Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing OKLO more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
10 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering OKLO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
10
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$115
+43.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $12.8B
OKLO price targets
Three scenarios for where OKLO stock could go
Current
~$80
Confidence
—
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Oklo Inc.
OKLO · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated Electric
Oklo is a nuclear energy company that designs and develops small-scale fission power plants for commercial energy production. It makes money primarily through power purchase agreements — selling electricity to utilities and industrial customers — and secondarily through nuclear fuel recycling services. The company's key advantage is its proprietary fast reactor technology that can run on recycled nuclear waste, offering a unique solution to both energy generation and waste management challenges.
Market Cap
$12.8B
Revenue TTM
$0
Net Income TTM
-$106M
OKLO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
14%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
—No data
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1164.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.07/$-0.10
Revenue
—/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.18/$-0.11
Revenue
—/—
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.20/$-0.14
Revenue
—/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.27/$-0.18
Revenue
—/—
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.07/$-0.10 | +30.1% | —/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.18/$-0.11 | -64.3% | —/— | — |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.20/$-0.14 | -48.1% | —/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.27/$-0.18 | -50.0% | —/— | — |
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.20
Expected Revenue
—
OKLO beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
OKLO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OKLO
-110.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
538% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
OKLO
-110.6x
vs
Utilities
19.8x
657% discount
vs OKLO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-110.6x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Utilities
17.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-110.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-538%
Utilities
19.8x
-657%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.74x
—
Utilities
1.67x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Utilities
11.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Utilities
2.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Utilities
3.09%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | OKLO | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg OKLO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 17.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -110.6x | 25.2x-538% | 19.8x-657% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.74x | 1.67x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.3x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 2.1x | — |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 3.09% | — |
OKLO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 1 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOKLO Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key regulated earnings and distribution metrics for OKLO are shown below.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$0
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.72
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
—
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-24.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-11.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$788M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$787M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-11.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-24.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
146M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageOKLO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
No Current Revenue
Oklo is a pre-revenue company, meaning its valuation is based on future expectations rather than current financial performance. This lack of revenue has led to significant losses in recent periods.
High Risk
Regulatory Uncertainty
Nuclear projects are subject to stringent approval processes. Delays or unfavorable decisions from regulatory bodies like the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) could significantly impact Oklo's timelines and costs.
High Risk
Execution Challenges
The design, licensing, and construction of nuclear reactors are complex undertakings. The nuclear sector is prone to delays, cost overruns, and technical issues, which Oklo could face.
Medium
Financing and Dilution Risk
Oklo will likely require substantial capital to scale its operations, potentially necessitating the issuance of new shares. This could lead to dilution for existing investors as the company raises capital to cover high build costs.
Medium
Market Volatility and Speculative Nature
Oklo's stock price can be highly volatile, influenced by market sentiment, particularly around AI and clean energy trends. It is considered a speculative investment, which may lead to unpredictable price movements.
Medium
Competition
Oklo competes with other advanced nuclear developers as well as rapidly advancing renewable energy technologies and storage solutions. This competitive landscape could impact Oklo's market share and growth prospects.
Lower
Supply Chain Risks
Risks are associated with accessing high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) and recycled fuels, as well as general supply chain disruptions. These factors could affect Oklo's operational efficiency and cost structure.
Lower
Fuel and Isotope Execution Risks
Potential challenges in executing fuel and isotope-related activities could limit the benefits from long-term nuclear tailwinds. This may hinder Oklo's ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the nuclear sector.
Lower
Valuation Concerns
Some valuation metrics suggest Oklo may be overvalued, with a high forward price-to-sales ratio and a lack of profitability. This could lead to investor skepticism and impact stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OKLO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
AI and Data Center Demand
The increasing demand for power from AI and data centers presents a massive market opportunity for Oklo's technology. The company has secured significant customer pipeline agreements, including with Meta Platforms and Switch, indicating strong future demand.
Advanced Reactor Technology
Oklo's Aurora fast fission reactor technology is seen as a differentiator. It's designed to be more fuel-efficient and produce less waste than conventional reactors, with the potential for safer operation at higher temperatures.
Government Support and Partnerships
Oklo benefits from a favorable federal backdrop, with projects selected for the Department of Energy's Reactor Pilot Program and Fuel Line Pilot Program. Partnerships with entities like Nvidia and Los Alamos National Laboratory for nuclear fuel validation further bolster its prospects.
Financial Position
Oklo holds a substantial amount of cash and has minimal debt, providing a significant runway to fund its operations and development. This strong financial position supports its growth initiatives and operational stability.
Owner-Operator Model
Oklo is pioneering an owner-operator model for its small modular reactors (SMRs), aiming to generate revenue through long-term contracted power sales rather than one-off equipment sales. This approach could lead to more stable cash flows.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OKLO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$79.62
52W Range Position
33%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$24.53
+224.6% from the low
52-Week High
$193.84
-58.9% from the high
1 Month
+63.29%
3 Month
+11.98%
YTD
+2.3%
1 Year
+177.8%
3Y CAGR
+75.1%
5Y CAGR
+40.0%
10Y CAGR
+18.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OKLO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 37.3x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
—
vs +10.0% median
Peer median unavailable
Net Margin
—
vs 9.1% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OKL OKLO Oklo Inc. | $12.8B | — | — | — | Buy | +43.8% |
SMR SMR NuScale Power Corporation | $2.2B | — | -22.2% | -594.6% | Buy | +34.2% |
BWX BWXT BWX Technologies, Inc. | $19.7B | 46.7x | +13.5% | 10.2% | Buy | -2.4% |
NNE NNE Nano Nuclear Energy Inc | $1.5B | — | — | — | Buy | +72.0% |
LTB LTBR Lightbridge Corporation | $371M | — | — | — | — | — |
CEG CEG Constellation Energy Corporation | $100.8B | 27.8x | +10.0% | 9.1% | Buy | +25.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
6 questionsOKLO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Oklo Inc. (OKLO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 10 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $115, implying +43.8% from the current price of $80.
02What is the OKLO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OKLO is $115 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $150 (+88.4% from today), and the low-end target is $82 (+3.0%).
03Is Oklo Inc. (OKLO) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for OKLO is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Oklo Inc. (OKLO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OKLO in 2026 are: (1) No Current Revenue — Oklo is a pre-revenue company, meaning its valuation is based on future expectations rather than current financial performance. (2) Regulatory Uncertainty — Nuclear projects are subject to stringent approval processes. (3) Execution Challenges — The design, licensing, and construction of nuclear reactors are complex undertakings. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05When does Oklo Inc. (OKLO) report its next earnings?
Oklo Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.20. Over recent quarters, OKLO has beaten EPS estimates 14% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Oklo Inc. generate?
Oklo Inc. (OKLO) had a free cash outflow of $572M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. OKLO returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).