MCRI trades 20.0% above Wall Street's consensus target of $104.50.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MCRI achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 19.8x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of June 22, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $104.50, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $130.66, this represents a potential downside of -20.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.34B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $97.00 to a high of $112.00, representing a 14% spread in expectations. The median target of $104.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, MCRI trades at a trailing P/E of 24.1x and forward P/E of 19.8x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.58 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +22.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $152.69, with bear and bull scenarios of $96.19 and $201.19 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | $40M | $1.41 | — | — | — | — | — |
ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc. | $1.1B | $12.96 | $17.00 | +31.2% | Buy | 18.2x | 6 |
RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc. | $3.6B | $61.33 | $70.78 | +15.4% | Buy | 21.2x | 30 |
BYDBoyd Gaming Corporation | $6.4B | $84.68 | $95.00 | +12.2% | Buy | 11.9x | 38 |
PENNPENN Entertainment, Inc. | $2.8B | $21.30 | $20.57 | -3.4% | Buy | 28.3x | 47 |
CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated | $6.2B | $88.27 | $145.00 | +64.3% | Buy | 12.7x | 23 |
MTNVail Resorts, Inc. | $5.2B | $144.78 | $158.13 | +9.2% | Buy | 33.0x | 48 |
LNWLight & Wonder, Inc. | $8.1B | $97.97 | $205.00 | +109.2% | Hold | 15.9x | 13 |
DKNGDraftKings Inc. | $13.1B | $26.39 | $35.75 | +35.5% | Buy | 111.8x | 48 |
MGMMGM Resorts International | $12.0B | $46.84 | $43.22 | -7.7% | Buy | 27.5x | 37 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MCRI stock.
MCRI's consensus price target is $104.5, -20.0% below the current price of $130.66. The 9 analysts tracking MCRI see downside risk at present valuations.
MCRI has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $104.5 implies -20.0% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 19.7634x, MCRI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $104.5 implies -20.0% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $112 for MCRI, while the most conservative target is $97. The consensus of $104.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $201 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MCRI is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MCRI stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $104.5, with estimates ranging from $97 (bear case) to $112 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $153, with bear/bull scenarios of $96/$201.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MCRI's fair value at $153 (base case), with a bear case of $96 and bull case of $201. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
MCRI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 19.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 24.1x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on MCRI, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $104.5 (-20.0% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MCRI analyst price targets range from $97 to $112, a 14% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $104.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $96-$201 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
See how regular investing compounds over time.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.