Upside case
Bull case
$79+70.4%
PYPL would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
70
analysts
27 bullish · 4 bearish · 70 covering PYPL
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
39
Sell
4
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$52
+11.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$38 – $79
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
70
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $42.8B
PYPL price targets
Three scenarios for where PYPL stock could go
Current
~$46
Confidence
83 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $46
Bear
$38
Base
$50
Bull
$79
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$50+8.3%
This is close to how the market is already pricing PYPL — at roughly 9x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$38-19.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push PYPL down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
PYPL · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
PayPal operates a global digital payments platform that enables online money transfers and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods like checks and money orders. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees — taking a percentage of each payment processed — with additional income from value-added services like PayPal Credit and merchant solutions. Its competitive advantage lies in its massive two-sided network of over 400 million active accounts and merchants, creating powerful network effects that make it difficult for competitors to displace.
Market Cap
$42.8B
Net Income TTM
$5.1B
PYPL Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.40/$1.30
Revenue
$8.3B/$8.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.34/$1.20
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.23/$1.29
Revenue
$8.7B/$8.8B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.22/$1.27
Revenue
$8.4B/$8.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.40/$1.30 | +7.7% | $8.3B/$8.1B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.34/$1.20 | +11.7% | $8.4B/$8.2B | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.23/$1.29 | -4.7% | $8.7B/$8.8B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.22/$1.27 | -3.9% | $8.4B/$8.0B | +3.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$34.4B
+3.2% YoY
FY2
$36.1B
+4.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.33
-4.3% YoY
FY2
$5.86
+9.9% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$5.5B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
PYPL beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PYPL Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $33.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction Revenue
89.8%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
56.9%
+3.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transaction Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 89.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 3.3% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 56.9%, up 3.3% YoY.
PYPL Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $126 — implies +149.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
149.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PYPL
8.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
66% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
PYPL
8.6x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
36% discount
vs PYPL 5Y Avg P/E
Today
8.6x
vs
5Y Average
27.2x
68% discount
Forward PE
8.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-54%
Financial Services
10.4x
-16%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
8.6x
S&P 500
25.1x
-66%
Financial Services
13.3x
-36%
5Y Avg
27.2x
-68%
PEG Ratio
0.97x
S&P 500
1.72x
-43%
Financial Services
1.01x
-4%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-58%
Financial Services
11.4x
-44%
5Y Avg
18.3x
-65%
Price/FCF
7.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
-64%
Financial Services
10.6x
-27%
5Y Avg
20.3x
-62%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-59%
Financial Services
2.2x
-42%
5Y Avg
3.7x
-65%
Dividend Yield
0.29%
S&P 500
1.87%
-85%
Financial Services
2.70%
-89%
5Y Avg
0.23%
+26%
| Metric | PYPL | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg PYPL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.8x | 19.1x-54% | 10.4x-16% | — |
| Trailing PE | 8.6x | 25.1x-66% | 13.3x-36% | 27.2x-68% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.97x | 1.72x-43% | 1.01x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 15.2x-58% | 11.4x-44% | 18.3x-65% |
| Price/FCF | 7.7x | 21.1x-64% | 10.6x-27% | 20.3x-62% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-59% | 2.2x-42% | 3.7x-65% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.29% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 0.23% |
PYPL trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPYPL Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
PYPL generates 25.1% ROE and 6.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.50
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
25.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
6.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$8.0B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.9B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
25.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
14.4%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
14.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$6.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
2.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
920M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pagePYPL Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Legal & Regulatory Compliance
PayPal operates in a highly regulated payments industry and must comply with evolving anti‑money laundering, digital services, and payment rules. Failure to meet these requirements could materially harm its business and expose it to fines or operational restrictions.
High Risk
Securities Fraud Litigation
The company faces a wave of securities fraud class‑action lawsuits alleging it misled investors about growth prospects, salesforce capabilities, and branded checkout performance. These suits could divert management attention, increase scrutiny, and result in significant legal costs or settlements.
Medium
Competitive Market Share Loss
PayPal competes with established players and emerging digital wallets such as Apple Pay. Concerns exist that its core branded checkout product is losing market share, potentially eroding transaction volumes and revenue growth.
Medium
Operational & Execution Challenges
The firm has reported operational and deployment issues across regions and allegations that its salesforce was inadequately equipped to execute growth targets. This raises doubts about its ability to roll out new initiatives and maintain customer engagement.
Lower
Declining Transaction Margins
PayPal’s guidance indicates expected declines in transaction margins and adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2026, signaling potential pressure on profitability as fee structures and competition intensify.
Lower
Macroeconomic Headwinds
A deceleration in consumer spending due to macroeconomic factors poses a near‑term threat to PayPal’s business, potentially reducing transaction volumes and revenue growth.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PYPL Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Profitability‑Focused Strategic Pivot
PayPal has moved from a growth‑at‑all‑costs model to disciplined growth, prioritizing higher‑margin businesses such as Braintree, Venmo, and cross‑border commerce. The shift also enhances merchant services with fraud prevention and Buy‑Now‑Pay‑Later options, positioning the company for sustainable margin expansion.
Aggressive Share Buybacks Supporting Upside
In 2024, PayPal repurchased roughly 9% of its outstanding shares, signaling management’s conviction that the stock is undervalued. These buybacks provide downside support and amplify upside potential.
Significant Undervaluation Relative to Peers
Valuation models indicate intrinsic value discounts of 59.4% to 62.5% versus current price, and PayPal’s P/E ratio sits below industry averages, underscoring a compelling discount.
Ecosystem Expansion Fueling Growth
Venmo’s continued expansion, along with Braintree and Fastlane omnichannel solutions, positions PayPal to capture e‑commerce and social commerce momentum. New offerings such as crypto trading tools, high‑yield savings accounts, and stablecoin‑driven cross‑border transfers broaden revenue streams.
Robust Active Accounts and Revenue Momentum
PayPal boasts 439 million active accounts, reflecting strong consumer engagement. The company delivered a 7% YoY revenue increase in 2024 and has maintained a ~14% CAGR in revenue and net income over the past decade.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PYPL Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$46.48
52W Range Position
20%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$38.46
+20.9% from the low
52-Week High
$79.50
-41.5% from the high
1 Month
+2.20%
3 Month
+16.49%
YTD
-20.1%
1 Year
-32.2%
3Y CAGR
-14.7%
5Y CAGR
-28.4%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PYPL vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.8x
vs 7.4x median
+18% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.2%
vs +14.1% median
-78% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs 15.2% median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $42.8B | 8.8x | +3.2% | — | Hold | +11.2% |
V V Visa Inc. | $617.8B | 24.6x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +12.6% |
MA MA Mastercard Incorporated | $440.0B | 25.4x | +14.1% | — | Buy | +32.1% |
FIS FIS Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $24.1B | 7.4x | +14.7% | 3.5% | Buy | +44.6% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $30.6B | 7.1x | -1.6% | 15.2% | Buy | +30.3% |
GPN GPN Global Payments Inc. | $16.4B | 5.1x | +26.9% | 16.9% | Buy | +27.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
PYPL Dividend and Capital Return
PYPL returns capital mainly through $6.1B/year in buybacks (14.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.29% dividend — combining for 14.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
14.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
14.2%
Dividend Yield
0.29%
Payout Ratio
2.5%
How PYPL Splits Its Return
Buyback 14.2%
Dividend 0.29%Buybacks 14.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$6.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
130M
Approx. Share Reduction
14.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
920M
At 14.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.14 | — | 10.7% | 10.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsPYPL Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 70 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 39 rate it Hold, and 4 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $52, implying +11.2% from the current price of $46. The bear case scenario is $38 and the bull case is $79.
02What is the PYPL stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PYPL is $52 based on 70 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $65 (+39.8% from today), and the low-end target is $34 (-26.9%). The base case model target is $50.
03Is PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) stock overvalued in 2026?
PYPL trades at 8.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PYPL in 2026 are: (1) Legal & Regulatory Compliance — PayPal operates in a highly regulated payments industry and must comply with evolving anti‑money laundering, digital services, and payment rules. (2) Securities Fraud Litigation — The company faces a wave of securities fraud class‑action lawsuits alleging it misled investors about growth prospects, salesforce capabilities, and branded checkout performance. (3) Competitive Market Share Loss — PayPal competes with established players and emerging digital wallets such as Apple Pay. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is PayPal Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PYPL will report consensus revenue of $34.4B (+3.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.33 (-4.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $36.1B in revenue.
06When does PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for PYPL is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does PayPal Holdings, Inc. generate?
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) generated $5.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. PYPL returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($6.1B TTM).