MCRI trades 3.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $122.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MCRI achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 17.2x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 9 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. (MCRI) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $122.00, based on estimates from 9 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $117.57, this represents a potential upside of +3.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.09B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $114.00 to a high of $128.00, representing a 11% spread in expectations. The median target of $124.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,6 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, MCRI trades at a trailing P/E of 21.7x and forward P/E of 17.2x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.50 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +14.3% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $152.69, with bear and bull scenarios of $96.19 and $201.19 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CNTYCentury Casinos, Inc. | $31M | $1.11 | — | — | — | — | — |
 ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc. | $902M | $11.08 | $14.33 | +29.3% | Buy | 16.0x | 6 |
 RRRRed Rock Resorts, Inc. | $3.0B | $50.90 | $71.40 | +40.3% | Buy | 18.8x | 30 |
 BYDBoyd Gaming Corporation | $5.2B | $71.74 | $91.63 | +27.7% | Buy | 9.9x | 38 |
 PENNPENN Entertainment, Inc. | $2.1B | $15.56 | $24.60 | +58.1% | Buy | 18.2x | 47 |
 CHDNChurchill Downs Incorporated | $5.6B | $80.46 | $132.00 | +64.1% | Buy | 11.6x | 23 |
 MTNVail Resorts, Inc. | $5.0B | $140.05 | $152.00 | +8.5% | Buy | 32.6x | 48 |
 LNWLight & Wonder, Inc. | $8.1B | $97.97 | $128.11 | +30.8% | Hold | 15.9x | 13 |
 DKNGDraftKings Inc. | $10.5B | $21.25 | $33.56 | +57.9% | Buy | 181.2x | 48 |
 MGMMGM Resorts International | $9.5B | $37.85 | $48.03 | +26.9% | Buy | 20.6x | 37 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MCRI stock.
The consensus price target for MCRI is $122, close to the current price of $117.57 (3.8% implied move). Based on 9 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
MCRI has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 9 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 6 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $122 implies 3.8% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 17.1628x, MCRI trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $122 implies 3.8% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $128 for MCRI, while the most conservative target is $114. The consensus of $122 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $201 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MCRI is moderately covered, with 9 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 6 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MCRI stock forecast based on 9 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $122, with estimates ranging from $114 (bear case) to $128 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $153, with bear/bull scenarios of $96/$201.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MCRI's fair value at $153 (base case), with a bear case of $96 and bull case of $201. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
MCRI trades at a forward P/E ratio of 17.2x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 21.7x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
MCRI appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $122 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MCRI analyst price targets range from $114 to $128, a 11% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $122 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $96-$201 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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