Upside case
Bull case
$57+132.5%
ONB would need investors to value it at roughly 22x earnings — about 12x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
22
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 22 covering ONB
Strong Buy
1
Buy
10
Hold
11
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$27
+10.6% vs today
Scenario Range
$18 – $57
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
ONB price targets
Three scenarios for where ONB stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$18
Base
$36
Bull
$57
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$36+45.2%
At 14x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$18-25.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push ONB down roughly 26% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Old National Bancorp
ONB · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
Old National Bancorp is a regional bank holding company that provides traditional banking services to individuals and businesses across Midwestern states. It makes money primarily through net interest income from loans and leases—about 70% of revenue—supplemented by fee-based services like wealth management, treasury services, and card processing. Its competitive advantage lies in its deep regional presence and community-focused banking relationships across its core Midwestern markets.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Net Income TTM
$669M
ONB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.53/$0.51
Revenue
$647M/$696M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.59/$0.56
Revenue
$678M/$696M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.62/$0.59
Revenue
$714M/$706M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.61/$0.60
Revenue
$703M/$706M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.53/$0.51 | +3.9% | $647M/$696M | -7.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.59/$0.56 | +5.0% | $678M/$696M | -2.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.62/$0.59 | +5.1% | $714M/$706M | +1.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.61/$0.60 | +1.7% | $703M/$706M | -0.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+14.5% YoY
FY2
$5.3B
+25.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.34
+36.3% YoY
FY2
$2.60
+11.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$660M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ONB beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ONB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2021
Total disclosed revenue $126M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Wealth Management Services
32.2%
+9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Wealth Management Services is the largest disclosed segment at 32.2% of FY 2021 revenue, up 9.8% YoY.
ONB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $25 — implies +4.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
4.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ONB
13.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
46% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ONB
13.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
In line with benchmark
vs ONB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.7x
vs
5Y Average
11.4x
+21% premium
Forward PE
9.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
-51%
Financial Services
10.5x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-46%
Financial Services
13.4x
+3%
5Y Avg
11.4x
+21%
PEG Ratio
2.43x
S&P 500
1.75x
+39%
Financial Services
1.03x
+137%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
+1%
Financial Services
11.4x
+35%
5Y Avg
13.9x
+11%
Price/FCF
14.9x
S&P 500
21.3x
-30%
Financial Services
10.6x
+40%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+42%
Price/Sales
2.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-18%
Financial Services
2.3x
+14%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+0%
Dividend Yield
2.35%
S&P 500
1.88%
+25%
Financial Services
2.68%
-12%
5Y Avg
3.15%
-25%
| Metric | ONB | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ONB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.4x | 19.1x-51% | 10.5x-10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.7x | 25.2x-46% | 13.4x | 11.4x+21% |
| PEG Ratio | 2.43x | 1.75x+39% | 1.03x+137% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.5x | 15.3x | 11.4x+35% | 13.9x+11% |
| Price/FCF | 14.9x | 21.3x-30% | 10.6x+40% | 10.5x+42% |
| Price/Sales | 2.6x | 3.1x-18% | 2.3x+14% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.35% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.15% |
ONB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolONB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ONB generates 8.5% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.72
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
8.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.8B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$5.6B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.1%
Dividend
2.4%
Buyback
0.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$72M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.58
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
33.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
386M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageONB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Credit Risk Exposure
ONB's credit risk is significantly influenced by its loan portfolio, which includes commercial real estate loans that accounted for 40% of total loans as of December 31, 2022. Economic factors such as inflation and recession can exacerbate these risks, particularly affecting repayment capabilities.
High Risk
Interest Rate Sensitivity
The company's net interest income and margin are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which can compress margins and impact earnings. A significant decline in interest rates could lead to reduced interest income, affecting overall profitability.
High Risk
Merger Integration Risks
Challenges associated with integrating mergers can adversely affect ONB's performance. Additionally, failure to complete a merger may result in negative market reactions, client dissatisfaction, and potential litigation costs.
Medium
Operational Risks
ONB faces operational risks including asset quality pressure, which, despite currently strong credit quality, remains a concern. An efficiency ratio of 46.0% indicates potential challenges in maintaining stable margins and profitability.
Medium
Regulatory Compliance Risks
The company is subject to various compliance, regulatory, and legal risks that could impact its operations and financial performance. Non-compliance could lead to significant penalties and operational disruptions.
Lower
Economic Conditions Impact
Adverse economic conditions, such as recessionary trends and financial market volatility, can increase ONB's credit risks. These factors may lead to higher default rates on loans, impacting overall financial stability.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ONB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Revenue Growth
Old National Bancorp has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 30.60% increase in revenue in 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching $2.30 billion. This significant growth reflects the bank's robust operational performance and market positioning.
Accelerating Earnings Growth
Earnings have also seen substantial growth, increasing by 24.87% in 2025. The company has shown accelerating earnings growth over the past year, exceeding its 5-year average, indicating strong profitability trends.
Record Efficiency Ratio
ONB has achieved a record efficiency ratio of 45.7%, indicating effective cost management. This strong operational efficiency supports the bank's profitability and competitive positioning in the market.
Strategic Growth Initiatives
Strategic initiatives such as the integration of Bremer Bank and acquisitions are contributing to the company's expansion and performance. These efforts are expected to enhance market share and drive future growth.
Strong Analyst Support
A significant majority of Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating on ONB stock. This positive analyst sentiment reflects confidence in the company's growth prospects and overall financial health.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ONB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.58
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.39
+26.8% from the low
52-Week High
$26.17
-6.1% from the high
1 Month
+9.57%
3 Month
-5.03%
YTD
+9.0%
1 Year
+16.5%
3Y CAGR
+25.5%
5Y CAGR
+4.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ONB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.4x
vs 11.4x median
-17% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.5%
vs -2.0% median
+842% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ONB ONB Old National Bancorp | $9.5B | 9.4x | +14.5% | — | Hold | +10.6% |
WTF WTFC Wintrust Financial Corporation | $10.3B | 11.8x | -3.0% | — | Buy | +13.9% |
IBC IBCP Independent Bank Corporation | $696M | 9.5x | -3.2% | — | Hold | +12.4% |
FFI FFIN First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | $4.6B | 16.0x | +15.0% | — | Hold | +20.4% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
FNB FNB F.N.B. Corporation | $6.5B | 10.6x | -2.0% | — | Buy | +12.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ONB Dividend and Capital Return
ONB returns 3.1% total yield, led by a 2.35% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.8%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.8%
Dividend Yield
2.35%
Payout Ratio
33.6%
How ONB Splits Its Return
Div 2.35%
Buyback 0.8%
Dividend 2.35%Buybacks 0.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.58
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
0.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$72M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
386M
At 0.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.56 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 3.4% |
| 2024 | $0.56 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | $0.56 | 0.0% | 0.9% | 4.6% |
| 2022 | $0.56 | 0.0% | 1.4% | 5.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsONB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Old National Bancorp (ONB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Old National Bancorp (ONB) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $27, implying +10.6% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $18 and the bull case is $57.
02What is the ONB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ONB is $27 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $30 (+22.1% from today), and the low-end target is $25 (+1.7%). The base case model target is $36.
03Is Old National Bancorp (ONB) stock overvalued in 2026?
ONB trades at 9.4x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Old National Bancorp (ONB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ONB in 2026 are: (1) Credit Risk Exposure — ONB's credit risk is significantly influenced by its loan portfolio, which includes commercial real estate loans that accounted for 40% of total loans as of December 31, 2022. (2) Interest Rate Sensitivity — The company's net interest income and margin are highly sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, which can compress margins and impact earnings. (3) Merger Integration Risks — Challenges associated with integrating mergers can adversely affect ONB's performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Old National Bancorp's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ONB will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+14.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.34 (+36.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.3B in revenue.
06When does Old National Bancorp (ONB) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ONB is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Old National Bancorp generate?
Old National Bancorp (ONB) generated $660M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ONB returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.4% yield) and share repurchases ($72M TTM).