Upside case
Bull case
$79+62.5%
MKC-V would need investors to value it at roughly 26x earnings — about 10x more generous than today's 16x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
21
analysts
3 bullish · 4 bearish · 21 covering MKC-V
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
14
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$86
+76.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$38 – $79
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
21
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $13.1B
MKC-V price targets
Three scenarios for where MKC-V stock could go
Current
~$49
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $49
Bear
$38
Base
$60
Bull
$79
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$60+23.3%
At 19x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$38-22.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push MKC-V down roughly 22% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated
MKC-V · NYSEConsumer DefensivePackaged FoodsNovember year-end
McCormick & Company is a global leader in flavor, manufacturing and distributing spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products. It generates revenue through two main segments: Consumer (roughly 60% of sales) selling branded products to retail stores, and Flavor Solutions (roughly 40%) providing custom flavor systems to food manufacturers and foodservice operators. The company's moat lies in its extensive portfolio of iconic brands—including McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, and Old Bay—coupled with deep R&D capabilities in flavor science and a global distribution network.
Market Cap
$13.1B
Revenue TTM
$7.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
22.0%
MKC-V Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.65/$0.65
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.83
Revenue
$1.7B/$1.7B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.88
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.66/$0.59
Revenue
$1.9B/$1.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.65/$0.65 | +0.0% | $1.7B/$1.7B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.84/$0.83 | +1.0% | $1.7B/$1.7B | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.88 | -1.8% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +0.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.66/$0.59 | +11.1% | $1.9B/$1.8B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.4B
+8.1% YoY
FY2
$8.0B
+8.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.34
+14.0% YoY
FY2
$3.61
+8.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 16.7%
Next Earnings
June 25, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.70
Expected Revenue
$1.9B
MKC-V beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MKC-V Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $6.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Consumer
57.8%
+2.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
71.2%
+1.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Consumer is the largest disclosed segment at 57.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 2.6% YoY.
Americas is the largest reported region at 71.2%, up 1.4% YoY.
MKC-V Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $55 — implies +18.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MKC-V
16.7x
vs
S&P 500
24.9x
33% discount
vs Consumer Defensive Trailing P/E
MKC-V
16.7x
vs
Consumer Defensive
18.8x
12% discount
vs MKC-V 5Y Avg P/E
Today
16.7x
vs
5Y Average
27.9x
40% discount
Forward PE
15.8x
S&P 500
19.2x
-18%
Consumer Defensive
14.5x
+9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
16.7x
S&P 500
24.9x
-33%
Consumer Defensive
18.8x
-12%
5Y Avg
27.9x
-40%
PEG Ratio
15.79x
S&P 500
1.66x
+848%
Consumer Defensive
2.01x
+684%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-16%
Consumer Defensive
11.0x
+17%
5Y Avg
21.0x
-39%
Price/FCF
17.7x
S&P 500
20.9x
-15%
Consumer Defensive
16.3x
+9%
5Y Avg
35.1x
-49%
Price/Sales
1.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-39%
Consumer Defensive
0.9x
+116%
5Y Avg
3.1x
-39%
Dividend Yield
3.67%
S&P 500
1.91%
+92%
Consumer Defensive
3.04%
+21%
5Y Avg
1.74%
+111%
| Metric | MKC-V | S&P 500 | Consumer Defensive | 5Y Avg MKC-V |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.8x | 19.2x-18% | 14.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 16.7x | 24.9x-33% | 18.8x-12% | 27.9x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | 15.79x | 1.66x+848% | 2.01x+684% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.9x | 15.3x-16% | 11.0x+17% | 21.0x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 17.7x | 20.9x-15% | 16.3x | 35.1x-49% |
| Price/Sales | 1.9x | 3.1x-39% | 0.9x+116% | 3.1x-39% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.67% | 1.91% | 3.04% | 1.74% |
MKC-V trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMKC-V Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
MKC-V generates $1.2B in free cash flow at a 16.7% margin — returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
38.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.03
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
8.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
11.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$96M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.2× FCF
~3.2 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
24.4%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (8.5%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$35M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.79
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
61.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
269M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageMKC-V Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The PEG ratio of 4.02 and P/B ratio of 3.45 suggest the stock is overvalued, posing a risk of downward price correction.
Medium
Earnings growth uncertainty
Analysts project modest 7.82% earnings growth, which may not justify current valuation multiples.
Medium
Consensus rating risk
The consensus 'Hold' rating with 6 holds and no sells indicates limited bullish sentiment.
Lower
Price target downside
The bear case price target of $36-$42 implies significant downside risk from current levels.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MKC-V Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Global flavor leader
McCormick operates in 150 countries with leading market share in spices and flavorings, reinforcing its strong global presence.
Iconic brand portfolio
The company's well-known brands like McCormick Essentials and Finishing Salts drive consistent consumer demand and loyalty.
Diverse product offerings
McCormick provides a wide range of spices, seasonings, and condiments, catering to both retail and foodservice markets.
Long-standing market presence
With roots dating back to 1889, McCormick has established itself as a trusted and enduring player in the food industry.
Retail and foodservice reach
The company serves both retail consumers and food manufacturers, diversifying its revenue streams and customer base.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MKC-V Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$48.87
52W Range Position
14%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$44.30
+10.3% from the low
52-Week High
$77.65
-37.1% from the high
1 Month
+4.98%
3 Month
-7.04%
YTD
-26.9%
1 Year
-33.4%
3Y CAGR
-19.8%
5Y CAGR
-10.9%
10Y CAGR
-0.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MKC-V vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.8x
vs 12.5x median
+27% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.1%
vs +2.7% median
+200% above peer median
Net Margin
22.0%
vs 3.8% median
+476% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MKC MKC-V McCormick & Company, Incorporated | $13.1B | 15.8x | +8.1% | 22.0% | Hold | +76.7% |
SJM SJM The J. M. Smucker Company | $12.0B | 12.5x | +3.0% | -1.5% | Buy | +7.0% |
CHD CHD Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $23.2B | 26.2x | +4.3% | 11.8% | Buy | +7.0% |
HRL HRL Hormel Foods Corporation | $14.3B | 17.5x | +2.1% | 3.8% | Hold | -9.7% |
CPB CPB Campbell Soup Company | $6.7B | 10.3x | +2.7% | 6.1% | Hold | -7.5% |
CAG CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | $6.6B | 8.1x | +0.4% | -0.4% | Hold | +10.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MKC-V Dividend and Capital Return
MKC-V returns 4.1% total yield, led by a 3.78% dividend, raised 23 consecutive years.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
3.78%
Payout Ratio
61.2%
How MKC-V Splits Its Return
Div 3.78%
Dividend 3.78%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.79
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
23Y
3Y Div CAGR
6.9%
5Y Div CAGR
7.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$35M
Estimated Shares Retired
712.1K
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
269M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.48 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.83 | +7.0% | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $1.71 | +7.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| 2023 | $1.59 | +6.0% | 0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | +7.9% | 0.2% | 1.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsMKC-V Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $86, implying +76.7% from the current price of $49. The bear case scenario is $38 and the bull case is $79.
02What is the MKC-V stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MKC-V is $86 based on 21 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $94 (+92.3% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+67.8%). The base case model target is $60.
03Is McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) stock overvalued in 2026?
MKC-V trades at 15.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MKC-V in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The PEG ratio of 4. (2) Earnings growth uncertainty — Analysts project modest 7. (3) Consensus rating risk — The consensus 'Hold' rating with 6 holds and no sells indicates limited bullish sentiment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is McCormick & Company, Incorporated's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MKC-V will report consensus revenue of $7.4B (+8.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.34 (+14.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.0B in revenue.
06When does McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) report its next earnings?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-06-25. Consensus expects EPS of $0.70 and revenue of $1.9B. Over recent quarters, MKC-V has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does McCormick & Company, Incorporated generate?
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC-V) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.7%. MKC-V returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.8% yield) and share repurchases ($35M TTM).