6x+363% | 19.1x+304% |
| Price/FCF | 89.7x | 20.7x+334% | 19.2x+367% | 25.4x+253% |
| Price/Sales | 26.4x | 3.1x+752% | 2.4x+981% | 6.2x+326% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.23% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.96% |
LRCX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLRCX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
LRCX generates $6.5B in free cash flow at a 29.8% margin — 55.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
55.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
31.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
65.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.9%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.89
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
21.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLRCX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Cleanroom space shortages
The shortage of cleanroom space presents a tangible risk that could significantly delay Lam Research's revenue growth.
High Risk
Customer concentration risk
Lam Research faces revenue risks due to high customer concentration, particularly its connection with SK Hynix.
High Risk
U.S. export controls
U.S. export controls on semiconductor equipment to China pose a risk to Lam Research's revenue, given its exposure to the Chinese market.
Medium
Memory capex cyclicality
Lam Research's revenue is tied to memory capital expenditure cycles, which can be volatile and impact financial performance.
Lower
Dilution risk
The company's dilution risk is assessed as low, with a recent stock split completed in October.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LRCX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Dominance in semiconductor etching
Lam Research Corporation holds a leading position in semiconductor etching and deposition technologies, which are critical for advanced chip manufacturing.
High-margin service revenue
The company benefits from a growing stream of high-margin service revenue, bolstering its financial performance.
AI infrastructure demand
Strong demand for AI infrastructure is driving growth, with Lam Research well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
Advanced packaging applications
The company is seeing increased demand for its solutions in advanced packaging applications, a key growth area in semiconductor manufacturing.
Consistent revenue growth
Lam Research has reported ten consecutive quarters of revenue growth, including a 22% year-over-year increase in Q2 fiscal 2026.
Innovation leadership
The company is known for its relentless pursuit of innovation, pushing technical boundaries to create cutting-edge semiconductor solutions.
Upgraded market outlook
Recent stronger-than-expected results and an upgraded wafer fab equipment market outlook reflect surging demand tied to AI and advanced packaging.
Front-end wafer processing expertise
Lam Research's products are essential in front-end wafer processing, a critical step in creating active semiconductor components.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LRCX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$389.04
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$87.75
+343.4% from the low
52-Week High
$401.00
-3.0% from the high
1 Month
+39.96%
3 Month
+73.13%
YTD
+110.2%
1 Year
+321.8%
3Y CAGR
+85.0%
5Y CAGR
+44.7%
10Y CAGR
+46.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LRCX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
68.5x
vs 59.4x median
+15% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.2%
vs +11.5% median
-11% below peer median
Net Margin
30.9%
vs 29.3% median
+6% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $485.8B | 68.5x | +10.2% | 30.9% | Buy | -10.2% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $490.0B | 50.5x | +11.5% | 29.3% | Buy | -13.5% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $34.2B | 70.0x | +8.9% | 35.7% | Buy | +640.1% |
ASM ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $749.0B | 59.6x | +16.2% | 29.4% | Buy | -12.2% |
TER TER Teradyne, Inc. | $68.6B | 59.4x | +10.5% | 22.6% | Buy | -19.8% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $16.6B | 46.5x | +11.5% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LRCX Dividend and Capital Return
LRCX returns capital mainly through $3.4B/year in buybacks (0.7% buyback yield), with a modest 0.23% dividend — combining for 0.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 12 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
Payout Ratio
21.5%
How LRCX Splits Its Return
Div 0.23%
Buyback 0.7%
Dividend 0.23%Buybacks 0.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.89
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
12Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.0%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
9M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.98 | +14.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $0.86 | +15.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | +15.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.65 | +15.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsLRCX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 39 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $349, implying -10.2% from the current price of $389. The bear case scenario is $203 and the bull case is $424.
02What is the LRCX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LRCX is $349 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $575 (+47.8% from today), and the low-end target is $275 (-29.3%). The base case model target is $322.
03Is Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock overvalued in 2026?
LRCX trades at 68.5x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LRCX in 2026 are: (1) Cleanroom space shortages — The shortage of cleanroom space presents a tangible risk that could significantly delay Lam Research's revenue growth. (2) Customer concentration risk — Lam Research faces revenue risks due to high customer concentration, particularly its connection with SK Hynix. (3) U.S. export controls — U. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lam Research Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LRCX will report consensus revenue of $23.9B (+10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.69 (+6.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $27.4B in revenue.
06When does Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) report its next earnings?
Lam Research Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-29. Consensus expects EPS of $1.65 and revenue of $6.6B. Over recent quarters, LRCX has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Lam Research Corporation generate?
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) generated $6.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.8%. LRCX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($3.4B TTM).