Upside case
Bull case
$36+150.1%
NU would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 25x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 22 covering NU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
7
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$20
+41.4% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $36
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $55.4B
NU price targets
Three scenarios for where NU stock could go
Current
~$14
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $14
Base
$19
Bull
$36
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$19+33.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nu Holdings Ltd.
NU · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Nu Holdings is a digital financial services platform that provides banking, credit, and investment products primarily in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia through its mobile app. It generates revenue primarily from interest income on credit cards and personal loans — which constitute the majority of its earnings — along with interchange fees and subscription services. Its key competitive advantage is its technology-first approach that delivers a superior customer experience at lower costs than traditional banks, creating strong network effects in its core markets.
Market Cap
$55.4B
Net Income TTM
$2.5B
NU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
90%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+11.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.11/$0.12
Revenue
$3.2B/$3.2B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.14/$0.13
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.17/$0.16
Revenue
$4.0B/$3.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.20
Revenue
$4.9B/$4.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.11/$0.12 | -5.1% | $3.2B/$3.2B | +0.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.14/$0.13 | +5.0% | $3.5B/$3.2B | +11.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.17/$0.16 | +6.3% | $4.0B/$3.5B | +13.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.19/$0.20 | -4.9% | $4.9B/$4.6B | +7.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$16.5B
+48.4% YoY
FY2
$19.7B
+19.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.43
-16.4% YoY
FY2
$0.53
+23.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.7B
Next Earnings
May 14, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.20
Expected Revenue
$5.1B
NU beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $9 — implies -37.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NU
36.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+43% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
NU
36.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+171% premium
vs NU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
36.2x
vs
5Y Average
32.8x
+10% premium
Forward PE
16.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-12%
Financial Services
10.5x
+59%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
36.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
+43%
Financial Services
13.4x
+171%
5Y Avg
32.8x
+10%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Financial Services
1.03x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-3%
Financial Services
11.4x
+30%
5Y Avg
10.4x
+43%
Price/FCF
24.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
+17%
Financial Services
10.6x
+134%
5Y Avg
29.9x
-17%
Price/Sales
5.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+59%
Financial Services
2.3x
+121%
5Y Avg
10.7x
-53%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NU | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg NU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.7x | 19.1x-12% | 10.5x+59% | — |
| Trailing PE | 36.2x | 25.2x+43% | 13.4x+171% | 32.8x+10% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.03x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8x | 15.3x | 11.4x+30% | 10.4x+43% |
| Price/FCF | 24.9x | 21.3x+17% | 10.6x+134% | 29.9x-17% |
| Price/Sales | 5.0x | 3.1x+59% | 2.3x+121% | 10.7x-53% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | — |
NU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNU Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
NU generates 24.0% ROE and 3.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.52
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
24.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
26.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$13.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$12.8B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
24.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
4.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageNU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturns
Nucor’s demand for steel is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. A recession or sluggish growth in key end‑use markets such as construction, automotive, and energy can sharply reduce orders, compressing revenue and margins.
High Risk
Global Overcapacity
The steel industry faces excess capacity, especially from China, which can flood the U.S. market with imports. This overcapacity drives prices lower, eroding Nucor’s profitability and pressuring its competitive position.
High Risk
Project Execution Risk
Nucor’s growth strategy relies on new mill construction and downstream expansion. Delays, cost overruns, or technical setbacks in these capital projects could materially reduce earnings and diminish valuation.
Medium
Capital‑Intensive Nature
Steel manufacturing requires significant capital outlays for plant, equipment, and technology. Economic slowdowns can strain cash flows and limit the company’s ability to invest or refinance, impacting long‑term growth.
Medium
Steel Price Volatility
Steel prices fluctuate with raw‑material costs, global demand, and trade policy changes. Volatility can compress Nucor’s revenue and margin profile, especially when input costs rise faster than product prices.
Medium
Tariffs & Trade Policy
U.S. steel tariffs protect domestic prices but are subject to policy shifts. Rollbacks or new trade restrictions create price and supply uncertainty, affecting Nucor’s cost structure and export competitiveness.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Secular Growth from Data Centers
Nucor is positioned to benefit from a data center boom, with capacity projected to more than double between 2024 and 2035. This expansion drives domestic steel demand and supports higher pricing power for the company.
Strategic Diversification into Specialty Products
The company is moving into higher‑margin specialty items such as data center racks and industrial garage doors, stabilizing profitability beyond the cyclical steel market. Capital investments in new mills and data‑center infrastructure are expected to expand margins and diversify revenue streams.
Robust Financial Health and Dividend King Status
Nucor has maintained positive free cash flow for ten consecutive years and a manageable debt‑to‑equity ratio. It has increased its dividend for over 50 years, reinforcing its reputation as a Dividend King and providing steady shareholder returns.
Section 232 Tariffs Boost Domestic Pricing
Recent strengthening of Section 232 tariffs on imported steel has already significantly reduced imports, improving the competitive landscape for domestic producers like Nucor. This policy shift is expected to lift domestic pricing and increase mill utilization.
Sustainable Electric Arc Mini‑Mill Technology
Nucor’s electric arc mini‑mill relies on scrap metal, making it more environmentally sustainable and resilient across market cycles. The company leads in circular steelmaking and has set science‑based net‑zero greenhouse gas targets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.48
52W Range Position
38%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$11.71
+23.7% from the low
52-Week High
$18.98
-23.7% from the high
1 Month
+1.54%
3 Month
-16.78%
YTD
-14.9%
1 Year
+16.4%
3Y CAGR
+34.7%
5Y CAGR
+7.0%
10Y CAGR
+3.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.7x
vs 18.9x median
-11% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+48.4%
vs +24.0% median
+102% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 24.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NU NU Nu Holdings Ltd. | $55.4B | 16.7x | +48.4% | — | Buy | +41.4% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $20.8B | 27.0x | +15.3% | — | Hold | +28.2% |
AFR AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | $21.8B | 60.8x | +24.0% | 7.6% | Buy | +23.2% |
UPS UPST Upstart Holdings, Inc. | $2.7B | 14.5x | +45.2% | — | Buy | +57.5% |
LC LC LendingClub Corporation | $2.0B | 9.8x | +6.8% | — | Buy | +33.4% |
DAV DAVE Dave Inc. | $3.3B | 18.9x | +38.2% | 40.8% | Buy | +25.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsNU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $20, implying +41.4% from the current price of $14.
02What is the NU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NU is $20 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+51.9% from today), and the low-end target is $18 (+27.1%). The base case model target is $19.
03Is Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) stock overvalued in 2026?
NU trades at 16.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NU in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturns — Nucor’s demand for steel is highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. (2) Global Overcapacity — The steel industry faces excess capacity, especially from China, which can flood the U. (3) Project Execution Risk — Nucor’s growth strategy relies on new mill construction and downstream expansion. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nu Holdings Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NU will report consensus revenue of $16.5B (+48.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.43 (-16.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $19.7B in revenue.
06When does Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) report its next earnings?
Nu Holdings Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-14. Consensus expects EPS of $0.20 and revenue of $5.1B. Over recent quarters, NU has beaten EPS estimates 60% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Nu Holdings Ltd. generate?
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) generated $3.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. NU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).