Upside case
Bull case
$11-93.1%
The bull case prices SMTC at 6x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering SMTC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$203
+28.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$5 – $11
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
93.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.7B
SMTC price targets
Three scenarios for where SMTC stock could go
Current
~$158
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $158
Bear
$5
Base
$8
Bull
$11
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$8-94.7%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$5-96.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 90x multiple contraction could push SMTC down roughly 97% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Semtech Corporation
SMTC · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
Semtech Corporation is an analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company that designs specialized chips for signal integrity, protection, and wireless sensing applications. It generates revenue primarily from semiconductor sales across four segments: Signal Integrity (~50% of revenue), Protection (~20%), Wireless & Sensing (~20%), and Power (~10%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized analog expertise—particularly in high-speed signal conditioning and LoRa wireless technology—which creates switching costs for customers in infrastructure and industrial markets.
Market Cap
$14.7B
Revenue TTM
$1.1B
Net Income TTM
-$36M
Net Margin
-3.2%
SMTC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+59.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.40
Revenue
$258M/$265M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.44
Revenue
$267M/$266M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.43
Revenue
$274M/$273M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.45
Revenue
$291M/$284M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.40 | +2.5% | $258M/$265M | -2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.48/$0.44 | +7.9% | $267M/$266M | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.43 | +2.3% | $274M/$273M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.51/$0.45 | +12.4% | $291M/$284M | +2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.2B
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$1.3B
+9.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$0.19
+151.2% YoY
FY2
$0.46
+145.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$167M
FCF Margin: 15.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SMTC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SMTC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2026
Total disclosed revenue $1.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Semiconductor Products Group
39.9%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
66.4%
+21.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Semiconductor Products Group is the largest disclosed segment at 39.9% of FY 2026 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 66.4%, up 21.4% YoY.
SMTC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fair versus peers
Fair value est. $158 — implies -0.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
0.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMTC
-344.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1507% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SMTC
-344.0x
vs
Technology
29.0x
1286% discount
vs SMTC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-344.0x
vs
5Y Average
35.7x
1063% discount
Forward PE
93.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
+396%
Technology
22.3x
+319%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-344.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1507%
Technology
29.0x
-1286%
5Y Avg
35.7x
-1063%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Technology
1.51x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
86.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+467%
Technology
16.6x
+419%
5Y Avg
36.4x
+137%
Price/FCF
92.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+346%
Technology
19.2x
+380%
5Y Avg
50.5x
+83%
Price/Sales
14.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+354%
Technology
2.4x
+476%
5Y Avg
4.5x
+211%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMTC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SMTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 93.3x | 18.8x+396% | 22.3x+319% | — |
| Trailing PE | -344.0x | 24.4x-1507% | 29.0x-1286% | 35.7x-1063% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.51x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 86.2x | 15.2x+467% | 16.6x+419% | 36.4x+137% |
| Price/FCF | 92.3x | 20.7x+346% | 19.2x+380% | 50.5x+83% |
| Price/Sales | 14.0x | 3.1x+354% | 2.4x+476% | 4.5x+211% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
SMTC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMTC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SMTC generates $167M in free cash flow at a 15.1% margin — 11.8% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.5% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+11.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
11.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-3.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.37
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$167M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
11.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$195M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$296M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.8× FCF
~1.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-6.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
1.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$218M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
93M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSMTC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Valuation concerns
The stock's Hold Score and balanced risk/reward profile suggest limited upside potential at current valuation levels.
High Risk
Market competition
As a provider of high-performance semiconductors, Semtech faces intense competition in the rapidly evolving AI and data center markets.
Medium
Revenue concentration
Strong demand for 800G optical products may indicate over-reliance on a single product line for growth.
Lower
Regulatory disclosures
Annual Report highlights potential regulatory and financial disclosure risks that could impact investor confidence.
High Risk
Technology obsolescence
Rapid advancements in semiconductor technology could render existing products obsolete faster than anticipated.
Medium
Execution risk
As a multinational company, Semtech faces operational challenges in maintaining growth across diverse markets.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMTC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
AI data center networking
Semtech is a leading provider of high-performance semiconductors powering AI data center networking, with strong demand for its 800G optical products.
IoT and LoRa adoption
The bull case assumes accelerating adoption of LoRa/IoT solutions, driven by Semtech's connectivity licensing and recurring revenue streams.
Gross margin improvement
Improving gross margins are expected from higher average selling prices (ASPs) and recurring connectivity licensing revenue.
Multiple expansion potential
The stock could see multiple expansion toward peer levels, supported by sustained design-win cadence and positive operating leverage.
AI interconnect growth
Semtech's AI interconnect story is evolving from emerging bets into a more explicit growth stack, including 800G durability and new product shipments like LPO and ACC/CopperEdge.
Strong design win momentum
The company highlighted expanding design wins across its product portfolio, signaling future revenue growth.
Technology innovation leadership
Semtech is a multinational technology innovator, enabling solutions for safer, more productive, and connected environments across various end-markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMTC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$158.23
52W Range Position
86%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$40.24
+293.2% from the low
52-Week High
$177.35
-10.8% from the high
1 Month
+19.52%
3 Month
+115.66%
YTD
+110.2%
1 Year
+277.5%
3Y CAGR
+91.3%
5Y CAGR
+20.1%
10Y CAGR
+20.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMTC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
93.3x
vs 65.3x median
+43% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +13.1% median
-37% below peer median
Net Margin
-3.2%
vs 3.7% median
-187% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMT SMTC Semtech Corporation | $14.7B | 93.3x | +8.2% | -3.2% | Buy | +28.5% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.2B | 79.4x | +13.1% | -6.1% | Buy | -3.7% |
SIT SITM SiTime Corporation | $19.2B | 92.9x | +26.0% | -6.4% | Buy | -8.9% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.5B | 45.5x | +7.7% | 5.5% | Buy | +0.5% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.9B | 65.3x | +2.9% | 3.7% | Buy | +3.3% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $76.8B | 65.2x | +21.3% | 22.1% | Buy | +3.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SMTC Dividend and Capital Return
SMTC returns 1.5% annually — null% through dividends and 1.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
1.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$218M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
93M
At 1.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $0.10 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsSMTC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $203, implying +28.5% from the current price of $158. The bear case scenario is $5 and the bull case is $11.
02What is the SMTC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SMTC is $203 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $225 (+42.2% from today), and the low-end target is $175 (+10.6%). The base case model target is $8.
03Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock overvalued in 2026?
SMTC trades at 93.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fair versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMTC in 2026 are: (1) Market competition — As a provider of high-performance semiconductors, Semtech faces intense competition in the rapidly evolving AI and data center markets. (2) Technology obsolescence — Rapid advancements in semiconductor technology could render existing products obsolete faster than anticipated. (3) Valuation concerns — The stock's Hold Score and balanced risk/reward profile suggest limited upside potential at current valuation levels. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Semtech Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SMTC will report consensus revenue of $1.2B (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $0.19 (+151.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.3B in revenue.
06When does Semtech Corporation (SMTC) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SMTC is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Semtech Corporation generate?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) generated $167M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.1%. SMTC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($218M TTM).