Upside case
Bull case
$96+114.5%
CART would need investors to value it at roughly 39x earnings — about 21x more generous than today's 18x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
27
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 27 covering CART
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$53
+18.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$46 – $96
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
27
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
18.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.5B
CART price targets
Three scenarios for where CART stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
69 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$46
Base
$73
Bull
$96
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$73+62.8%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$46+2.6%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push CART down roughly 3% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)
CART · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Instacart operates a digital marketplace that connects consumers with personal shoppers for same-day grocery delivery and pickup from retail partners. It generates revenue primarily through service fees, delivery charges, and advertising from consumer packaged goods brands — with its advertising business becoming an increasingly significant profit driver. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive retail partnerships — including exclusive deals with major grocery chains — and its first-mover scale in the North American online grocery delivery space.
Market Cap
$10.5B
Revenue TTM
$3.9B
Net Income TTM
$485M
Net Margin
12.6%
CART Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+270.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.38
Revenue
$914M/$896M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.49
Revenue
$939M/$934M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.52
Revenue
$992M/$973M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.57/$0.58
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.38 | +6.6% | $914M/$896M | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.51/$0.49 | +3.2% | $939M/$934M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.53/$0.52 | +1.9% | $992M/$973M | +1.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.57/$0.58 | -1.7% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.3B
+10.1% YoY
FY2
$4.6B
+7.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.41
+26.0% YoY
FY2
$2.81
+16.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$883M
FCF Margin: 22.9%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.55
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
CART beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CART Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction
71.5%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.2%
+10.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transaction is the largest disclosed segment at 71.5% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.2%, up 10.9% YoY.
CART Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $75 — implies +69.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
69.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CART
27.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+14% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CART
27.8x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+32% premium
vs CART 5Y Avg P/E
Today
27.8x
vs
5Y Average
27.2x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
18.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
+12%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
27.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+14%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
+32%
5Y Avg
27.2x
+3%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
16.7x
S&P 500
15.2x
+10%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+37%
5Y Avg
19.5x
-15%
Price/FCF
11.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-44%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-26%
5Y Avg
12.9x
-11%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-9%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+304%
5Y Avg
2.6x
+7%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CART | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CART |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 18.2x | 18.8x | 16.3x+12% | — |
| Trailing PE | 27.8x | 24.4x+14% | 21.2x+32% | 27.2x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.7x | 15.2x | 12.2x+37% | 19.5x-15% |
| Price/FCF | 11.6x | 20.7x-44% | 15.6x-26% | 12.9x-11% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x | 0.7x+304% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 2.17% | — |
CART trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCART Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CART generates $883M in free cash flow at a 22.9% margin — 20.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 13.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
14.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$883M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
20.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$637M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$601M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
13.1%
Dividend
—
Buyback
13.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
237M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCART Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory costs
Instacart faces increasing regulatory costs that could pressure margins and profitability.
High Risk
Competitive pressures
The company operates in a highly competitive market with rivals potentially eroding market share.
Medium
Volume declines
Instacart may experience drops in order volumes, impacting revenue growth.
Medium
Valuation concerns
With a 20x P/E ratio and slow growth, the stock may be overvalued relative to fundamentals.
Lower
Market saturation
Instacart's extensive reach (98% of North American households) limits untapped growth opportunities.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CART Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Broad retail partnerships
Instacart partners with over 300 retailers and grocers, offering a wide selection of products for delivery or pickup.
Strong Q3 2025 performance
Maplebear Inc. delivered a strong Q3 2025, indicating robust business growth and financial health.
Market leadership in online grocery
Instacart is a prominent player in the online grocery shopping industry, serving households across North America.
Convenient shopping experience
The Instacart app and website make it easy to order groceries and more from local stores, enhancing customer convenience.
Mission-driven growth
Instacart's mission to provide access to food and save time resonates with consumers, supporting long-term growth.
Recent bullish stock movement
The stock recently experienced strong bullish movement, reflecting positive market sentiment and investor confidence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CART Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$44.55
52W Range Position
57%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.73
+36.1% from the low
52-Week High
$53.50
-16.7% from the high
1 Month
+8.69%
3 Month
+17.89%
YTD
+1.5%
1 Year
+3.3%
3Y CAGR
+9.8%
5Y CAGR
+5.7%
10Y CAGR
+2.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CART vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
18.2x
vs 27.8x median
-34% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+10.1%
vs +11.4% median
-12% below peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 6.3% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAR CART Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) | $10.5B | 18.2x | +10.1% | 12.6% | Buy | +18.0% |
DAS DASH DoorDash, Inc. | $75.6B | 68.3x | +17.2% | 6.3% | Buy | +45.5% |
UBE UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | $148.4B | 21.6x | +12.6% | 15.9% | Buy | +42.3% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $934.0B | 40.3x | +5.0% | 3.2% | Buy | +19.0% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $34.9B | 10.8x | +1.9% | 0.7% | Buy | +31.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CART Dividend and Capital Return
CART returns 13.1% annually — null% through dividends and 13.1% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
13.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
13.1%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
31M
Approx. Share Reduction
13.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
237M
At 13.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCART Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 27 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $53, implying +18.0% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $46 and the bull case is $96.
02What is the CART stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CART is $53 based on 27 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $69 (+54.9% from today), and the low-end target is $43 (-3.5%). The base case model target is $73.
03Is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock overvalued in 2026?
CART trades at 18.2x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CART in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory costs — Instacart faces increasing regulatory costs that could pressure margins and profitability. (2) Competitive pressures — The company operates in a highly competitive market with rivals potentially eroding market share. (3) Volume declines — Instacart may experience drops in order volumes, impacting revenue growth. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CART will report consensus revenue of $4.3B (+10.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.41 (+26.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.6B in revenue.
06When does Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) report its next earnings?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.55 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, CART has beaten EPS estimates 73% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) generate?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) generated $883M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.9%. CART returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).