Upside case
Bull case
$233+300.0%
MT would need investors to value it at roughly 50x earnings — about 38x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
22 bullish · 4 bearish · 44 covering MT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
18
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$55
-6.3% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $233
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $44.3B
MT price targets
Three scenarios for where MT stock could go
Current
~$58
Confidence
54 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $58
Base
$61
Bull
$233
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$61+5.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing MT — at roughly 13x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ArcelorMittal S.A.
MT · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
ArcelorMittal is the world's largest steel producer, manufacturing and selling a wide range of steel products — from flat products like coils and sheets to long products like bars and rails — for automotive, construction, and industrial customers. It generates revenue primarily from steel sales (roughly 85% of total) and mining operations (about 15%) that supply its own steelmaking with iron ore and coal. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, vertical integration — owning mines that supply its steel mills — and global footprint across Europe, the Americas, and other key markets.
Market Cap
$44.3B
Revenue TTM
$61.4B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
5.1%
MT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.32/$1.33
Revenue
$15.9B/$15.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.58
Revenue
$15.7B/$15.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.56
Revenue
$15.0B/$16.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.75/$0.72
Revenue
—/$17.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.32/$1.33 | -0.8% | $15.9B/$15.9B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.58 | +6.9% | $15.7B/$15.6B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.56 | +53.6% | $15.0B/$16.2B | -7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.75/$0.72 | +4.2% | —/$17.0B | — |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$60.6B
-1.2% YoY
FY2
$59.3B
-2.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.08
-1.1% YoY
FY2
$4.32
+5.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$471M
FCF Margin: 0.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $61.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Flat products
55.5%
-3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
26.8%
-1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Flat products is the largest disclosed segment at 55.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.7% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 26.8%, down 1.7% YoY.
MT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $66 — implies +16.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
16.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MT
14.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
44% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
MT
14.2x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
36% discount
vs MT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.2x
vs
5Y Average
11.0x
+28% premium
Forward PE
12.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-34%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.2x
S&P 500
25.1x
-44%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-36%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+28%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Basic Materials
1.17x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
7.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
-48%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-28%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+97%
Price/FCF
94.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+346%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+267%
5Y Avg
26.3x
+257%
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-77%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-62%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+83%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
S&P 500
1.87%
-49%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-29%
5Y Avg
1.43%
-34%
| Metric | MT | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg MT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.6x | 19.1x-34% | 15.2x-17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.2x | 25.1x-44% | 22.3x-36% | 11.0x+28% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.17x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.9x | 15.2x-48% | 11.0x-28% | 4.0x+97% |
| Price/FCF | 94.0x | 21.1x+346% | 25.6x+267% | 26.3x+257% |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-77% | 1.9x-62% | 0.4x+83% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.94% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 1.43% |
MT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MT returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$61.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.13
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$471M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
16.8× FCF
~16.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$262M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
761M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
U.S. Steel Tariffs
ArcelorMittal faces heightened U.S. tariffs on steel imports, which can increase input costs and compress margins. A sudden tariff hike could reduce export volumes and erode profitability in key markets.
High Risk
Global Demand Weakness
Weak industrial output in Europe and a downturn in China’s property sector dampen flat steel demand. Prolonged slowdown could delay the steel cycle recovery, squeezing sales and earnings.
High Risk
Low Steel Spreads
Persistently narrow steel spreads limit ArcelorMittal’s ability to generate cash flow. Extended periods of low spreads could constrain capital flexibility and delay investment plans.
Medium
Decarbonization Capital Risk
The company is investing €1.3 billion in an electric arc furnace in Dunkirk to support decarbonization. Delays or cost overruns could negatively impact free cash flow and delay return on investment.
Medium
Rising Net Debt
Net debt climbed to $9.1 billion in Q3 2025, exceeding the target of below $7 billion. Higher leverage may limit financial flexibility and increase interest burden.
Medium
Liquidity Pressure
ArcelorMittal’s quick ratio was 0.58 in November 2025, indicating reliance on inventory for immediate debt coverage. In a volatile market, this could strain short‑term liquidity.
Medium
Value Destruction via ROIC
The company’s ROIC is below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), signaling that capital is not generating sufficient returns. Continued value erosion could depress shareholder value over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Earnings Growth 38% YoY
ArcelorMittal’s earnings have outperformed analyst expectations, with a projected 38.17% increase in earnings for the coming year. The company’s net income has risen significantly, and adjusted net income supports a rise in earnings per share.
Undervalued P/E Relative to Peers
The current stock price trades at a P/E ratio lower than the market average and industry peers, suggesting a buying opportunity. Some analyses indicate the stock may be undervalued.
Solid Dividend Yield & Capital Returns
ArcelorMittal offers a solid dividend yield, providing a steady income stream for investors. The company also returns capital through dividends and buybacks.
Decarbonization & Green Steel Demand
Strategic investments in decarbonization projects and green steel are expected to support higher‑margin demand from customers willing to pay for lower emissions steel. Growth projects and asset optimization in India and Brazil are anticipated to lift normalized profitability.
Positive Analyst Sentiment & Upgrades
The consensus among analysts leans toward a "Buy" or "Hold" rating, with several analysts issuing upgrades. This sentiment reinforces confidence in the company’s outlook.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$58.18
52W Range Position
75%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.62
+96.4% from the low
52-Week High
$67.60
-13.9% from the high
1 Month
+9.07%
3 Month
+1.64%
YTD
+23.3%
1 Year
+91.8%
3Y CAGR
+28.9%
5Y CAGR
+13.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.6x
vs 16.2x median
-22% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.2%
vs +3.7% median
-131% below peer median
Net Margin
5.1%
vs 5.5% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MT MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | $44.3B | 12.6x | -1.2% | 5.1% | Buy | -6.3% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $52.9B | 16.5x | +4.4% | 6.8% | Buy | -4.0% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $34.4B | 15.9x | +6.0% | 7.2% | Buy | -20.7% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $6.1B | — | +3.7% | -7.9% | Hold | +4.3% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $19.0B | 19.1x | +3.0% | 5.4% | Hold | -2.7% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $7.7B | 10.7x | +2.4% | 5.5% | Buy | +18.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MT Dividend and Capital Return
MT returns 1.5% total yield, led by a 0.94% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
0.94%
Payout Ratio
13.4%
How MT Splits Its Return
Div 0.94%
Buyback 0.6%
Dividend 0.94%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
19.4%
5Y Div CAGR
28.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
6 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$262M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
761M
At 0.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.55 | +10.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $0.50 | +33.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% |
| 2023 | $0.37 | +15.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $0.32 | +7.7% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $55, implying -6.3% from the current price of $58.
02What is the MT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MT is $55 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+3.1% from today), and the low-end target is $49 (-15.8%). The base case model target is $61.
03Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock overvalued in 2026?
MT trades at 12.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MT in 2026 are: (1) U.S. Steel Tariffs — ArcelorMittal faces heightened U. (2) Global Demand Weakness — Weak industrial output in Europe and a downturn in China’s property sector dampen flat steel demand. (3) Low Steel Spreads — Persistently narrow steel spreads limit ArcelorMittal’s ability to generate cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ArcelorMittal S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MT will report consensus revenue of $60.6B (-1.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.08 (-1.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $59.3B in revenue.
06When does ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MT is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ArcelorMittal S.A. generate?
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) generated $471M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.8%. MT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($262M TTM).