MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$103.01
Price Target
$97.75
Target Range
$85.00 — $117.00
Analyst Rating
Hold
Forward P/E23.7x
Trailing P/E28.9x
Forward PEG—
Implied Growth+19.0%
Median Target$94.50
Analyst Spread32.7%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$85
-17.5%
Consensus
$98
-5.1%
Bull Case
$117
+13.6%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 57/100
Bear$92
Base$123
Bull$219
MSM Price Target Analysis
Updated May 6, 2026As of May 6, 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $97.75, based on estimates from 28 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $103.01, this represents a potential downside of -5.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $5.75B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $85.00 to a high of $117.00, representing a 33% spread in expectations. The median target of $94.50 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 9 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,18 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, MSM trades at a trailing P/E of 28.9x and forward P/E of 23.7x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +19.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $122.54, with bear and bull scenarios of $91.70 and $218.83 respectively. Model confidence stands at 57/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Industrials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+15.3%
Avg Forward P/E26.0x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $54.0B | $1134.78 | $1157.43 | +2.0% | Hold | 26.0x | 38 |
 FASTFastenal Company | $50.9B | $44.33 | $46.57 | +5.1% | Hold | 35.8x | 31 |
 SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $5.4B | $121.06 | $162.29 | +34.1% | Buy | 27.8x | 15 |
 WSOWatsco, Inc. | $17.1B | $420.68 | $399.80 | -5.0% | Hold | 33.4x | 26 |
 DNOWDnow Inc. | $1.4B | $13.62 | $17.00 | +24.8% | Buy | 21.5x | 16 |
 WDFCWD-40 Company | $4.2B | $209.34 | $300.00 | +43.3% | Hold | 34.9x | 7 |
 SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19.7B | $378.80 | $413.00 | +9.0% | Buy | 19.8x | 17 |
 SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $12.0B | $77.46 | $89.17 | +15.1% | Hold | 17.0x | 37 |
 ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $73.4B | $254.55 | $273.67 | +7.5% | Hold | 22.6x | 28 |
 EMREmerson Electric Co. | $77.8B | $138.40 | $161.92 | +17.0% | Buy | 21.3x | 41 |
Upside Potential Comparison
WDFCSITEDNOWEMRSWKSNAITWFASTSee MSM's True Return
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Start ComparisonMSM — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MSM stock.
What is the MSM stock price target for 2026?
Wall Street's consensus price target for MSM is $97.75, -5.1% from its current price of $103.01. The below-market target from 28 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
Is MSM a buy, sell, or hold?
MSM has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 28 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 18 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $97.75 implies -5.1% downside from current levels.
Is MSM stock overvalued or undervalued?
MSM trades at a forward P/E of 23.6864x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $97.75 (-5.1% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
How high can MSM stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $117 for MSM, while the most conservative target is $85. The consensus of $97.75 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $219 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover MSM stock?
MSM is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 28 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 9 have Buy ratings, 18 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the MSM stock forecast?
The 12-month MSM stock forecast based on 28 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $97.75, with estimates ranging from $85 (bear case) to $117 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $123, with bear/bull scenarios of $92/$219.
What is MSM's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MSM's fair value at $123 (base case), with a bear case of $92 and bull case of $219. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 57/100.
What is MSM's forward P/E ratio?
MSM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 28.9x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy MSM stock?
Analysts are cautious on MSM, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $97.75 (-5.1% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do MSM price targets vary so much?
MSM analyst price targets range from $85 to $117, a 33% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $97.75 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $92-$219 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.