Upside case
Bull case
$432+99.4%
ERIE would need investors to value it at roughly 34x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewNo CoverageUpdated —
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Mixed
Covering
—
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 0 covering ERIE
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$188 – $432
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
—
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
17.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
ERIE price targets
Three scenarios for where ERIE stock could go
Current
~$217
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
—
Where we are now
Current · $217
Bear
$188
Base
$317
Bull
$432
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$317+46.2%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$188-13.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ERIE down roughly 13% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Erie Indemnity Company
ERIE · NASDAQFinancial ServicesInsurance - BrokersDecember year-end
Erie Indemnity Company is a management company that operates as the attorney-in-fact for the Erie Insurance Exchange, providing sales, underwriting, policy issuance, and administrative services for the mutual insurance exchange. It earns management fees—typically around 25% of premiums written—for these services, with essentially all revenue coming from this single stream. The company's key advantage is its exclusive, perpetual management contract with the Erie Insurance Exchange—a unique mutual structure that creates a symbiotic relationship with policyholder-owners.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Revenue TTM
$4.3B
Net Income TTM
$571M
Net Margin
13.2%
ERIE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-5.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.34/$3.48
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.50/$3.37
Revenue
$1.3B/$976M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.33/$1.59
Revenue
$951M/$976M
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.88/$3.06
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.34/$3.48 | -4.0% | $1.1B/$1.1B | -2.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.50/$3.37 | +3.9% | $1.3B/$976M | +33.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.33/$1.59 | -120.8% | $951M/$976M | -2.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.88/$3.06 | -5.9% | $1.0B/$1.1B | -7.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.7B
+7.5% YoY
FY2
$5.2B
+9.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$13.69
+26.3% YoY
FY2
$15.52
+13.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$537M
FCF Margin: 12.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ERIE beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ERIE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Policy Issuance and Renewal Services
99.2%
+8.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Policy Issuance and Renewal Services is the largest disclosed segment at 99.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 8.2% YoY.
ERIE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $196 — implies -8.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
8.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ERIE
20.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
19% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ERIE
20.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.1x
+55% premium
vs ERIE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
20.4x
vs
5Y Average
35.9x
43% discount
Forward PE
17.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-10%
Financial Services
10.4x
+64%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
20.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-19%
Financial Services
13.1x
+55%
5Y Avg
35.9x
-43%
PEG Ratio
1.50x
S&P 500
1.70x
-12%
Financial Services
1.01x
+48%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.1x
S&P 500
15.3x
-21%
Financial Services
11.5x
+6%
5Y Avg
26.1x
-54%
Price/FCF
17.5x
S&P 500
21.4x
-18%
Financial Services
10.6x
+66%
5Y Avg
41.1x
-57%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-20%
Financial Services
2.3x
+9%
5Y Avg
4.5x
-45%
Dividend Yield
2.23%
S&P 500
1.90%
+17%
Financial Services
2.68%
-17%
5Y Avg
1.60%
+39%
| Metric | ERIE | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ERIE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 17.1x | 19.1x-10% | 10.4x+64% | — |
| Trailing PE | 20.4x | 25.1x-19% | 13.1x+55% | 35.9x-43% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.50x | 1.70x-12% | 1.01x+48% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 15.3x-21% | 11.5x | 26.1x-54% |
| Price/FCF | 17.5x | 21.4x-18% | 10.6x+66% | 41.1x-57% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-20% | 2.3x | 4.5x-45% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.23% | 1.90% | 2.68% | 1.60% |
ERIE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolERIE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ERIE posts 13.2% net margin with 25.0% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.8%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$10.84
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
25.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
29.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$346M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$346M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.2%
Dividend
2.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$4.83
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
46M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageERIE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Management Fee Sustainability
Concerns have been raised by Spruce Point Capital Management regarding the sustainability of ERIE's 25% management fee, which is collected on premiums written by the Erie Insurance Exchange. A significant downside risk to the stock is estimated based on this concern.
High Risk
Exchange's Financial Performance
The Erie Insurance Exchange has reported substantial operating losses and a diminishing surplus, which historically has led to reductions in management fees. This trend raises concerns about the potential for similar outcomes affecting ERIE's financial health.
High Risk
Underwriting Losses and Surplus Reduction
The Exchange has faced significant underwriting losses and a reduction in surplus, coupled with an elevated premium-to-surplus ratio. This situation raises serious concerns about the financial stability of the Exchange and its implications for ERIE.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
ERIE's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is considered high compared to industry and peer averages, indicating that the market may be overvaluing its earnings. This could lead to downward pressure on the stock if earnings or margins fail to meet expectations.
Medium
Earnings Growth and Profit Margins
Despite a strong historical earnings growth rate, ERIE has recently reported negative earnings growth and slightly lower net profit margins compared to the previous year. This trend could signal potential challenges in maintaining profitability.
Medium
Cybersecurity Risks
The insurance industry is increasingly vulnerable to cybersecurity threats, including the risk of customer data exposure due to hacking incidents. Such breaches could lead to identity theft and significant reputational damage for ERIE.
Lower
Inflation and Rising Claims Costs
Inflationary pressures may lead to increased premiums across various insurance types and could slow down claim processing as insurers become more cost-conscious. This could impact ERIE's operational efficiency and profitability.
Lower
Talent and Cost Pressures
ERIE faces challenges related to talent acquisition and retention, alongside general cost pressures that could affect its margins. These factors may hinder the company's ability to operate efficiently and maintain competitive advantages.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ERIE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Return to Profitability
Erie Indemnity has reported a return to profitability, with improved net income and operating income in recent quarters. This improvement is attributed to more typical weather patterns and a more balanced operating environment, leading to a better combined ratio.
Technology Modernization
The company is actively advancing its core technology systems, moving them onto newer platforms. These efforts are seen as significant changes that will improve operational efficiency and the company's ability to respond to customer needs.
Undervalued Stock
Some analyses suggest that ERIE stock may be undervalued. One valuation model indicates the stock is approximately 12.9% undervalued, with an estimated intrinsic value of around $264.13 per share, compared to a recent share price around $229.93.
Dividend Growth
Erie Indemnity has a history of increasing its dividend for 36 years, with a current dividend yield of around 2.4% to 2.53%. This consistent dividend growth can be attractive to income-focused investors.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
While some reports indicate a 'Hold' consensus, others show a 'Moderate Buy' rating based on a limited number of analysts. One analyst maintained a bullish stance with a 'Buy' rating, citing discounted valuation with above-peer growth and expected earnings recovery.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ERIE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$216.75
52W Range Position
4%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$210.06
+3.2% from the low
52-Week High
$380.67
-43.1% from the high
1 Month
-12.79%
3 Month
-19.59%
YTD
-22.0%
1 Year
-40.3%
3Y CAGR
-2.4%
5Y CAGR
+0.6%
10Y CAGR
+8.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ERIE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
17.1x
vs 10.1x median
+70% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.5%
vs +2.3% median
+227% above peer median
Net Margin
13.2%
vs 12.9% median
+3% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERI ERIE Erie Indemnity Company | $10.0B | 17.1x | +7.5% | 13.2% | — | — |
PGR PGR The Progressive Corporation | $114.7B | 12.0x | +11.1% | 12.6% | Hold | +17.6% |
ALL ALL The Allstate Corporation | $55.0B | 7.9x | +1.8% | 18.1% | Buy | +14.4% |
TRV TRV The Travelers Companies, Inc. | $64.6B | 10.7x | -1.4% | 12.9% | Hold | +4.7% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.5B | 10.1x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +14.6% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $11.8B | 9.1x | +2.3% | 9.0% | Hold | +3.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ERIE Dividend and Capital Return
ERIE returns 2.2% total yield, led by a 2.23% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
2.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.23%
Payout Ratio
45.5%
How ERIE Splits Its Return
Div 2.23%
Dividend 2.23%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$4.83
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-1.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
46M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.38 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $5.46 | +7.1% | 0.0% | 1.7% |
| 2024 | $5.10 | +7.1% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| 2023 | $4.76 | +7.2% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $4.44 | +7.2% | 0.0% | 1.8% |
FAQ
6 questionsERIE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) has limited published analyst coverage at this time. The model scenario range runs from $188 to $432 around a current price of $217. Use the scenario targets and valuation multiples on this page as a guide.
02Is Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) stock overvalued in 2026?
ERIE trades at 17.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ERIE in 2026 are: (1) Management Fee Sustainability — Concerns have been raised by Spruce Point Capital Management regarding the sustainability of ERIE's 25% management fee, which is collected on premiums written by the Erie Insurance Exchange. (2) Exchange's Financial Performance — The Erie Insurance Exchange has reported substantial operating losses and a diminishing surplus, which historically has led to reductions in management fees. (3) Underwriting Losses and Surplus Reduction — The Exchange has faced significant underwriting losses and a reduction in surplus, coupled with an elevated premium-to-surplus ratio. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Erie Indemnity Company's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ERIE will report consensus revenue of $4.7B (+7.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $13.69 (+26.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.2B in revenue.
05When does Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ERIE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Erie Indemnity Company generate?
Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) generated $537M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.4%. ERIE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).