Upside case
Bull case
$2192+13.6%
ASML would need investors to value it at roughly 68x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 60x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
26 bullish · 3 bearish · 45 covering ASML
Strong Buy
1
Buy
25
Hold
16
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$1694
-12.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$1048 – $2192
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
59.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $749.0B
ASML price targets
Three scenarios for where ASML stock could go
Current
~$1930
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1930
Bear
$1048
Base
$1663
Bull
$2192
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1663-13.8%
At 51x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1048-45.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 27x multiple contraction could push ASML down roughly 46% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
ASML is the world's only manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines — the most advanced equipment needed to produce cutting-edge semiconductors. It generates revenue primarily from selling these multi-million-dollar systems (over 80% of sales) and related services like maintenance and upgrades. Its monopoly on EUV technology — which took decades and billions to develop — creates an insurmountable moat, as no competitor can realistically replicate its complex ecosystem.
Market Cap
$749.0B
Revenue TTM
$31.4B
Net Income TTM
$9.2B
Net Margin
29.4%
ASML Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+2.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$4.55/$5.94
Revenue
$9.0B/$8.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$6.41/$6.27
Revenue
$8.7B/$9.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$8.55/$9.04
Revenue
$11.6B/$11.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$8.37/$7.72
Revenue
$10.3B/$10.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $4.55/$5.94 | -23.4% | $9.0B/$8.8B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.41/$6.27 | +2.2% | $8.7B/$9.0B | -3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.55/$9.04 | -5.4% | $11.6B/$11.2B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.37/$7.72 | +8.4% | $10.3B/$10.1B | +2.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$36.5B
+16.2% YoY
FY2
$42.0B
+15.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$30.45
+28.3% YoY
FY2
$36.96
+21.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$10.7B
FCF Margin: 34.2%
Next Earnings
July 15, 2026
Expected EPS
$8.06
Expected Revenue
$10.5B
ASML beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ASML Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $28.3B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Arf immersion
34.2%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
CHINA
37.8%
+40.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Arf immersion is the largest disclosed segment at 34.2% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
CHINA is the largest reported region at 37.8%, up 40.6% YoY.
ASML Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $2406 — implies +24.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
24.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ASML
70.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+189% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
ASML
70.7x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+144% premium
vs ASML 5Y Avg P/E
Today
70.7x
vs
5Y Average
42.5x
+66% premium
Forward PE
59.6x
S&P 500
18.8x
+217%
Technology
22.3x
+168%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
70.7x
S&P 500
24.4x
+189%
Technology
29.0x
+144%
5Y Avg
42.5x
+66%
PEG Ratio
2.87x
S&P 500
1.66x
+73%
Technology
1.51x
+90%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
54.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+256%
Technology
16.6x
+225%
5Y Avg
33.4x
+62%
Price/FCF
61.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
+195%
Technology
19.2x
+218%
5Y Avg
44.5x
+37%
Price/Sales
20.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+571%
Technology
2.4x
+751%
5Y Avg
12.3x
+68%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
S&P 500
1.91%
-80%
Technology
1.11%
-66%
5Y Avg
0.78%
-52%
| Metric | ASML | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg ASML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 59.6x | 18.8x+217% | 22.3x+168% | — |
| Trailing PE | 70.7x | 24.4x+189% | 29.0x+144% | 42.5x+66% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.87x | 1.66x+73% | 1.51x+90% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 54.1x | 15.2x+256% | 16.6x+225% | 33.4x+62% |
| Price/FCF | 61.1x | 20.7x+195% | 19.2x+218% | 44.5x+37% |
| Price/Sales | 20.7x | 3.1x+571% | 2.4x+751% | 12.3x+68% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.38% | 1.91% | 1.11% | 0.78% |
ASML trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolASML Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ASML generates $10.7B in free cash flow at a 34.2% margin — 80.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$31.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
34.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$23.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$10.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
80.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
18.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$12.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$10.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
47.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.3%
Dividend
0.4%
Buyback
0.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$5.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$6.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
26.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
388M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageASML Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Revenue Decline
Forecasted 2% year-over-year revenue decline to EUR32.1 billion and a 6% drop in earnings per share.
High Risk
Volatility
ASML is a very volatile stock that reacts strongly to future market conditions.
Medium
Valuation Risk
Higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher P/E, but slower growth or higher risk could lead to de-rating.
Medium
Outlook Concerns
Research firms cite concerns about ASML's 2026 outlook, indicating potential bearish sentiment.
Lower
Market Position
ASML holds a monopoly in EUV lithography, but this dominance could face challenges from geopolitical or competitive risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ASML Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
EUV lithography monopoly
ASML holds a near-monopoly in EUV lithography, a critical technology for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, enabling strong margins and strategic importance.
High-NA transition catalyst
The successful transition to High-NA EUV technology is expected to drive significant growth, with a super-bull case projecting a price target of $1,886 by 2026.
Semiconductor industry leadership
ASML is the world's leading supplier of lithography machines, providing essential hardware, software, and services to global chipmakers.
Chip innovation enabler
ASML's technology allows chipmakers to produce smaller, faster, and more energy-efficient semiconductors, underpinning advancements in computing.
Strong capex tailwinds
Major customers like TSMC are increasing capex significantly (e.g., 32% YoY growth projected for 2026), driving demand for ASML's equipment.
High-margin business model
ASML's dominant market position and technological edge contribute to strong profitability and sustainable competitive advantages.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ASML Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1929.68
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$683.48
+182.3% from the low
52-Week High
$1942.87
-0.7% from the high
1 Month
+31.06%
3 Month
+42.39%
YTD
+65.8%
1 Year
+153.4%
3Y CAGR
+38.9%
5Y CAGR
+23.5%
10Y CAGR
+34.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ASML vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
59.6x
vs 68.5x median
-13% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+16.2%
vs +10.2% median
+58% above peer median
Net Margin
29.4%
vs 29.3% median
+0% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ASM ASML ASML Holding N.V. | $749.0B | 59.6x | +16.2% | 29.4% | Buy | -12.2% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $490.0B | 50.5x | +11.5% | 29.3% | Buy | -13.5% |
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $485.8B | 68.5x | +10.2% | 30.9% | Buy | -10.2% |
KLA KLAC KLA Corporation | $34.2B | 70.0x | +8.9% | 35.7% | Buy | +640.1% |
ONT ONTO Onto Innovation Inc. | $16.6B | 46.5x | +11.5% | 10.3% | Buy | +1.5% |
COH COHU Cohu, Inc. | $3.3B | 119.3x | +3.3% | -11.5% | Buy | -28.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ASML Dividend and Capital Return
ASML returns capital mainly through $5.7B/year in buybacks (0.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.38% dividend — combining for 1.3% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.9%
Dividend Yield
0.38%
Payout Ratio
26.5%
How ASML Splits Its Return
Div 0.38%
Buyback 0.9%
Dividend 0.38%Buybacks 0.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$6.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
1.3%
5Y Div CAGR
20.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$5.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
388M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $5.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.20 | +7.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $6.71 | +4.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $6.46 | -6.8% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 2022 | $6.93 | +74.1% | 2.1% | 3.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsASML Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 26 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 16 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $1694, implying -12.2% from the current price of $1930. The bear case scenario is $1048 and the bull case is $2192.
02What is the ASML stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ASML is $1694 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $1911 (-1.0% from today), and the low-end target is $1415 (-26.7%). The base case model target is $1663.
03Is ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock overvalued in 2026?
ASML trades at 59.6x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ASML in 2026 are: (1) Revenue Decline — Forecasted 2% year-over-year revenue decline to EUR32. (2) Volatility — ASML is a very volatile stock that reacts strongly to future market conditions. (3) Valuation Risk — Higher growth expectations and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher P/E, but slower growth or higher risk could lead to de-rating. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ASML Holding N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ASML will report consensus revenue of $36.5B (+16.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $30.45 (+28.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $42.0B in revenue.
06When does ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) report its next earnings?
ASML Holding N.V. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-15. Consensus expects EPS of $8.06 and revenue of $10.5B. Over recent quarters, ASML has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ASML Holding N.V. generate?
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) generated $10.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.2%. ASML returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.4% yield) and share repurchases ($5.7B TTM).