Upside case
Bull case
$2484+72.2%
ASML would need investors to value it at roughly 77x earnings — about 32x more generous than today's 45x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
26 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering ASML
Strong Buy
1
Buy
25
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1595
+10.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$956 – $2484
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $560.1B
ASML price targets
Three scenarios for where ASML stock could go
Current
~$1443
Confidence
77 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1443
Bear
$956
Base
$1901
Bull
$2484
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1901+31.8%
At 59x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$956-33.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 15x multiple contraction could push ASML down roughly 34% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
ASML is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the most advanced equipment needed to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. It generates revenue primarily from selling these multi-million-dollar systems (over 80% of sales) and related services like maintenance and upgrades. Its monopoly on EUV technology — which took decades and billions to develop — creates an insurmountable moat, as no competitor can realistically replicate its complex ecosystem.
Market Cap
$560.1B
Revenue TTM
$31.4B
Net Income TTM
$9.2B
Net Margin
29.4%
ASML Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.55/$5.94
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.41/$6.27
Revenue
$8.7B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.55/$9.04
Revenue
$11.6B/$11.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$8.37/$7.72
Revenue
$10.3B/$10.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.55/$5.94 | -23.4% | $9.0B/$8.8B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.41/$6.27 | +2.2% | $8.7B/$9.0B | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.55/$9.04 | -5.4% | $11.6B/$11.2B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.37/$7.72 | +8.4% | $10.3B/$10.1B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.4B
+22.3% YoY
FY2
$44.2B
+15.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.42
+28.2% YoY
FY2
$36.54
+20.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.7B
FCF Margin: 34.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ASML beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASML Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $28.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Arf immersion
34.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
37.8%
+40.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Arf immersion is the largest disclosed segment at 34.2% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 37.8%, up 40.6% YoY.
ASML Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $1418 — implies -0.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASML
51.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+106% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ASML
51.8x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+94% premium
vs ASML 5Y Avg P/E
Today
51.8x
vs
5Y Average
42.5x
+22% premium
Forward PE
44.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
+134%
Technology
22.1x
+102%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
51.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
+106%
Technology
26.7x
+94%
5Y Avg
42.5x
+22%
PEG Ratio
2.10x
S&P 500
1.72x
+23%
Technology
1.52x
+38%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
39.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
+159%
Technology
17.5x
+126%
5Y Avg
33.4x
+18%
Price/FCF
44.8x
S&P 500
21.1x
+113%
Technology
19.5x
+130%
5Y Avg
44.5x
+1%
Price/Sales
15.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+387%
Technology
2.4x
+523%
5Y Avg
12.3x
+24%
Dividend Yield
0.51%
S&P 500
1.87%
-73%
Technology
1.16%
-56%
5Y Avg
0.78%
-34%
| Metric | ASML | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ASML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.6x | 19.1x+134% | 22.1x+102% | — |
| Trailing PE | 51.8x | 25.1x+106% | 26.7x+94% | 42.5x+22% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.10x | 1.72x+23% | 1.52x+38% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.4x | 15.2x+159% | 17.5x+126% | 33.4x+18% |
| Price/FCF | 44.8x | 21.1x+113% | 19.5x+130% | 44.5x |
| Price/Sales | 15.2x | 3.1x+387% | 2.4x+523% | 12.3x+24% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.51% | 1.87% | 1.16% | 0.78% |
ASML trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASML Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ASML generates $10.7B in free cash flow at a 34.2% margin — 80.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$31.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$23.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
80.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$12.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$10.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
47.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.7%
Dividend
0.5%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
389M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageASML Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Geopolitical & Export Controls
U.S.‑China tensions and proposed U.S. legislation such as the MATCH Act could restrict ASML’s sale of EUV and DUV immersion lithography tools to China, potentially weakening sales by a single‑digit percentage and reducing EPS by up to 10%. China is projected to account for 29% of ASML’s revenue in 2025, amplifying the impact of any export curbs.
High Risk
Technology & Innovation
ASML’s growth hinges on continuous innovation, notably the development of High‑NA EUV systems. Failure to deliver next‑generation lithography or to maintain its technological edge could erode its monopoly and reduce future revenue streams.
Medium
Supply Chain & Supplier Dependence
The company relies on a limited set of key suppliers, such as Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH, creating a risk of production disruptions. Integration of new IT systems also poses operational challenges that could delay shipments.
Medium
Demand & Cyclicality
The semiconductor industry is highly cyclical; a slowdown in customer capital expenditures or delayed expansion plans can directly hit ASML’s business. While AI‑driven demand remains strong, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty adds volatility.
Medium
Revenue Timing & Valuation
ASML derives most revenue from a small number of lithography systems, making shipment timing critical. Overcapacity risks and a P/E ratio above the semiconductor average raise concerns about potential profitability erosion.
Medium
Regulatory & Trade Restrictions
Changes in export controls and trade policies, including Netherlands restrictions on certain metrology and inspection equipment sales to China, can directly limit market access and affect operational plans.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASML Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Dominant EUV Technological Moat
ASML holds a near‑monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, the only technology capable of producing sub‑7nm chips needed for AI accelerators. No competitor has matched its technical leadership, and it is unlikely any will in the foreseeable future.
AI‑Driven Semiconductor Demand Surge
The explosive growth of AI is driving massive demand for more powerful, efficient chips. ASML’s EUV systems are the choke point for this demand, with major chipmakers such as SK Hynix and Samsung committing capacity through 2027.
Robust Financials & Revenue Growth
ASML reports high margins and strong return on invested capital. Analysts project annual sales between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, with gross margins of 56% to 60%.
Recurring Service Revenue & Switching Costs
EUV machines have lifespans of up to 30 years, generating a steady stream of recurring service revenue. The immense technical complexity and long development timelines create enormous switching costs for customers.
Backlog Expansion & 2027 Visibility
ASML’s substantial backlog provides strong visibility into future revenue. Recent large deals, such as SK Hynix’s $8 billion commitment for EUV systems, significantly boost this visibility through 2027.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASML Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1442.92
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$675.50
+113.6% from the low
52-Week High
$1547.22
-6.7% from the high
1 Month
+10.65%
3 Month
+6.87%
YTD
+24.0%
1 Year
+111.2%
3Y CAGR
+30.4%
5Y CAGR
+17.6%
10Y CAGR
+31.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASML vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.6x
vs 47.1x median
-5% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+22.3%
vs +9.4% median
+138% above peer median
Net Margin
29.4%
vs 24.7% median
+19% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASM ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $560.1B | 44.6x | +22.3% | 29.4% | Buy | +10.6% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $325.8B | 37.1x | +8.9% | 24.7% | Buy | +3.8% |
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $344.4B | 48.8x | +9.6% | 30.9% | Buy | +5.4% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $227.7B | 47.1x | +9.4% | 35.7% | Buy | +5.0% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $15.2B | 43.1x | +20.6% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.1% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $2.3B | 91.0x | +0.8% | -11.5% | Buy | +2.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ASML Dividend and Capital Return
ASML returns capital mainly through $5.7B/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.51% dividend — combining for 1.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.51%
Payout Ratio
26.5%
How ASML Splits Its Return
Div 0.51%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.51%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.3%
5Y Div CAGR
20.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
389M
At 1.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.20 | +7.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $6.71 | +4.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $6.46 | -6.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | $6.93 | +74.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsASML Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1595, implying +10.6% from the current price of $1443. The bear case scenario is $956 and the bull case is $2484.
02What is the ASML stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASML is $1595 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1911 (+32.4% from today), and the low-end target is $1200 (-16.8%). The base case model target is $1901.
03Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock overvalued in 2026?
ASML trades at 44.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASML in 2026 are: (1) Geopolitical & Export Controls — U. (2) Technology & Innovation — ASML’s growth hinges on continuous innovation, notably the development of High‑NA EUV systems. (3) Supply Chain & Supplier Dependence — The company relies on a limited set of key suppliers, such as Carl Zeiss SMT GmbH, creating a risk of production disruptions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ASML Holding N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASML will report consensus revenue of $38.4B (+22.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.42 (+28.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $44.2B in revenue.
06When does ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ASML is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ASML Holding N.V. generate?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) generated $10.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.2%. ASML returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.5% yield) and share repurchases ($5.7B TTM).