Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RIVN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
28
analysts
12 bullish · 5 bearish · 28 covering RIVN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
12
Hold
11
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$18
+25.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
28
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $18.1B
RIVN price targets
Three scenarios for where RIVN stock could go
Current
~$15
Confidence
30 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Rivian is an electric vehicle manufacturer that designs and produces premium electric pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans. It generates revenue primarily from direct-to-consumer vehicle sales—with its R1T truck and R1S SUV as core products—and from commercial vehicle sales to partners like Amazon, which holds a significant stake. The company's key advantage lies in its vertically integrated "skateboard" platform—a flexible battery and chassis architecture that enables rapid vehicle development and customization.
Market Cap
$18.1B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
-$3.5B
Net Margin
-63.6%
RIVN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.80/$-0.65
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.70/$-0.74
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.54/$-0.71
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.55/$-0.60
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.80/$-0.65 | -23.7% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.70/$-0.74 | +5.3% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.54/$-0.71 | +23.8% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.55/$-0.60 | +8.3% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.9B
+25.5% YoY
FY2
$9.5B
+36.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.48
+117.2% YoY
FY2
$1.29
+165.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
FCF Margin: -45.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RIVN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RIVN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
71.1%
-14.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 71.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 14.6% YoY.
RIVN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $122 — implies +713.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
713.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RIVN
-4.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
119% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RIVN
-4.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
125% discount
vs RIVN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-4.8x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-4.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-119%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
-125%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+7%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+369%
5Y Avg
5.6x
-40%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RIVN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RIVN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Trailing PE | -4.8x | 25.1x-119% | 19.3x-125% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 0.91x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 11.3x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 14.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.4x | 3.1x | 0.7x+369% | 5.6x-40% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
RIVN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 2 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRIVN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RIVN are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-1.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-68.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-63.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.82
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-45.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-36.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-23.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-69.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-36.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRIVN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
Rivian's production is highly susceptible to disruptions in its supply chain, particularly for semiconductors and critical raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. Significant lead times for these components have exceeded industry standards, which could severely impact production timelines and costs.
High Risk
Production Challenges
Rivian faces significant challenges in scaling production to meet demand for its R1 and R2 models, as well as commercial vans. The company has previously missed production targets due to complex supplier dependencies, which could hinder profitability.
High Risk
Liquidity and Cash Burn
Concerns regarding Rivian's liquidity have been raised, especially given its substantial cash burn rate. While the company ended 2025 with significant cash reserves, managing this burn rate is crucial for sustaining operations and funding future growth.
Medium
Demand Fluctuations
Analysts have expressed concerns about weak demand for Rivian's vehicles, which could limit data collection for autonomous technology development and slow the path to profitability. This demand uncertainty poses a risk to the company's growth trajectory.
Medium
Intense Competition
The electric vehicle market is highly competitive, with established players and new entrants vying for market share. Rivian risks falling behind in technological advancements compared to larger, more established companies, which could impact its market position.
Medium
Profitability Path
Achieving consistent profitability remains a major hurdle for Rivian. Although improvements in gross profit have been noted, the company is still working towards positive automotive gross profit margins, with the R2 launch expected to drive growth by the end of 2026.
Lower
Regulatory and Safety Concerns
Potential regulatory oversight and issues related to passenger safety and driver authentication present risks for Rivian. These factors could lead to increased scrutiny and operational challenges.
Lower
Legal Disputes
Rivian has faced legal challenges, including a lawsuit from Tesla concerning alleged trade secret misappropriation. Such disputes could result in financial liabilities and distract from core business operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RIVN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
R2 Launch and Mass Market Appeal
The recent start of production for the R2 midsize electric SUV is seen as a significant de-risking event and Rivian's 'Model 3 moment.' This model targets the mass market with a projected starting price of around $45,000, aiming to deliver at least 22,000 vehicles in its first year, with deliveries expected to begin in spring 2026.
Strategic Partnerships
Rivian has secured several key partnerships that enhance its financial stability and growth prospects, including a deal with Uber for up to $1.25 billion tied to a robotaxi partnership using the R2. Additionally, the company has a substantial order for over 100,000 delivery vans from Amazon and a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy.
Technological Advancements and Diversification
Rivian is developing its proprietary RAP1 AI chip to reduce reliance on external suppliers like Nvidia, while also rolling out an advanced driver-assistance subscription called Autonomy+. The R2 fleet is being positioned as a data-collection platform for AI development, further diversifying Rivian's offerings.
Improving Financials and Profitability
Rivian achieved its first full year of positive gross profit in 2025 and is targeting positive gross profit margins by the end of 2026. This improvement is driven by the R2's lower production costs and increased plant utilization, with the company ending 2025 with $6.1 billion in cash and expecting an additional $2 billion from Volkswagen in 2026.
Production Capacity and Efficiency
The Normal, Illinois plant has the capacity to produce over 215,000 units annually, supporting the R1, R2, and commercial vans. The R2 is designed for significant material cost reductions, aiming for roughly half the bill of materials of the R1, which enhances overall production efficiency.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RIVN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$14.60
52W Range Position
27%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$11.57
+26.2% from the low
52-Week High
$22.69
-35.7% from the high
1 Month
-4.51%
3 Month
+6.34%
YTD
-24.8%
1 Year
+7.7%
3Y CAGR
+2.9%
5Y CAGR
-32.0%
10Y CAGR
-17.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RIVN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 8.4x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+25.5%
vs +2.8% median
+828% above peer median
Net Margin
-63.6%
vs -3.2% median
-1879% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $18.1B | — | +25.5% | -63.6% | Buy | +25.8% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $2.1B | — | +8.3% | -300.4% | Hold | +124.0% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $45.8B | 7.4x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +19.5% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $68.7B | 6.0x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $20.9B | 9.4x | +2.8% | -6.2% | Hold | +49.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsRIVN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 28 analysts covering the stock, 12 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $18, implying +25.8% from the current price of $15.
02What is the RIVN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RIVN is $18 based on 28 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+71.2% from today), and the low-end target is $12 (-17.8%).
03Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RIVN is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RIVN in 2026 are: (1) Supply Chain Vulnerabilities — Rivian's production is highly susceptible to disruptions in its supply chain, particularly for semiconductors and critical raw materials like lithium, nickel, and cobalt. (2) Production Challenges — Rivian faces significant challenges in scaling production to meet demand for its R1 and R2 models, as well as commercial vans. (3) Liquidity and Cash Burn — Concerns regarding Rivian's liquidity have been raised, especially given its substantial cash burn rate. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RIVN will report consensus revenue of $6.9B (+25.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.48 (+117.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.5B in revenue.
06When does Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RIVN is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Rivian Automotive, Inc. generate?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 45.0%. RIVN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).