Upside case
Bull case
$94-31.6%
The bull case prices ROKU at 38x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Roku, Inc. (ROKU) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
45
analysts
25 bullish · 1 bearish · 45 covering ROKU
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
19
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$154
+11.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$45 – $94
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
45
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
55.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $20.4B
ROKU price targets
Three scenarios for where ROKU stock could go
Current
~$138
Confidence
68 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $138
Bear
$45
Base
$72
Bull
$94
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$72-48.1%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$45-67.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 38x multiple contraction could push ROKU down roughly 67% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Roku, Inc.
ROKU · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Roku operates a leading TV streaming platform that connects viewers with content through its operating system and streaming devices. It makes money primarily through digital advertising on its platform (roughly 85% of revenue) and selling streaming hardware players and licensed TVs (about 15%). Its key advantage is its massive installed base of active accounts and its neutral platform position—unlike competitors tied to specific content ecosystems—which creates a powerful advertising network and distribution channel.
Market Cap
$20.4B
Revenue TTM
$5.0B
Net Income TTM
$201M
Net Margin
4.1%
ROKU Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+58.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.07/$-0.16
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.16/$0.07
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.4B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.28
Revenue
$1.4B/$1.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.33
Revenue
$1.2B/$1.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.07/$-0.16 | +143.8% | $1.1B/$1.2B | -7.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.16/$0.07 | +128.6% | $1.2B/$1.4B | -10.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.53/$0.28 | +89.3% | $1.4B/$1.4B | +3.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.33 | +72.6% | $1.2B/$1.2B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.6B
+12.0% YoY
FY2
$6.1B
+10.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.43
+7.1% YoY
FY2
$1.59
+11.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$653M
FCF Margin: 13.1%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.61
Expected Revenue
$1.3B
ROKU beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ROKU Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Platform Segment
100.0%
+17.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Platform Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 17.7% YoY.
ROKU Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $41 — implies -70.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
70.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ROKU
234.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+857% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
ROKU
234.0x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+1430% premium
vs ROKU 5Y Avg P/E
Today
234.0x
vs
5Y Average
158.7x
+47% premium
Forward PE
55.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
+197%
Communication Services
11.3x
+393%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
234.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+857%
Communication Services
15.3x
+1430%
5Y Avg
158.7x
+47%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Communication Services
0.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
58.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+286%
Communication Services
9.6x
+511%
5Y Avg
66.1x
-11%
Price/FCF
42.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
+106%
Communication Services
11.4x
+274%
5Y Avg
82.9x
-49%
Price/Sales
4.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+39%
Communication Services
1.0x
+322%
5Y Avg
4.7x
-8%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | ROKU | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg ROKU |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 55.8x | 18.8x+197% | 11.3x+393% | — |
| Trailing PE | 234.0x | 24.4x+857% | 15.3x+1430% | 158.7x+47% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 58.7x | 15.2x+286% | 9.6x+511% | 66.1x-11% |
| Price/FCF | 42.6x | 20.7x+106% | 11.4x+274% | 82.9x-49% |
| Price/Sales | 4.3x | 3.1x+39% | 1.0x+322% | 4.7x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
ROKU trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolROKU Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
ROKU generates $653M in free cash flow at a 13.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+16.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
44.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
2.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
4.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.33
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$653M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-0.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.6B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$715M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.6%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-0.3%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$150M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
148M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageROKU Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
The bear scenario includes potential valuation de-rating as the stock digests its massive gains and struggles to justify its premium.
Medium
Revenue growth uncertainty
Analysts highlight concerns about revenue growth trends and competitive positioning in the Communication Services sector.
Medium
Profit margin pressure
Profit margins are a key consideration, with potential pressure from rising costs or competitive pricing.
Lower
Market sentiment volatility
The stock's outlook is bifurcated between bull and bear scenarios, leading to potential volatility in market sentiment.
High Risk
Strategic execution risk
Roku faces high execution risk in maintaining its strategic value and growth trajectory amid competition.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ROKU Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Platform revenue growth
The company is experiencing accelerating Platform revenue growth, driven by its expanding advertising and subscription ecosystem.
Improving profitability trajectory
Roku's profitability trajectory is improving, supported by its growing monetization strategies and operational efficiencies.
Expanding advertising ecosystem
The company is broadening its advertising ecosystem, which is a key driver for revenue and market share expansion.
Strong product portfolio
Roku offers a diverse range of streaming players, smart TVs, and smart home products, enhancing its market presence and consumer appeal.
Innovative user experience
Roku is innovating in user experience with features like voice search, private listening, and advanced streaming capabilities, driving customer engagement.
Monetization strategies
The company is implementing effective monetization strategies, including advertising and subscription services, to sustain growth.
Strong Q1 performance
Roku's strong Q1 performance underscores its ability to execute on growth initiatives and maintain a competitive edge.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ROKU Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$138.07
52W Range Position
85%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.64
+77.8% from the low
52-Week High
$148.88
-7.3% from the high
1 Month
+11.24%
3 Month
+44.33%
YTD
+27.0%
1 Year
+69.6%
3Y CAGR
+26.7%
5Y CAGR
-17.8%
10Y CAGR
+19.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ROKU vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
55.8x
vs 17.7x median
+215% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+12.0%
vs +12.2% median
-1% below peer median
Net Margin
4.1%
vs 5.7% median
-29% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ROK ROKU Roku, Inc. | $20.4B | 55.8x | +12.0% | 4.1% | Buy | +11.2% |
FUB FUBO fuboTV Inc. | $271M | — | +14.3% | 5.7% | Hold | +323.0% |
SST SSTI SoundThinking, Inc. | $102M | — | +13.0% | -14.9% | Buy | +27.6% |
MGN MGNI Magnite, Inc. | $2.6B | 16.8x | +7.8% | 22.0% | Buy | +7.6% |
PUB PUBM PubMatic, Inc. | $528M | — | +6.6% | -6.2% | Buy | +19.5% |
TTD TTD The Trade Desk, Inc. | $8.7B | 18.6x | +12.2% | 14.6% | Buy | +59.1% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ROKU Dividend and Capital Return
ROKU returns 0.7% annually — null% through dividends and 0.7% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.7%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$150M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
148M
At 0.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsROKU Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Roku, Inc. (ROKU) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Roku, Inc. (ROKU) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 45 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 19 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $154, implying +11.2% from the current price of $138. The bear case scenario is $45 and the bull case is $94.
02What is the ROKU stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ROKU is $154 based on 45 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $185 (+34.0% from today), and the low-end target is $100 (-27.6%). The base case model target is $72.
03Is Roku, Inc. (ROKU) stock overvalued in 2026?
ROKU trades at 55.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Roku, Inc. (ROKU) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ROKU in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — The bear scenario includes potential valuation de-rating as the stock digests its massive gains and struggles to justify its premium. (2) Strategic execution risk — Roku faces high execution risk in maintaining its strategic value and growth trajectory amid competition. (3) Revenue growth uncertainty — Analysts highlight concerns about revenue growth trends and competitive positioning in the Communication Services sector. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Roku, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ROKU will report consensus revenue of $5.6B (+12.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.43 (+7.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.1B in revenue.
06When does Roku, Inc. (ROKU) report its next earnings?
Roku, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.61 and revenue of $1.3B. Over recent quarters, ROKU has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Roku, Inc. generate?
Roku, Inc. (ROKU) generated $653M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.1%. ROKU returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($150M TTM).