Upside case
Bull case
$91+317.1%
PBR would need investors to value it at roughly 24x earnings — about 18x more generous than today's 6x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
22
analysts
11 bullish · 3 bearish · 22 covering PBR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
8
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$19
-14.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$9 – $91
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
22
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
5.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $81.0B
PBR price targets
Three scenarios for where PBR stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $22
Bear
$9
Base
$33
Bull
$91
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$33+52.8%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$9-60.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 4x multiple contraction could push PBR down roughly 61% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
PBR · NYSEEnergyOil & Gas IntegratedDecember year-end
Petrobras is Brazil's state-controlled integrated oil and gas company that explores for, produces, refines, and distributes petroleum products. It generates revenue primarily from upstream oil and gas production (roughly 60% of operating income) and downstream refining and marketing operations (about 30%), with the remainder from gas and power distribution. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Brazil's deepwater pre-salt oil fields—among the world's most productive and lowest-cost reserves—combined with its integrated infrastructure network across the country.
Market Cap
$81.0B
Revenue TTM
$86.4B
Net Income TTM
$14.0B
Net Margin
16.2%
PBR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.92
Revenue
$21.1B/$22.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.70
Revenue
$21.0B/$21.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.82/$0.79
Revenue
$23.5B/$23.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.57
Revenue
$23.6B/$23.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.62/$0.92 | -32.6% | $21.1B/$22.3B | -5.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.70 | -8.6% | $21.0B/$21.3B | -1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.82/$0.79 | +3.8% | $23.5B/$23.6B | -0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.72/$0.57 | +26.3% | $23.6B/$23.1B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$86.1B
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$81.9B
-4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.69
+70.4% YoY
FY2
$3.58
-3.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$16.7B
FCF Margin: 19.4%
Next Earnings
May 11, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.93
Expected Revenue
$26.4B
PBR beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PBR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2019
Total disclosed revenue $46.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Oil Products
100.0%
-24.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Sales Abroad
100.0%
-62.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Oil Products is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2019 revenue, down 24.0% YoY.
Sales Abroad is the largest reported region at 100.0%, down 62.2% YoY.
PBR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $52 — implies +138.6% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
138.6%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PBR
9.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
63% discount
vs Energy Trailing P/E
PBR
9.3x
vs
Energy
17.1x
46% discount
vs PBR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
9.3x
vs
5Y Average
13.3x
30% discount
Forward PE
5.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-70%
Energy
13.9x
-58%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
9.3x
S&P 500
25.1x
-63%
Energy
17.1x
-46%
5Y Avg
13.3x
-30%
PEG Ratio
0.22x
S&P 500
1.72x
-87%
Energy
0.53x
-58%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
3.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
-76%
Energy
8.0x
-55%
5Y Avg
2.4x
+52%
Price/FCF
3.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-84%
Energy
13.8x
-75%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+101%
Price/Sales
0.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
-72%
Energy
1.6x
-46%
5Y Avg
0.6x
+47%
Dividend Yield
26.13%
S&P 500
1.87%
+1299%
Energy
2.73%
+858%
5Y Avg
1.87%
+1300%
| Metric | PBR | S&P 500 | Energy | 5Y Avg PBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 5.8x | 19.1x-70% | 13.9x-58% | — |
| Trailing PE | 9.3x | 25.1x-63% | 17.1x-46% | 13.3x-30% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.22x | 1.72x-87% | 0.53x-58% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.6x | 15.2x-76% | 8.0x-55% | 2.4x+52% |
| Price/FCF | 3.5x | 21.1x-84% | 13.8x-75% | 1.7x+101% |
| Price/Sales | 0.9x | 3.1x-72% | 1.6x-46% | 0.6x+47% |
| Dividend Yield | 26.13% | 1.87% | 2.73% | 1.87% |
PBR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPBR Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PBR generates $16.7B in free cash flow at a 19.4% margin — 15.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 26.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$86.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-11.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
25.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
16.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$16.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
19.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$57.0B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.4× FCF
~3.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
19.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
26.6%
Dividend
26.1%
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$380M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.69
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
243.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.7B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePBR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Bankruptcy Risk
Petrobras’ Altman Z‑Score of 1.27 falls into the distress zone, indicating a heightened probability of bankruptcy within the next two years. This metric signals potential solvency issues that could impair future financing and operational flexibility.
High Risk
Liquidity Constraints
Current ratio of 0.71 and quick ratio of 0.48 reveal limited short‑term liquidity, constraining the company’s ability to cover immediate obligations. Persistent low ratios could force asset sales or higher borrowing costs.
Medium
Revenue & Earnings Decline
Over the past three years, Petrobras’ revenue growth has contracted by 8.4% and earnings growth by 21.7%, reflecting declining top‑line and bottom‑line performance. Continued negative trends could erode shareholder returns.
Medium
Floating‑Rate Debt Risk
A significant portion of Petrobras’ debt is at floating rates, exposing the company to higher interest expenses if rates rise. This could compress margins and reduce cash available for investment.
Medium
Oil & Gas Price Volatility
Fluctuations in oil and gas prices directly impact Petrobras’ revenue and profitability. Sharp price swings could erode earnings, especially given the company’s exposure to upstream production.
Lower
State Control & Capital Allocation
As a state‑controlled entity, Petrobras’ corporate strategy and dividend policy are heavily influenced by the Brazilian government, potentially prioritizing political objectives over shareholder value. Political decisions, particularly during election years, could alter capital allocation.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PBR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Strong Financials and Profitability
Petrobras reports a return on equity exceeding 24%, underscoring effective management. Quarterly revenues hit approximately $23.61 billion, while the net margin stands at 22.01%.
Shareholder Returns
The company declared a special dividend of $0.1191 per share and maintains a dividend payout ratio of 11.51%. Its free‑cash‑flow payout policy is 45%, and the dividend yield approaches 6%.
Operational Strengths
Petrobras benefits from an integrated portfolio and ramping offshore production, especially its high‑quality pre‑salt assets. Dominance in Brazil’s pre‑salt oil fields underpins resilient cash flow and future growth.
Favorable Oil Price Environment
Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical factors and supply concerns, provide a significant tailwind for Petrobras’ earnings and cash‑flow outlook.
Insider Buying
Multiple insiders have purchased shares, reflecting positive insider sentiment and confidence in the company’s prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PBR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.77
52W Range Position
96%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$11.04
+97.2% from the low
52-Week High
$22.24
-2.1% from the high
1 Month
+4.36%
3 Month
+46.11%
YTD
+82.6%
1 Year
+94.4%
3Y CAGR
+26.2%
5Y CAGR
+20.2%
10Y CAGR
+11.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PBR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
5.8x
vs 9.1x median
-36% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-0.3%
vs +3.3% median
-109% below peer median
Net Margin
16.2%
vs 6.7% median
+142% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PBR PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras | $81.0B | 5.8x | -0.3% | 16.2% | Buy | -14.2% |
XOM XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation | $656.4B | 15.6x | +7.0% | 8.9% | Hold | +3.6% |
CVX CVX Chevron Corporation | $384.4B | 15.9x | +10.2% | 6.7% | Buy | -0.9% |
SHE SHEL Shell plc | $253.9B | 9.1x | +3.3% | 6.7% | Buy | +5.5% |
BP BP BP p.l.c. | $121.4B | 9.1x | +2.9% | 1.6% | Hold | -5.6% |
TTE TTE TotalEnergies SE | $208.4B | 8.8x | -2.2% | 8.2% | Buy | -19.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PBR Dividend and Capital Return
PBR returns 26.6% total yield, led by a 26.13% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
26.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
26.13%
Payout Ratio
2.4%
How PBR Splits Its Return
Div 26.13%
Dividend 26.13%Buybacks 0.5%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.69
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
-42.5%
5Y Div CAGR
45.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$380M
Estimated Shares Retired
17M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.7B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.19 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.20 | -55.1% | — | — |
| 2024 | $2.68 | -5.6% | 0.9% | 45.1% |
| 2023 | $2.84 | -55.2% | 1.4% | 40.2% |
| 2022 | $6.34 | +222.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsPBR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 22 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $19, implying -14.2% from the current price of $22. The bear case scenario is $9 and the bull case is $91.
02What is the PBR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PBR is $19 based on 22 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $22 (+1.1% from today), and the low-end target is $15 (-31.1%). The base case model target is $33.
03Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) stock overvalued in 2026?
PBR trades at 5.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PBR in 2026 are: (1) Bankruptcy Risk — Petrobras’ Altman Z‑Score of 1. (2) Liquidity Constraints — Current ratio of 0. (3) Revenue & Earnings Decline — Over the past three years, Petrobras’ revenue growth has contracted by 8. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PBR will report consensus revenue of $86.1B (-0.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.69 (+70.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $81.9B in revenue.
06When does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) report its next earnings?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-11. Consensus expects EPS of $0.93 and revenue of $26.4B. Over recent quarters, PBR has beaten EPS estimates 50% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras generate?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) generated $16.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 19.4%. PBR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (26.1% yield) and share repurchases ($380M TTM).