MSM trades 16.8% below Wall Street's consensus target of $145.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes MSM achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 26.8x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 29 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $145.00, based on estimates from 29 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $124.10, this represents a potential upside of +16.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $6.93B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $130.00 to a high of $155.00, representing a 17% spread in expectations. The median target of $145.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 10 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,18 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, MSM trades at a trailing P/E of 34.8x and forward P/E of 26.8x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +12.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $148.61, with bear and bull scenarios of $93.63 and $195.82 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GWWW.W. Grainger, Inc. | $60.0B | $1270.67 | $1312.00 | +3.3% | Hold | 27.3x | 39 |
 FASTFastenal Company | $58.5B | $50.99 | $49.00 | -3.9% | Hold | 40.2x | 32 |
 SITESiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. | $4.2B | $93.77 | $129.00 | +37.6% | Buy | 22.6x | 16 |
 WSOWatsco, Inc. | $13.4B | $325.37 | $405.00 | +24.5% | Hold | 26.9x | 27 |
 DNOWDnow Inc. | $2.9B | $15.71 | $19.00 | +20.9% | Buy | 45.3x | 18 |
 WDFCWD-40 Company | $2.7B | $199.34 | $475.00 | +138.3% | Hold | 32.0x | 7 |
 SNASnap-on Incorporated | $19.2B | $370.25 | $445.25 | +20.3% | Buy | 19.4x | 17 |
 SWKStanley Black & Decker, Inc. | $13.9B | $91.76 | $92.00 | +0.3% | Hold | 20.2x | 37 |
 ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc. | $78.7B | $273.42 | $280.71 | +2.7% | Hold | 23.9x | 28 |
 EMREmerson Electric Co. | $86.6B | $154.55 | $164.67 | +6.5% | Buy | 23.6x | 42 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MSM stock.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) has a consensus 12-month price target of $145, implying 16.8% upside from $124.1. The 29 analysts covering MSM see moderate appreciation potential.
MSM has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 29 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 18 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $145 implies 16.8% upside from current levels.
MSM trades at a forward P/E of 26.7815x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $145 (16.8% implied move), the stock appears reasonably valued with upside.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $155 for MSM, while the most conservative target is $130. The consensus of $145 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $196 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
MSM is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 29 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 10 have Buy ratings, 18 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month MSM stock forecast based on 29 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $145, with estimates ranging from $130 (bear case) to $155 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $149, with bear/bull scenarios of $94/$196.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MSM's fair value at $149 (base case), with a bear case of $94 and bull case of $196. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
MSM trades at a forward P/E ratio of 26.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 34.8x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on MSM, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $145 price target (16.8% upside). 10 of 29 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
MSM analyst price targets range from $130 to $155, a 17% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $145 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $94-$196 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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