Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RIVN more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
13 bullish · 5 bearish · 29 covering RIVN
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
11
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$17
+4.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.4B
RIVN price targets
Three scenarios for where RIVN stock could go
Current
~$17
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rivian Automotive, Inc.
RIVN · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Rivian is an electric vehicle manufacturer that designs and produces premium electric pickup trucks, SUVs, and commercial delivery vans. It generates revenue primarily from direct-to-consumer vehicle sales—with its R1T truck and R1S SUV as core products—and from commercial vehicle sales to partners like Amazon, which holds a significant stake. The company's key advantage lies in its vertically integrated "skateboard" platform—a flexible battery and chassis architecture that enables rapid vehicle development and customization.
Market Cap
$20.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.5B
Net Income TTM
-$3.5B
Net Margin
-63.6%
RIVN Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.80/$-0.65
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$-0.70/$-0.74
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.54/$-0.71
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.55/$-0.63
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.80/$-0.65 | -23.7% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $-0.70/$-0.74 | +5.3% | $1.6B/$1.5B | +3.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.54/$-0.71 | +23.8% | $1.3B/$1.3B | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.55/$-0.63 | +13.0% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +0.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$6.6B
+20.2% YoY
FY2
$8.3B
+24.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-1.24
+55.9% YoY
FY2
$-1.44
-15.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$2.5B
FCF Margin: -45.0%
Next Earnings
August 4, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.66
Expected Revenue
$1.4B
RIVN beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
RIVN Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $5.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
71.1%
-14.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 71.1% of FY 2025 revenue, down 14.6% YoY.
RIVN Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RIVN
-5.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
122% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RIVN
-5.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
125% discount
vs RIVN 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-5.4x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-5.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
-122%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-125%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+23%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+444%
5Y Avg
5.6x
-32%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RIVN | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RIVN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 16.3x | — |
| Trailing PE | -5.4x | 24.4x-122% | 21.2x-125% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 12.2x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 15.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.8x | 3.1x+23% | 0.7x+444% | 5.6x-32% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
RIVN trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRIVN Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RIVN are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-1.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-68.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-63.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-2.82
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$2.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-45.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-36.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-23.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-69.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-36.7%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRIVN Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Demand Weakness
Analysts cite weak demand as a key factor for bearish views on Rivian's stock.
High Risk
Liquidity Strain
Rivian faces risks of liquidity strain, which could impact its financial stability.
Medium
Market Volatility
Rivian's stock has shown significant volatility, with sharp declines and jumps in performance.
Medium
Financial Health
Rivian is still in heavy-build mode, which may strain its financial resources.
Lower
Competitive Pressure
The EV market is highly competitive, which could challenge Rivian's growth prospects.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Analysts project an 18% decline in Rivian's shares by 2026, indicating valuation risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RIVN Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Expanding model lineup
Rivian is broadening its offerings with innovative electric trucks, SUVs, and vans, catering to diverse consumer needs.
Financial discipline improvement
The company is showing better financial management, which enhances its sustainability and growth potential.
Credible Tesla challenger
Rivian is positioning itself as a strong competitor to Tesla in the EV market.
Mid-market potential
Rivian's focus on the mid-market segment offers significant growth opportunities and market penetration.
U.S. manufacturing advantages
The company benefits from domestic production capabilities, which may reduce costs and improve supply chain efficiency.
Volkswagen investment runway
Strategic investment from Volkswagen provides Rivian with financial stability and resources for expansion.
Sustainable future alignment
Rivian's focus on electric vehicles aligns with global trends towards sustainability and clean energy.
Long-range EV capabilities
Rivian's vehicles offer long-range performance, making them attractive for adventure and everyday use.
Innovative vehicle features
The company's vehicles come with advanced features and customizations, enhancing consumer appeal.
Strong stock performance
Rivian's stock has shown significant appreciation, reflecting investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RIVN Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.52
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$11.57
+42.8% from the low
52-Week High
$22.69
-27.2% from the high
1 Month
+23.75%
3 Month
+6.37%
YTD
-14.9%
1 Year
+20.0%
3Y CAGR
+1.7%
5Y CAGR
-30.3%
10Y CAGR
-16.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RIVN vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 8.5x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+20.2%
vs +4.9% median
+311% above peer median
Net Margin
-63.6%
vs -3.2% median
-1879% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $20.4B | — | +20.2% | -63.6% | Buy | +4.7% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $1.8B | — | +16.6% | -300.4% | Hold | +11.9% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $18.4B | 8.6x | +4.9% | -6.2% | Hold | +66.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsRIVN Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $17, implying +4.7% from the current price of $17.
02What is the RIVN stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RIVN is $17 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $23 (+39.2% from today), and the low-end target is $13 (-21.3%).
03Is Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RIVN is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RIVN in 2026 are: (1) Demand Weakness — Analysts cite weak demand as a key factor for bearish views on Rivian's stock. (2) Liquidity Strain — Rivian faces risks of liquidity strain, which could impact its financial stability. (3) Market Volatility — Rivian's stock has shown significant volatility, with sharp declines and jumps in performance. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RIVN will report consensus revenue of $6.6B (+20.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-1.24 (+55.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.3B in revenue.
06When does Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) report its next earnings?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-04. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.66 and revenue of $1.4B. Over recent quarters, RIVN has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rivian Automotive, Inc. generate?
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) had a free cash outflow of $2.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 45.0%. RIVN returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).