Upside case
Bull case
$699+153.6%
LRCX would need investors to value it at roughly 124x earnings — about 75x more generous than today's 49x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
50
analysts
38 bullish · 1 bearish · 50 covering LRCX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
38
Hold
11
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$291
+5.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$184 – $699
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
50
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
48.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $344.4B
LRCX price targets
Three scenarios for where LRCX stock could go
Current
~$276
Confidence
66 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $276
Bear
$184
Base
$505
Bull
$699
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$505+83.1%
At 89x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$184-33.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 16x multiple contraction could push LRCX down roughly 33% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Lam Research Corporation
LRCX · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJune year-end
Lam Research is a leading manufacturer of semiconductor fabrication equipment used to produce integrated circuits. The company generates revenue primarily from selling wafer fabrication equipment — including etch, deposition, and cleaning systems — and related services, with equipment sales typically representing around 80% of total revenue. Its competitive advantage stems from deep process expertise in critical semiconductor manufacturing steps, particularly in etch and deposition technologies where it holds strong market positions.
Market Cap
$344.4B
Revenue TTM
$21.7B
Net Income TTM
$6.7B
Net Margin
30.9%
LRCX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-0.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.33/$1.21
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.26/$1.22
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.27/$1.17
Revenue
$5.3B/$5.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.47/$1.36
Revenue
$5.8B/$5.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.33/$1.21 | +9.9% | $5.2B/$5.0B | +3.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.26/$1.22 | +3.3% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.27/$1.17 | +8.5% | $5.3B/$5.2B | +2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.47/$1.36 | +8.1% | $5.8B/$5.8B | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.8B
+9.6% YoY
FY2
$29.5B
+24.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.87
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$7.60
+29.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$6.5B
FCF Margin: 29.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
LRCX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
LRCX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $18.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
System
62.3%
+28.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
33.7%
-1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
System is the largest disclosed segment at 62.3% of FY 2025 revenue, up 28.8% YoY.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 33.7%, down 1.4% YoY.
LRCX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $176 — implies -31.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
31.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
LRCX
66.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+165% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
LRCX
66.5x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+149% premium
vs LRCX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
66.5x
vs
5Y Average
23.1x
+187% premium
Forward PE
48.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
+156%
Technology
22.1x
+120%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
66.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+165%
Technology
26.7x
+149%
5Y Avg
23.1x
+187%
PEG Ratio
2.97x
S&P 500
1.72x
+73%
Technology
1.52x
+95%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
54.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
+258%
Technology
17.5x
+212%
5Y Avg
19.1x
+186%
Price/FCF
63.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+202%
Technology
19.5x
+226%
5Y Avg
25.4x
+151%
Price/Sales
18.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+498%
Technology
2.4x
+665%
5Y Avg
6.2x
+202%
Dividend Yield
0.32%
S&P 500
1.87%
-83%
Technology
1.16%
-72%
5Y Avg
0.96%
-66%
| Metric | LRCX | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg LRCX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 48.8x | 19.1x+156% | 22.1x+120% | — |
| Trailing PE | 66.5x | 25.1x+165% | 26.7x+149% | 23.1x+187% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.97x | 1.72x+73% | 1.52x+95% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.5x | 15.2x+258% | 17.5x+212% | 19.1x+186% |
| Price/FCF | 63.6x | 21.1x+202% | 19.5x+226% | 25.4x+151% |
| Price/Sales | 18.7x | 3.1x+498% | 2.4x+665% | 6.2x+202% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.32% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.96% |
LRCX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolLRCX Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
LRCX generates $6.5B in free cash flow at a 29.8% margin — 55.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+26.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
50.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
30.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.34
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$6.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
29.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
55.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
31.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$6.4B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
65.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
1.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.89
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
21.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageLRCX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Margin Compression
Lam Research projects a sequential decline in gross margin to 48.5% ±1% for the December 2025 quarter, potentially triggering multiple compression if peak margins are perceived to be in the past. This is driven by an unfavorable product mix and tariff pressures, which could erode profitability and valuation multiples.
High Risk
China Revenue Concentration
China is expected to account for less than 30% of total revenues in 2026, yet geopolitical tensions and U.S. export controls pose a risk of revenue disruption. A sudden restriction could lead to a de‑rating of the company’s valuation multiple and earnings volatility.
High Risk
Excess Inventory & Channel Stuffing
Elevated Days Inventory Outstanding signals potential excess inventory and channel stuffing, which could result in revenue and earnings losses if current sales are drawn from future demand. Inventory write‑downs or a slowdown in new orders could trigger significant stock price drops.
Medium
Market Dependence & Cyclicality
Lam Research’s revenue is heavily tied to the cyclical semiconductor industry, making it sensitive to demand swings and economic conditions. A chip cycle downturn could reduce customer capital spending and constrain growth.
Medium
Technological Challenges & Competition
The company must continuously innovate to stay competitive; failure to launch new products or improve existing ones could erode market share and lead to inventory obsolescence. Intense rivalry from well‑capitalized competitors adds pressure on margins.
Medium
Customer Concentration
Lam serves major semiconductor manufacturers, so a significant cut in capital spending by any key customer could materially impact quarterly results. Concentration amplifies revenue volatility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why LRCX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
AI‑Driven Demand
The surge in AI workloads and advanced chip architectures is a key catalyst, driving higher demand for wafer fabrication equipment (WFE). Lam Research’s order visibility has risen as it supplies critical tools for AI‑focused chip manufacturing and high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) production.
Memory Market Strength
Lam Research is benefiting from robust growth in the memory chip market, with significant increases in DRAM revenue and services revenue. The company has expanded its share of the global WFE market over the past decade, reinforcing its position in memory production.
Technological Leadership
Lam Research holds defensible technologies and process leadership in areas such as ALD Moly and advanced packaging. Its collaboration with IBM on sub‑1 nm logic scaling further cements its leading edge in process technology.
Financial Performance & Growth
Earnings are projected to grow significantly, with revenue and earnings estimates showing strong increases in the coming years. The company has demonstrated strong earnings growth over the past year and has a history of increasing its dividend.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
LRCX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$275.80
52W Range Position
98%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$72.59
+279.9% from the low
52-Week High
$279.97
-1.5% from the high
1 Month
+24.99%
3 Month
+29.30%
YTD
+49.0%
1 Year
+273.2%
3Y CAGR
+73.3%
5Y CAGR
+35.2%
10Y CAGR
+43.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
LRCX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
48.8x
vs 44.6x median
+9% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.6%
vs +10.6% median
-10% below peer median
Net Margin
30.9%
vs 24.7% median
+25% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $344.4B | 48.8x | +9.6% | 30.9% | Buy | +5.4% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $325.8B | 37.1x | +8.9% | 24.7% | Buy | +3.8% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $227.7B | 47.1x | +9.4% | 35.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
ASM ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $560.1B | 44.6x | +22.3% | 29.4% | Buy | +10.6% |
TER TER Teradyne, Inc. | $55.9B | 49.5x | +10.6% | 22.6% | Buy | -1.7% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
LRCX Dividend and Capital Return
LRCX returns capital mainly through $3.4B/year in buybacks (1.0% buyback yield), with a modest 0.32% dividend — combining for 1.3% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 11 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.0%
Dividend Yield
0.32%
Payout Ratio
21.5%
How LRCX Splits Its Return
Div 0.32%
Buyback 1.0%
Dividend 0.32%Buybacks 1.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.89
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
11Y
3Y Div CAGR
15.0%
5Y Div CAGR
14.9%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
12M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.2B
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.26 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.98 | +14.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $0.86 | +15.4% | 2.0% | 2.7% |
| 2023 | $0.74 | +15.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% |
| 2022 | $0.65 | +15.2% | 6.1% | 7.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsLRCX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 50 analysts covering the stock, 38 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $291, implying +5.4% from the current price of $276. The bear case scenario is $184 and the bull case is $699.
02What is the LRCX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for LRCX is $291 based on 50 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $385 (+39.6% from today), and the low-end target is $200 (-27.5%). The base case model target is $505.
03Is Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock overvalued in 2026?
LRCX trades at 48.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for LRCX in 2026 are: (1) Margin Compression — Lam Research projects a sequential decline in gross margin to 48. (2) China Revenue Concentration — China is expected to account for less than 30% of total revenues in 2026, yet geopolitical tensions and U. (3) Excess Inventory & Channel Stuffing — Elevated Days Inventory Outstanding signals potential excess inventory and channel stuffing, which could result in revenue and earnings losses if current sales are drawn from future demand. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Lam Research Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates LRCX will report consensus revenue of $23.8B (+9.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.87 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.5B in revenue.
06When does Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for LRCX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Lam Research Corporation generate?
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) generated $6.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 29.8%. LRCX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($3.4B TTM).