Upside case
Bull case
$101+59.2%
MT would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 8x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
44
analysts
22 bullish · 4 bearish · 44 covering MT
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
18
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$60
-5.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$48 – $101
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
44
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $48.3B
MT price targets
Three scenarios for where MT stock could go
Current
~$63
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $63
Bear
$48
Base
$77
Bull
$101
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$77+20.9%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$48-23.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 3x multiple contraction could push MT down roughly 24% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ArcelorMittal S.A.
MT · NYSEBasic MaterialsSteelDecember year-end
ArcelorMittal is the world's largest steel producer, manufacturing and selling a wide range of steel products — from flat products like coils and sheets to long products like bars and rails — for automotive, construction, and industrial customers. It generates revenue primarily from steel sales (roughly 85% of total) and mining operations (about 15%) that supply its own steelmaking with iron ore and coal. The company's competitive advantage lies in its massive scale, vertical integration — owning mines that supply its steel mills — and global footprint across Europe, the Americas, and other key markets.
Market Cap
$48.3B
Revenue TTM
$61.4B
Net Income TTM
$3.2B
Net Margin
5.1%
MT Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
44%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+25.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.32/$1.33
Revenue
$15.9B/$15.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.58
Revenue
$15.7B/$15.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.86/$0.56
Revenue
$15.0B/$16.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.75/$0.72
Revenue
$15.5B/$17.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.32/$1.33 | -0.8% | $15.9B/$15.9B | +0.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.62/$0.58 | +6.9% | $15.7B/$15.6B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.86/$0.56 | +53.6% | $15.0B/$16.2B | -7.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.75/$0.72 | +4.2% | $15.5B/$17.0B | -9.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$63.7B
+3.9% YoY
FY2
$65.9B
+3.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.14
+0.3% YoY
FY2
$4.45
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$471M
FCF Margin: 0.8%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.25
Expected Revenue
$17.0B
MT beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
MT Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $61.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Flat products
55.5%
-3.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
26.8%
-1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Flat products is the largest disclosed segment at 55.5% of FY 2025 revenue, down 3.7% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 26.8%, down 1.7% YoY.
MT Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $89 — implies +40.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
40.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MT
15.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
37% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
MT
15.4x
vs
Basic Materials
23.6x
35% discount
vs MT 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.4x
vs
5Y Average
11.0x
+40% premium
Forward PE
13.5x
S&P 500
18.8x
-28%
Basic Materials
14.9x
-9%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-37%
Basic Materials
23.6x
-35%
5Y Avg
11.0x
+40%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Basic Materials
1.23x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-44%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-22%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+112%
Price/FCF
102.5x
S&P 500
20.7x
+395%
Basic Materials
29.0x
+253%
5Y Avg
26.3x
+289%
Price/Sales
0.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-75%
Basic Materials
1.9x
-58%
5Y Avg
0.4x
+99%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
S&P 500
1.91%
-55%
Basic Materials
1.41%
-38%
5Y Avg
1.43%
-39%
| Metric | MT | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg MT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.5x | 18.8x-28% | 14.9x | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.4x | 24.4x-37% | 23.6x-35% | 11.0x+40% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.23x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5x | 15.2x-44% | 11.0x-22% | 4.0x+112% |
| Price/FCF | 102.5x | 20.7x+395% | 29.0x+253% | 26.3x+289% |
| Price/Sales | 0.8x | 3.1x-75% | 1.9x-58% | 0.4x+99% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.87% | 1.91% | 1.41% | 1.43% |
MT trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMT Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
MT returns 1.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$61.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
54.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$4.13
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$471M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$7.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
16.8× FCF
~16.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.7%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.4%
Dividend
0.9%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$262M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.55
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
13.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
761M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageMT Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Production risks
ArcelorMittal disclosed the most risks in the 'Production' category, indicating significant operational vulnerabilities.
High Risk
Falling profits
The company faces declining profitability, which negatively impacts its financial outlook.
High Risk
High operational costs
Elevated costs are pressuring margins and creating financial strain.
High Risk
Decarbonization challenges
The transition to greener steel production is risky and could strain resources.
Medium
Market volatility
Steel industry cyclicality exposes the company to demand and price fluctuations.
Lower
Regulatory risks
Global operations subject the company to varying regulatory environments and compliance costs.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MT Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Global market leadership
ArcelorMittal is the world's leading and most innovative steel and mining company, serving customers in 126 countries with a strong industrial footprint.
Innovative steel solutions
The company is redefining steel for the modern world, building smarter steels for people and the planet.
Tariff and pricing advantage
The bull case hinges on protective policies lifting realized selling prices faster than costs rise, including CBAM-related pressures, improving economics per tonne.
Strong workforce culture
ArcelorMittal is family-friendly, values diversity, and empowers its loyal and hardworking workforce, fostering strong community ties.
Bull market production potential
In a bull market for steel, even conservative production estimates (e.g., 100M tons) could translate to significant upside in share price due to reduced share count.
Strategic geographic presence
With operations in over 60 countries and an industrial footprint in 18, ArcelorMittal benefits from a diversified and resilient global presence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MT Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$63.41
52W Range Position
79%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$29.86
+112.4% from the low
52-Week High
$72.50
-12.5% from the high
1 Month
+2.49%
3 Month
+23.34%
YTD
+34.3%
1 Year
+106.7%
3Y CAGR
+32.6%
5Y CAGR
+17.4%
10Y CAGR
+14.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MT vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.5x
vs 15.7x median
-14% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.9%
vs +6.7% median
-42% below peer median
Net Margin
5.1%
vs 5.5% median
-6% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MT MT ArcelorMittal S.A. | $48.3B | 13.5x | +3.9% | 5.1% | Buy | -5.4% |
NUE NUE Nucor Corporation | $55.5B | 16.0x | +6.7% | 6.8% | Buy | -1.7% |
STL STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc. | $36.2B | 15.4x | +11.5% | 7.2% | Buy | -5.9% |
CLF CLF Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. | $7.0B | — | +7.0% | -7.9% | Hold | -0.9% |
RS RS Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. | $20.3B | 20.0x | +5.8% | 5.4% | Hold | -5.8% |
CMC CMC Commercial Metals Company | $8.0B | 11.3x | +3.8% | 5.5% | Buy | +13.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MT Dividend and Capital Return
MT returns 1.4% total yield, led by a 0.87% dividend, raised 6 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 0.5%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
1.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
0.87%
Payout Ratio
13.4%
How MT Splits Its Return
Div 0.87%
Buyback 0.5%
Dividend 0.87%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.55
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
19.4%
5Y Div CAGR
6.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$262M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
761M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.55 | +10.0% | 0.8% | 2.0% |
| 2024 | $0.50 | +33.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% |
| 2023 | $0.37 | +15.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 2022 | $0.32 | +7.7% | 12.3% | 13.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsMT Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 44 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 18 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $60, implying -5.4% from the current price of $63. The bear case scenario is $48 and the bull case is $101.
02What is the MT stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MT is $60 based on 44 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (-5.4% from today), and the low-end target is $60 (-5.4%). The base case model target is $77.
03Is ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock overvalued in 2026?
MT trades at 13.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MT in 2026 are: (1) Production risks — ArcelorMittal disclosed the most risks in the 'Production' category, indicating significant operational vulnerabilities. (2) Falling profits — The company faces declining profitability, which negatively impacts its financial outlook. (3) High operational costs — Elevated costs are pressuring margins and creating financial strain. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ArcelorMittal S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MT will report consensus revenue of $63.7B (+3.9% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.14 (+0.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $65.9B in revenue.
06When does ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) report its next earnings?
ArcelorMittal S.A. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $1.25 and revenue of $17.0B. Over recent quarters, MT has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does ArcelorMittal S.A. generate?
ArcelorMittal S.A. (MT) generated $471M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.8%. MT returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.9% yield) and share repurchases ($262M TTM).