Upside case
Bull case
$371+253.6%
SBUX would need investors to value it at roughly 157x earnings — about 112x more generous than today's 44x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
59
analysts
27 bullish · 3 bearish · 59 covering SBUX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
29
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$108
+3.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$91 – $371
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
59
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
44.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $119.6B
SBUX price targets
Three scenarios for where SBUX stock could go
Current
~$105
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $105
Bear
$91
Base
$156
Bull
$371
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$156+48.7%
At 66x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$91-12.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push SBUX down roughly 13% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Starbucks Corporation
SBUX · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalRestaurantsSeptember year-end
Starbucks is a global coffeehouse chain that operates and licenses retail stores selling handcrafted coffee beverages, tea, food items, and packaged goods. It generates revenue primarily from company-operated stores (roughly 80% of total) and licensing fees from franchise stores, with additional income from packaged coffee sales in grocery channels. Its competitive advantage lies in its powerful global brand, premium customer experience, and massive scale—with over 35,000 stores worldwide creating significant purchasing power and real estate advantages.
Market Cap
$119.6B
Revenue TTM
$37.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.4B
Net Margin
3.6%
SBUX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-4.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.65
Revenue
$9.5B/$9.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.56
Revenue
$9.6B/$9.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.59
Revenue
$9.9B/$9.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.50/$0.43
Revenue
$9.5B/$9.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.50/$0.65 | -22.7% | $9.5B/$9.3B | +1.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.52/$0.56 | -6.5% | $9.6B/$9.3B | +2.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.59 | -4.4% | $9.9B/$9.7B | +2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.50/$0.43 | +17.6% | $9.5B/$9.2B | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.7B
+2.6% YoY
FY2
$40.4B
+4.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.02
+68.5% YoY
FY2
$2.42
+20.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.3B
FCF Margin: 6.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SBUX beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SBUX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $37.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Beverage Member
60.6%
+3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
72.9%
+1.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Beverage Member is the largest disclosed segment at 60.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 72.9%, up 1.6% YoY.
SBUX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $91 — implies -14.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
14.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SBUX
64.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+156% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
SBUX
64.4x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+234% premium
vs SBUX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
64.4x
vs
5Y Average
33.4x
+93% premium
Forward PE
44.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+132%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+193%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
64.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+156%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+234%
5Y Avg
33.4x
+93%
PEG Ratio
4.13x
S&P 500
1.72x
+141%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+353%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+78%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+140%
5Y Avg
20.2x
+34%
Price/FCF
49.0x
S&P 500
21.1x
+132%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+235%
5Y Avg
33.6x
+46%
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+350%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+0%
Dividend Yield
2.32%
S&P 500
1.87%
+24%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
+4%
5Y Avg
2.30%
+1%
| Metric | SBUX | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg SBUX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 44.3x | 19.1x+132% | 15.1x+193% | — |
| Trailing PE | 64.4x | 25.1x+156% | 19.3x+234% | 33.4x+93% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.13x | 1.72x+141% | 0.91x+353% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.2x | 15.2x+78% | 11.3x+140% | 20.2x+34% |
| Price/FCF | 49.0x | 21.1x+132% | 14.6x+235% | 33.6x+46% |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 0.7x+350% | 3.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 2.32% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 2.30% |
SBUX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSBUX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SBUX 17.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage — returns 2.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$37.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.20
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
6.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$3.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$23.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
10.0× FCF
~10.0 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
2.3%
Dividend
2.3%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.43
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
149.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSBUX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic & Market Conditions
Starbucks’ revenue and margins are highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. A downturn can reduce consumer discretionary spending, while inflation and rising operating costs—including labor and rent—compress profit margins. Commodity price swings, especially in coffee beans, further threaten cost‑control efforts.
High Risk
Operational & Financial Challenges
The company faces margin erosion from rising costs and heavy investment, with a 38x forward P/E indicating premium valuation amid unresolved issues. Negative shareholders’ equity and concerns over dividend cover raise questions about financial stability and long‑term sustainability.
Medium
Labor Issues & Unionization
Frequent labor disputes, walkouts, and a federal complaint in its largest market have disrupted operations and damaged brand perception. Unionization efforts could increase labor costs and create additional balance sheet risks.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Starbucks competes with established chains, third‑wave specialty coffee shops, and fast‑service entrants like Dutch Bros. These competitors threaten market share and pressure margins, especially in high‑density urban markets.
Medium
International & Emerging Markets
Geopolitical instability, currency fluctuations, and economic slowdown in key markets such as China—where average ticket prices are falling—expose the company to revenue volatility. Boycotts in the Middle East have also impacted brand presence.
Lower
Retail Dynamics & Consumer Shift
The rise of e‑commerce and changing consumer habits could reduce foot traffic to physical stores, impacting sales. Adapting to evolving retail channels is essential to maintain growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SBUX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Turnaround Plan Boosts Margins
Starbucks’ "Back to Starbucks" plan introduces performance‑linked barista bonuses and expanded tipping options, aiming to improve in‑store experience and productivity. If successful, the initiative could translate into healthier profit margins over time.
Aggressive Store Expansion Drives Growth
The company plans to open approximately 630 new stores in fiscal year 2026, with further expansion anticipated in FY26 and beyond, supported by international license openings. Positive same‑store sales increases in North America and internationally, especially in China, are expected to accelerate unit growth.
Supply‑Chain Hub Enhances Efficiency
Starbucks is investing in logistics and operational efficiency, evidenced by the opening of a new North American supply‑chain hub in Nashville. The hub is designed to streamline operations and support the company’s expansion plans.
Robust Revenue Growth Outlook
Starbucks reported a revenue increase of 5.5% year‑over‑year, indicating robust demand. Analysts project revenue growth of 7% to 10% for the current year, and the company’s FY2026 EPS guidance suggests positive future earnings potential.
Consistent Dividend Growth
Starbucks offers a dividend yield of around 2.49%, and its dividends have been increasing for 16 consecutive years, underscoring the company’s commitment to shareholder returns.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SBUX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$104.94
52W Range Position
91%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$77.99
+34.6% from the low
52-Week High
$107.52
-2.4% from the high
1 Month
+10.72%
3 Month
+9.23%
YTD
+25.0%
1 Year
+28.5%
3Y CAGR
-0.7%
5Y CAGR
-1.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SBUX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
44.3x
vs 20.1x median
+120% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.6%
vs +7.0% median
-62% below peer median
Net Margin
3.6%
vs 11.9% median
-69% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SBU SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $119.6B | 44.3x | +2.6% | 3.6% | Hold | +3.3% |
MCD MCD McDonald's Corporation | $203.1B | 21.6x | +7.0% | 32.0% | Buy | +23.5% |
QSR QSR Restaurant Brands International Inc. | $26.8B | 20.1x | +10.7% | 10.0% | Buy | +2.5% |
YUM YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. | $42.5B | 22.8x | +7.8% | 20.5% | Hold | +13.3% |
DPZ DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. | $11.2B | 17.2x | +4.6% | 11.9% | Buy | +28.7% |
WEN WEN The Wendy's Company | $1.3B | 11.5x | +1.9% | 8.4% | Hold | +16.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SBUX Dividend and Capital Return
SBUX returns 2.3% total yield, led by a 2.32% dividend, raised 16 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
2.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
2.32%
Payout Ratio
1.5%
How SBUX Splits Its Return
Div 2.32%
Dividend 2.32%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.43
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
16Y
3Y Div CAGR
7.0%
5Y Div CAGR
7.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.1B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.24 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.45 | +5.6% | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| 2024 | $2.32 | +7.4% | 1.1% | 3.5% |
| 2023 | $2.16 | +8.0% | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| 2022 | $2.00 | +8.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% |
FAQ
7 questionsSBUX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 59 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 29 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $108, implying +3.3% from the current price of $105. The bear case scenario is $91 and the bull case is $371.
02What is the SBUX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SBUX is $108 based on 59 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $120 (+14.4% from today), and the low-end target is $90 (-14.2%). The base case model target is $156.
03Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) stock overvalued in 2026?
SBUX trades at 44.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SBUX in 2026 are: (1) Economic & Market Conditions — Starbucks’ revenue and margins are highly sensitive to macroeconomic cycles. (2) Operational & Financial Challenges — The company faces margin erosion from rising costs and heavy investment, with a 38x forward P/E indicating premium valuation amid unresolved issues. (3) Labor Issues & Unionization — Frequent labor disputes, walkouts, and a federal complaint in its largest market have disrupted operations and damaged brand perception. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Starbucks Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SBUX will report consensus revenue of $38.7B (+2.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.02 (+68.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.4B in revenue.
06When does Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SBUX is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Starbucks Corporation generate?
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) generated $2.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 6.2%. SBUX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.3% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).