Upside case
Bull case
$130-67.6%
The bull case prices TSLA at 69x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
81
analysts
32 bullish · 15 bearish · 81 covering TSLA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
32
Hold
34
Sell
15
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$450
+12.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$62 – $130
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
81
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
212.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.50T
TSLA price targets
Three scenarios for where TSLA stock could go
Current
~$400
Confidence
53 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $400
Bear
$62
Base
$99
Bull
$130
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$99-75.4%
At 52x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$62-84.5%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 179x multiple contraction could push TSLA down roughly 85% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Tesla is an electric vehicle and clean energy company that designs, manufactures, and sells battery-electric vehicles, solar energy systems, and energy storage solutions. It generates most of its revenue from automotive sales—roughly 85%—with the remainder coming from energy generation/storage products and regulatory credit sales. Tesla's key competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated manufacturing, proprietary battery technology, and industry-leading Supercharger network that creates a comprehensive ecosystem.
Market Cap
$1.50T
Revenue TTM
$97.9B
Net Income TTM
$3.9B
Net Margin
4.0%
TSLA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.40
Revenue
$22.5B/$22.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.56
Revenue
$28.1B/$26.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.50/$0.45
Revenue
$24.9B/$24.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.41/$0.35
Revenue
$22.4B/$22.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.40 | +0.7% | $22.5B/$22.3B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.56 | -10.4% | $28.1B/$26.5B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.50/$0.45 | +9.9% | $24.9B/$24.8B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.41/$0.35 | +15.9% | $22.4B/$22.1B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$105.9B
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$116.2B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.75
+59.3% YoY
FY2
$2.19
+25.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.0B
FCF Margin: 7.2%
Next Earnings
July 22, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.45
Expected Revenue
$24.3B
TSLA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TSLA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $94.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
73.3%
-9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
50.2%
-0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 73.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 9.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 50.2%, down 0.2% YoY.
TSLA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $17 — implies -95.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
95.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSLA
370.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+1417% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TSLA
370.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+1653% premium
vs TSLA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
370.8x
vs
5Y Average
96.6x
+284% premium
Forward PE
212.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+1028%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+1199%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
370.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+1417%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+1653%
5Y Avg
96.6x
+284%
PEG Ratio
9.57x
S&P 500
1.66x
+477%
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
+935%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
142.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+836%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+1068%
5Y Avg
43.7x
+226%
Price/FCF
241.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+1067%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
+1453%
5Y Avg
127.7x
+89%
Price/Sales
15.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
+413%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+2171%
5Y Avg
13.5x
+17%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TSLA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TSLA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 212.2x | 18.8x+1028% | 16.3x+1199% | — |
| Trailing PE | 370.8x | 24.4x+1417% | 21.2x+1653% | 96.6x+284% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.57x | 1.66x+477% | 0.92x+935% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 142.3x | 15.2x+836% | 12.2x+1068% | 43.7x+226% |
| Price/FCF | 241.6x | 20.7x+1067% | 15.6x+1453% | 127.7x+89% |
| Price/Sales | 15.8x | 3.1x+413% | 0.7x+2171% | 13.5x+17% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
TSLA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSLA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for TSLA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$97.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$16.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$8.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTSLA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Legal liability risk
A jury ruled against Tesla on Full Self-Driving promises, which is core to the bull thesis, exposing the company to potential billions in settlements.
High Risk
China competition
Increasing competition in China poses a significant threat to Tesla's market share and automotive margins.
Medium
Valuation premium
Tesla's current stock price trades at a premium to the midpoint intrinsic value, indicating limited margin of safety for investors.
Medium
Delivery slowdown
Tesla's delivery slide may extend to a third year, raising concerns about cash burn and operational challenges.
Medium
FSD progress risk
Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13 progress and Robotaxi launch timing remain uncertain, creating execution risk for Tesla's AI-driven growth.
Lower
Diversification appeal
Rising correlations with broader markets may reduce Tesla's risk-adjusted return appeal for investors seeking efficient diversification.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSLA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI and autonomy leadership
Tesla's long-term potential is driven by its advancements in AI, autonomy, and robotics, positioning it as a leader in these transformative technologies.
Integrated energy solutions
Tesla is building a comprehensive ecosystem with electric cars, solar, home batteries, and renewable energy solutions for homes and businesses.
Robotics and Optimus potential
The development of Optimus and other robotics projects could open new revenue streams and solidify Tesla's innovation edge.
Valuation floor support
Analysts highlight a $400 valuation floor for Tesla, supported by its diverse business segments and growth potential.
FSD and Robotaxi future
Full Self-Driving (FSD) and the anticipated Robotaxi service are key catalysts for Tesla's future revenue and market expansion.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSLA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$400.49
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$288.77
+38.7% from the low
52-Week High
$498.83
-19.7% from the high
1 Month
-2.33%
3 Month
+1.96%
YTD
-8.6%
1 Year
+24.4%
3Y CAGR
+13.4%
5Y CAGR
+14.0%
10Y CAGR
+39.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSLA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
212.2x
vs 7.3x median
+2804% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +16.6% median
-51% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs -35.0% median
+111% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $20.4B | — | +20.2% | -63.6% | Buy | +4.7% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $1.8B | — | +16.6% | -300.4% | Hold | +11.9% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $11.8B | — | +22.5% | -35.0% | Buy | +30.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsTSLA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 81 analysts covering the stock, 32 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 15 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $450, implying +12.5% from the current price of $400. The bear case scenario is $62 and the bull case is $130.
02What is the TSLA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSLA is $450 based on 81 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $548 (+36.8% from today), and the low-end target is $360 (-10.1%). The base case model target is $99.
03Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSLA trades at 212.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSLA in 2026 are: (1) Legal liability risk — A jury ruled against Tesla on Full Self-Driving promises, which is core to the bull thesis, exposing the company to potential billions in settlements. (2) China competition — Increasing competition in China poses a significant threat to Tesla's market share and automotive margins. (3) Valuation premium — Tesla's current stock price trades at a premium to the midpoint intrinsic value, indicating limited margin of safety for investors. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tesla, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSLA will report consensus revenue of $105.9B (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.75 (+59.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $116.2B in revenue.
06When does Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) report its next earnings?
Tesla, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-22. Consensus expects EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $24.3B. Over recent quarters, TSLA has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Tesla, Inc. generate?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) generated $7.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.2%. TSLA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).