Upside case
Bull case
$170+322.5%
CART would need investors to value it at roughly 71x earnings — about 54x more generous than today's 17x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
26
analysts
20 bullish · 1 bearish · 26 covering CART
Strong Buy
0
Buy
20
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$50
+23.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $170
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
26
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
16.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
CART price targets
Three scenarios for where CART stock could go
Current
~$40
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $40
Base
$44
Bull
$170
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$44+8.9%
This is close to how the market is already pricing CART — at roughly 18x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)
CART · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailDecember year-end
Instacart operates a digital marketplace that connects consumers with personal shoppers for same-day grocery delivery and pickup from retail partners. It generates revenue primarily through service fees, delivery charges, and advertising from consumer packaged goods brands — with its advertising business becoming an increasingly significant profit driver. The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive retail partnerships — including exclusive deals with major grocery chains — and its first-mover scale in the North American online grocery delivery space.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$3.9B
Net Income TTM
$485M
Net Margin
12.6%
CART Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+298.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.38
Revenue
$897M/$895M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.38
Revenue
$914M/$896M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.51/$0.49
Revenue
$939M/$934M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.53/$0.52
Revenue
$992M/$973M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.37/$0.38 | -2.6% | $897M/$895M | +0.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.38 | +6.6% | $914M/$896M | +2.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.51/$0.49 | +3.2% | $939M/$934M | +0.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.53/$0.52 | +1.9% | $992M/$973M | +1.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.2B
+14.8% YoY
FY2
$4.7B
+12.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.96
+7.9% YoY
FY2
$1.72
-12.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$883M
FCF Margin: 22.9%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.57
Expected Revenue
$1.0B
CART beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
CART Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Transaction
71.6%
+11.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
96.1%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Transaction is the largest disclosed segment at 71.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 11.5% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 96.1%, up 10.6% YoY.
CART Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $61 — implies +43.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
43.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
CART
25.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
CART
25.1x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+28% premium
vs CART 5Y Avg P/E
Today
25.1x
vs
5Y Average
27.2x
7% discount
Forward PE
16.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
+10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
25.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
-0%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
+28%
5Y Avg
27.2x
-7%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
13.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-13%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
+16%
5Y Avg
18.4x
-28%
Price/FCF
10.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
-51%
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
-30%
5Y Avg
12.9x
-19%
Price/Sales
2.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
-19%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+257%
5Y Avg
2.6x
-4%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | CART | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg CART |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 16.7x | 19.1x-12% | 15.2x+10% | — |
| Trailing PE | 25.1x | 25.2x | 19.6x+28% | 27.2x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.2x | 15.3x-13% | 11.4x+16% | 18.4x-28% |
| Price/FCF | 10.4x | 21.3x-51% | 15.0x-30% | 12.9x-19% |
| Price/Sales | 2.5x | 3.1x-19% | 0.7x+257% | 2.6x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
CART trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolCART Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
CART generates $883M in free cash flow at a 22.9% margin — 24.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 14.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
73.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.91
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$883M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
22.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
24.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$637M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$601M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
14.6%
Dividend
—
Buyback
14.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.4B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
237M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageCART Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Landscape
Instacart faces intense competition from major players like Amazon, DoorDash, and Uber, which leads to frequent price and promotion battles that can pressure margins and market share. Additionally, large retailers such as Walmart and Amazon are developing in-house delivery solutions that threaten to cut Instacart out as a middleman.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Risks
An ongoing FTC investigation into Instacart's AI pricing tool, Eversight, introduces significant regulatory uncertainty and could result in substantial remediation costs. Furthermore, a recent jury ruling in Portland ordered Instacart to pay $16 million after an accident, highlighting potential legal liabilities that could impact financial stability.
Medium
Operational Challenges
Approximately 25% of Instacart's business partners have migrated to competitors, which strains gross merchandise volume (GMV) and fulfillment density. Additionally, local laws in cities like Seattle and New York City are increasing operational costs, forcing Instacart to raise fees and adjust driver incentives, leading to declining order volumes in some areas.
Medium
Macroeconomic Headwinds
A macroeconomic consumer pullback could reduce order frequency and average order value (AOV), negatively impacting revenue. Competitive pricing pressure from grocers and other delivery platforms may also lower Instacart's take rates, further squeezing profitability.
Lower
Financial and Valuation Risks
While Instacart's fundamentals appear solid, slow revenue growth and competitive threats raise concerns about its valuation. Analysts suggest that the stock may be trading below its assessed fair value, but this is contingent on factors like gig worker regulations and competitive pressures that could impact margins.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why CART Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Consistent Revenue Growth
Instacart has demonstrated consistent revenue growth, with a 10.78% increase in 2025 to $3.74 billion. Gross Transaction Value (GTV) also saw a 10% year-over-year rise to $9.17 billion in Q3 2025.
Improving Profitability Metrics
The company has shown improving profitability, with GAAP net income increasing by 22% to $144 million and adjusted EBITDA rising by 22% to $278 million in Q3 2025. Earnings are expected to grow by 20.33% in the coming year.
High Gross Margins
Instacart boasts impressively high gross margins, exceeding 75% in Q3 2024, significantly higher than the industry average. Operating and profit margins are also above average, with expectations for further expansion.
Strategic Enterprise Partnerships
Instacart is expanding its ecosystem through high-value partnerships, such as its exclusive e-commerce fulfillment partnership with Aldi U.S. These collaborations aim to bridge physical and digital shopping experiences.
International Market Expansion
Instacart is making a meaningful push into international markets through acquisitions like Instaleap. This strategic expansion is expected to enhance its market presence and revenue potential.
Strong Cash Flow Generation
The company is on track for $1 billion in free cash flow in 2025, supported by a strong balance sheet with substantial cash reserves and minimal debt.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
CART Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$40.21
52W Range Position
36%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$32.73
+22.8% from the low
52-Week High
$53.50
-24.8% from the high
1 Month
-1.98%
3 Month
+16.07%
YTD
-8.4%
1 Year
-11.8%
3Y CAGR
+6.1%
5Y CAGR
+3.6%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
CART vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
16.7x
vs 35.3x median
-53% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+14.8%
vs +10.0% median
+48% above peer median
Net Margin
12.6%
vs 6.3% median
+100% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAR CART Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) | $9.5B | 16.7x | +14.8% | 12.6% | Buy | +23.6% |
DAS DASH DoorDash, Inc. | $73.2B | 65.9x | +35.5% | 6.3% | Buy | +50.8% |
UBE UBER Uber Technologies, Inc. | $162.9B | 23.5x | +15.4% | 15.9% | Buy | +32.5% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.96T | 35.3x | +10.0% | 12.2% | Buy | +11.6% |
WMT WMT Walmart Inc. | $1.04T | 44.7x | +5.9% | 3.3% | Buy | +5.4% |
KR KR The Kroger Co. | $41.8B | 12.6x | +0.8% | 0.7% | Buy | +13.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
CART Dividend and Capital Return
CART returns 14.6% annually — null% through dividends and 14.6% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
14.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
14.6%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.4B
Estimated Shares Retired
34M
Approx. Share Reduction
14.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
237M
At 14.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsCART Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 20 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $50, implying +23.6% from the current price of $40.
02What is the CART stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for CART is $50 based on 26 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+49.2% from today), and the low-end target is $42 (+4.5%). The base case model target is $44.
03Is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock overvalued in 2026?
CART trades at 16.7x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for CART in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Landscape — Instacart faces intense competition from major players like Amazon, DoorDash, and Uber, which leads to frequent price and promotion battles that can pressure margins and market share. (2) Regulatory and Legal Risks — An ongoing FTC investigation into Instacart's AI pricing tool, Eversight, introduces significant regulatory uncertainty and could result in substantial remediation costs. (3) Operational Challenges — Approximately 25% of Instacart's business partners have migrated to competitors, which strains gross merchandise volume (GMV) and fulfillment density. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates CART will report consensus revenue of $4.2B (+14.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.96 (+7.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.7B in revenue.
06When does Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) report its next earnings?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.57 and revenue of $1.0B. Over recent quarters, CART has beaten EPS estimates 80% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) generate?
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) generated $883M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 22.9%. CART returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.4B TTM).