Upside case
Bull case
$47+68.8%
SIRI would need investors to value it at roughly 15x earnings — about 6x more generous than today's 9x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
19 bullish · 5 bearish · 32 covering SIRI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
18
Hold
8
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$28
-0.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$23 – $47
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
8.9x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.4B
SIRI price targets
Three scenarios for where SIRI stock could go
Current
~$28
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $28
Bear
$23
Base
$36
Bull
$47
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$36+28.1%
At 11x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$23-19.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push SIRI down roughly 19% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
SIRI · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Sirius XM is a subscription-based satellite radio and audio entertainment company that broadcasts hundreds of music, sports, talk, and news channels across North America. It generates revenue primarily from monthly subscription fees — with automotive partnerships driving most new subscribers — supplemented by advertising on non-music channels and connected vehicle services. Its key moat is its exclusive satellite spectrum licenses and deep integration with automakers, giving it a captive audience in millions of vehicles where it's factory-installed.
Market Cap
$9.4B
Revenue TTM
$8.6B
Net Income TTM
$846M
Net Margin
9.9%
SIRI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-12.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.57/$0.79
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.84/$0.78
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.84/$0.77
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.57/$0.79 | -27.8% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.84/$0.78 | +7.1% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.84/$0.77 | +9.1% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.72/$0.70 | +2.9% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.3B
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$9.7B
+4.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.82
+12.8% YoY
FY2
$2.94
+4.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.4B
FCF Margin: 15.8%
Next Earnings
July 30, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.78
Expected Revenue
$2.1B
SIRI beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SIRI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Subscription and Circulation
77.4%
-2.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Subscription and Circulation is the largest disclosed segment at 77.4% of FY 2025 revenue, down 2.0% YoY.
SIRI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $97 — implies +247.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
247.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SIRI
12.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
49% discount
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
SIRI
12.5x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
19% discount
vs SIRI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.5x
vs
5Y Average
16.1x
23% discount
Forward PE
8.9x
S&P 500
18.8x
-52%
Communication Services
11.3x
-21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-49%
Communication Services
15.3x
-19%
5Y Avg
16.1x
-23%
PEG Ratio
0.25x
S&P 500
1.66x
-85%
Communication Services
0.64x
-61%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
-39%
Communication Services
9.6x
-4%
5Y Avg
11.8x
-21%
Price/FCF
7.6x
S&P 500
20.7x
-63%
Communication Services
11.4x
-33%
5Y Avg
12.6x
-40%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-64%
Communication Services
1.0x
+8%
5Y Avg
1.9x
-43%
Dividend Yield
3.65%
S&P 500
1.91%
+91%
Communication Services
3.43%
+6%
5Y Avg
2.81%
+30%
| Metric | SIRI | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg SIRI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 8.9x | 18.8x-52% | 11.3x-21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.5x | 24.4x-49% | 15.3x-19% | 16.1x-23% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.25x | 1.66x-85% | 0.64x-61% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.2x | 15.2x-39% | 9.6x | 11.8x-21% |
| Price/FCF | 7.6x | 20.7x-63% | 11.4x-33% | 12.6x-40% |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-64% | 1.0x | 1.9x-43% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.65% | 1.91% | 3.43% | 2.81% |
SIRI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSIRI Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SIRI generates $1.4B in free cash flow at a 15.8% margin — returns 5.1% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$8.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
9.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.50
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$94M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$9.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
7.1× FCF
~7.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.1%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
1.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$136M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
45.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
337M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSIRI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
The company faces significant competition in the audio entertainment space, which could erode its market share and profitability.
High Risk
Financial Instability
Sirius XM Holdings carries weak debt coverage and reported a recent $381 million one-off loss, indicating financial vulnerability.
Medium
Stock Performance
The stock has experienced notable downturns, including a 5.5% drop on a single day, reflecting market skepticism.
Medium
Dividend Risk
The company has an unstable dividend record, which may deter income-focused investors.
Lower
Operational Risks
The company's diverse programming and audience base provide some stability, but operational challenges remain.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SIRI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong subscription model
The company's subscription model is highlighted as a key strength, with low churn rates and reliable revenue streams.
High-quality content
SiriusXM offers diverse content, including music, comedy, and sports, which attracts and retains subscribers.
Undervalued stock
The stock is considered undervalued relative to its fair value, with a strong free cash flow yield of 15%.
Financial performance
Strong fiscal Q1 2026 results have contributed to a 25% stock price increase, indicating robust financial health.
Free cash flow growth
The company is expected to see growth in free cash flow, supporting its financial stability and investment potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SIRI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$28.03
52W Range Position
80%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$19.77
+41.8% from the low
52-Week High
$30.11
-6.9% from the high
1 Month
+7.44%
3 Month
+24.69%
YTD
+36.7%
1 Year
+30.4%
3Y CAGR
-9.2%
5Y CAGR
-15.0%
10Y CAGR
-3.4%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SIRI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
8.9x
vs 30.9x median
-71% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +6.8% median
+21% above peer median
Net Margin
9.9%
vs 12.2% median
-19% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SIR SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc. | $9.4B | 8.9x | +8.2% | 9.9% | Buy | -0.8% |
IHR IHRT iHeartMedia, Inc. | $467M | — | +0.4% | -7.3% | Buy | -2.5% |
AUD AUDC AudioCodes Ltd. | $244M | 14.9x | +4.1% | 2.8% | Buy | +108.6% |
SPO SPOT Spotify Technology S.A. | $96.3B | 36.6x | +12.3% | 15.5% | Buy | +31.3% |
AAP AAPL Apple Inc. | $4.38T | 34.0x | +6.8% | 27.2% | Buy | +9.6% |
AMZ AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $2.63T | 27.8x | +11.4% | 12.2% | Buy | +25.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SIRI Dividend and Capital Return
SIRI returns 5.1% total yield, led by a 3.65% dividend, raised 9 consecutive years. Buybacks add another 1.4%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.4%
Dividend Yield
3.65%
Payout Ratio
45.3%
How SIRI Splits Its Return
Div 3.65%
Buyback 1.4%
Dividend 3.65%Buybacks 1.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
-31.8%
5Y Div CAGR
14.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$136M
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
337M
At 1.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.54 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.08 | +1.1% | 1.9% | 7.0% |
| 2024 | $1.07 | +7.7% | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| 2023 | $0.99 | -70.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| 2022 | $3.40 | +416.2% | 2.8% | 8.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsSIRI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 19 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $28, implying -0.8% from the current price of $28. The bear case scenario is $23 and the bull case is $47.
02What is the SIRI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SIRI is $28 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $34 (+21.3% from today), and the low-end target is $21 (-25.1%). The base case model target is $36.
03Is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) stock overvalued in 2026?
SIRI trades at 8.9x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SIRI in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Pressure — The company faces significant competition in the audio entertainment space, which could erode its market share and profitability. (2) Financial Instability — Sirius XM Holdings carries weak debt coverage and reported a recent $381 million one-off loss, indicating financial vulnerability. (3) Stock Performance — The stock has experienced notable downturns, including a 5. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SIRI will report consensus revenue of $9.3B (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.82 (+12.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $9.7B in revenue.
06When does Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) report its next earnings?
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-30. Consensus expects EPS of $0.78 and revenue of $2.1B. Over recent quarters, SIRI has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Sirius XM Holdings Inc. generate?
Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) generated $1.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.8%. SIRI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($136M TTM).