Upside case
Bull case
$735+88.9%
TSLA would need investors to value it at roughly 380x earnings — about 179x more generous than today's 201x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
81
analysts
31 bullish · 16 bearish · 81 covering TSLA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
31
Hold
34
Sell
16
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$450
+15.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $735
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
81
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
201.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $1.46T
TSLA price targets
Three scenarios for where TSLA stock could go
Current
~$389
Confidence
60 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $389
Base
$159
Bull
$735
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$159-59.1%
At 82x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Tesla, Inc.
TSLA · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Tesla is an electric vehicle and clean energy company that designs, manufactures, and sells battery-electric vehicles, solar energy systems, and energy storage solutions. It generates most of its revenue from automotive sales—roughly 85%—with the remainder coming from energy generation/storage products and regulatory credit sales. Tesla's key competitive advantage lies in its vertically integrated manufacturing, proprietary battery technology, and industry-leading Supercharger network that creates a comprehensive ecosystem.
Market Cap
$1.46T
Revenue TTM
$97.9B
Net Income TTM
$3.9B
Net Margin
4.0%
TSLA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-2.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.40/$0.40
Revenue
$22.5B/$22.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.56
Revenue
$28.1B/$26.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.50/$0.45
Revenue
$24.9B/$24.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.41/$0.35
Revenue
$22.4B/$22.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.40/$0.40 | +0.7% | $22.5B/$22.3B | +1.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.56 | -10.4% | $28.1B/$26.5B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.50/$0.45 | +9.9% | $24.9B/$24.8B | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.41/$0.35 | +15.9% | $22.4B/$22.1B | +1.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$102.8B
+5.0% YoY
FY2
$113.1B
+10.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.71
+56.2% YoY
FY2
$1.99
+16.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$7.0B
FCF Margin: 7.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TSLA beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
TSLA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $94.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Automotive
73.3%
-9.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
50.2%
-0.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Automotive is the largest disclosed segment at 73.3% of FY 2025 revenue, down 9.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 50.2%, down 0.2% YoY.
TSLA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $151 — implies -61.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
61.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSLA
360.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+1336% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
TSLA
360.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+1770% premium
vs TSLA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
360.5x
vs
5Y Average
96.6x
+273% premium
Forward PE
201.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+955%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+1232%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
360.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+1336%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+1770%
5Y Avg
96.6x
+273%
PEG Ratio
9.30x
S&P 500
1.72x
+442%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+921%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
138.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+809%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+1121%
5Y Avg
43.7x
+217%
Price/FCF
234.9x
S&P 500
21.1x
+1014%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+1507%
5Y Avg
127.7x
+84%
Price/Sales
15.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+393%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+2053%
5Y Avg
13.5x
+14%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TSLA | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg TSLA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 201.3x | 19.1x+955% | 15.1x+1232% | — |
| Trailing PE | 360.5x | 25.1x+1336% | 19.3x+1770% | 96.6x+273% |
| PEG Ratio | 9.30x | 1.72x+442% | 0.91x+921% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 138.3x | 15.2x+809% | 11.3x+1121% | 43.7x+217% |
| Price/FCF | 234.9x | 21.1x+1014% | 14.6x+1507% | 127.7x+84% |
| Price/Sales | 15.4x | 3.1x+393% | 0.7x+2053% | 13.5x+14% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 2.23% | — |
TSLA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSLA Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
Key financial metrics for TSLA are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$97.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
19.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
5.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.10
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$7.0B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
7.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$16.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$8.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
3.8B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTSLA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation Pressure
Analysts warn that Tesla’s valuation is extremely high, with JPMorgan’s $145 target implying a potential 60% drop and HSBC forecasting a 63% decline. Such a steep correction would erode market confidence and could trigger a sharp sell‑off.
High Risk
Cash Burn & Funding
Tesla faces significant cash burn from unfunded capital expenditures tied to its AI Pivot. If the company cannot secure additional capital, it may need to issue dilutive equity or debt in the latter half of 2026, impacting shareholder value.
Medium
Revenue Decline
Q4 2025 automotive revenue fell 11% year‑over‑year, reflecting a broader decline in vehicle deliveries. Continued revenue contraction could pressure earnings and cash flow.
Medium
Margin Erosion
Tesla is experiencing sustained declines in gross margins as the market shifts from growth to cyclical auto. Multiple compression and lower‑priced models are compressing profitability.
Medium
Competitive Pressure
Chinese EV makers such as BYD are gaining market share with lower‑priced models, intensifying competition. This could erode Tesla’s market share and pressure pricing power.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSLA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Autonomous Driving & Robotaxis
Tesla’s Full Self‑Driving system has amassed nearly 10 billion miles of training data, giving it a significant edge in AI model accuracy. Analysts view the launch of a robotaxi fleet as a major catalyst that could unlock new revenue streams and scale the company’s autonomous capabilities.
Robotics & AI – Optimus
Elon Musk’s vision extends beyond EVs to humanoid robots like Optimus. The development of Optimus is seen as a substantial future growth area, potentially opening a new product line that leverages Tesla’s AI and manufacturing expertise.
Charging Network Moat
Tesla’s extensive charging infrastructure provides a competitive moat, offering convenience and network effects that differentiate it from rivals. The established network supports vehicle adoption and can generate ancillary revenue through charging fees.
Energy Generation & Storage Growth
Tesla’s energy segment has shown impressive year‑over‑year revenue increases and record gross profit, contributing positively to overall profitability. This growth underscores the company’s diversification beyond automotive sales.
New Budget EV Opportunity
Reports indicate Tesla is developing a smaller, lower‑cost compact electric vehicle. This new model could tap into broader market segments, driving future sales and expanding the company’s customer base.
Musk Premium Floor
Despite valuation concerns, some analysts believe a “Musk premium” continues to support the stock’s price, acting as a floor for its volatility. This premium reflects investor confidence in Musk’s leadership and the company’s long‑term vision.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSLA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$389.30
52W Range Position
52%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$271.00
+43.7% from the low
52-Week High
$498.83
-22.0% from the high
1 Month
+10.34%
3 Month
-1.99%
YTD
-11.1%
1 Year
+38.9%
3Y CAGR
+31.8%
5Y CAGR
+11.7%
10Y CAGR
+39.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSLA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
201.3x
vs 6.7x median
+2895% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.0%
vs +8.3% median
-40% below peer median
Net Margin
4.0%
vs -35.0% median
+111% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $68.7B | 6.0x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $45.8B | 7.4x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +19.5% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $18.1B | — | +25.5% | -63.6% | Buy | +25.8% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $2.1B | — | +8.3% | -300.4% | Hold | +124.0% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $12.3B | — | +45.7% | -35.0% | Buy | +9.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsTSLA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 81 analysts covering the stock, 31 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 34 rate it Hold, and 16 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $450, implying +15.7% from the current price of $389.
02What is the TSLA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSLA is $450 based on 81 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $548 (+40.8% from today), and the low-end target is $360 (-7.5%). The base case model target is $159.
03Is Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSLA trades at 201.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSLA in 2026 are: (1) Valuation Pressure — Analysts warn that Tesla’s valuation is extremely high, with JPMorgan’s $145 target implying a potential 60% drop and HSBC forecasting a 63% decline. (2) Cash Burn & Funding — Tesla faces significant cash burn from unfunded capital expenditures tied to its AI Pivot. (3) Revenue Decline — Q4 2025 automotive revenue fell 11% year‑over‑year, reflecting a broader decline in vehicle deliveries. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Tesla, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSLA will report consensus revenue of $102.8B (+5.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.71 (+56.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $113.1B in revenue.
06When does Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TSLA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Tesla, Inc. generate?
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) generated $7.0B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 7.2%. TSLA returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).