Upside case
Bull case
$65+507.3%
OWL would need investors to value it at roughly 74x earnings — about 62x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
12 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering OWL
Strong Buy
1
Buy
11
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$16
+46.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $65
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.8B
OWL price targets
Three scenarios for where OWL stock could go
Current
~$11
Confidence
18 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $11
Base
$14
Bull
$65
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$14+30.5%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Blue Owl Capital Inc.
OWL · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
Blue Owl Capital is a specialized asset manager providing permanent capital solutions to middle-market companies, large alternative asset managers, and real estate owners. It generates fees primarily through its three business segments—direct lending (~50% of fee-related earnings), GP capital solutions (~30%), and real estate (~20%)—which offer private credit, minority investments in private equity firms, and sale-leaseback transactions. The company's competitive advantage lies in its permanent capital base—which provides stable, long-term funding—and its holistic platform that creates cross-selling opportunities across its complementary business lines.
Market Cap
$16.8B
Net Income TTM
$87M
OWL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+0.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.21/$0.21
Revenue
$703M/$599M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.22
Revenue
$728M/$675M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.24/$0.22
Revenue
$701M/$712M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.19/$0.19
Revenue
$700M/$687M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.21/$0.21 | +1.6% | $703M/$599M | +17.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22/$0.22 | -0.7% | $728M/$675M | +7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.24/$0.22 | +9.1% | $701M/$712M | -1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.19/$0.19 | +0.0% | $700M/$687M | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.5B
+21.4% YoY
FY2
$4.3B
+23.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.11
-11.7% YoY
FY2
$0.16
+38.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.3B
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.19
Expected Revenue
$686M
OWL beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
OWL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $2.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Asset Management
80.9%
+30.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Asset Management is the largest disclosed segment at 80.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 30.6% YoY.
OWL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $11 — implies +11.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
11.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OWL
89.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+257% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
OWL
89.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+572% premium
vs OWL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
89.6x
vs
5Y Average
125.4x
29% discount
Forward PE
12.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-36%
Financial Services
10.4x
+17%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
89.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
+257%
Financial Services
13.3x
+572%
5Y Avg
125.4x
-29%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Financial Services
1.01x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+33%
Financial Services
11.4x
+77%
5Y Avg
17.6x
+14%
Price/FCF
14.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
-33%
Financial Services
10.6x
+33%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+19%
Price/Sales
5.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+87%
Financial Services
2.2x
+163%
5Y Avg
4.8x
+22%
Dividend Yield
7.65%
S&P 500
1.87%
+310%
Financial Services
2.70%
+184%
5Y Avg
3.12%
+145%
| Metric | OWL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg OWL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.1x | 19.1x-36% | 10.4x+17% | — |
| Trailing PE | 89.6x | 25.1x+257% | 13.3x+572% | 125.4x-29% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.2x | 15.2x+33% | 11.4x+77% | 17.6x+14% |
| Price/FCF | 14.0x | 21.1x-33% | 10.6x+33% | 11.8x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 5.9x | 3.1x+87% | 2.2x+163% | 4.8x+22% |
| Dividend Yield | 7.65% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 3.12% |
OWL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOWL Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
OWL generates 1.4% ROE and 0.7% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.13
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
1.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$195M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
1.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
8.0%
Dividend
7.6%
Buyback
0.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$54M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.82
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
693.4%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageOWL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
Asset Management dependence
Asset Management contributes 80.9% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at 30.6%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
OWL trades at 89.6x trailing earnings versus 25.1x for the S&P 500 and 13.3x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $3.5B in revenue (21.4% growth) and $0.11 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by $1.3B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.3% buyback yield, and a 7.6% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OWL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Blue Owl Capital Inc. already operates from a position of scale, with — gross margin, — operating margin, and $1.3B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Management Service, Incentive still matters
Management Service, Incentive accounts for 0.3% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 96.0%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $16, or 46.8% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches $65. If $3.5B in forward revenue and $0.11 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 8.0% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OWL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$10.75
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$7.96
+35.1% from the low
52-Week High
$21.08
-49.0% from the high
1 Month
+27.22%
3 Month
-7.57%
YTD
-29.8%
1 Year
-41.8%
3Y CAGR
+1.4%
5Y CAGR
+1.5%
10Y CAGR
+0.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OWL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.1x
vs 16.7x median
-27% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.4%
vs +15.0% median
+42% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OWL OWL Blue Owl Capital Inc. | $16.8B | 12.1x | +21.4% | — | Buy | +46.8% |
APO APO Apollo Global Management, Inc. | $74.0B | 14.7x | -17.3% | — | Buy | +20.7% |
ARE ARES Ares Management Corporation | $40.4B | 20.2x | +17.9% | — | Buy | +44.3% |
KKR KKR KKR & Co. Inc. | $90.9B | 16.7x | +4.5% | — | Buy | +40.2% |
CG CG The Carlyle Group Inc. | $18.5B | 11.9x | +28.2% | — | Buy | +31.3% |
BX BX Blackstone Inc. | $96.2B | 20.6x | +15.0% | — | Buy | +27.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OWL Dividend and Capital Return
OWL returns 8.0% total yield, led by a 7.65% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
8.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.3%
Dividend Yield
7.65%
Payout Ratio
6.9%
How OWL Splits Its Return
Div 7.65%
Dividend 7.65%Buybacks 0.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.82
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
25.7%
5Y Div CAGR
-18.4%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$54M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.46 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.85 | +25.7% | 0.5% | 6.0% |
| 2024 | $0.68 | +23.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $0.55 | +27.9% | 0.3% | 3.7% |
| 2022 | $0.43 | +230.8% | 1.7% | 5.7% |
FAQ
7 questionsOWL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $16, implying +46.8% from the current price of $11.
02What is the OWL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OWL is $16 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $27 (+151.2% from today), and the low-end target is $10 (-7.0%). The base case model target is $14.
03Is Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) stock overvalued in 2026?
OWL trades at 12.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OWL in 2026 are: (1) Asset Management dependence — Asset Management contributes 80. (2) Valuation de-rating — OWL trades at 89. (3) Estimate execution — The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $3. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Blue Owl Capital Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OWL will report consensus revenue of $3.5B (+21.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.11 (-11.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.3B in revenue.
06When does Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) report its next earnings?
Blue Owl Capital Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $0.19 and revenue of $686M. Over recent quarters, OWL has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Blue Owl Capital Inc. generate?
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) generated $1.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. OWL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (7.6% yield) and share repurchases ($54M TTM).