Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SMTC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
32
analysts
27 bullish · 0 bearish · 32 covering SMTC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
27
Hold
5
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$87
-26.7% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
32
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
70.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $11.0B
SMTC price targets
Three scenarios for where SMTC stock could go
Current
~$119
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Semtech Corporation
SMTC · NASDAQTechnologySemiconductorsJanuary year-end
Semtech Corporation is an analog and mixed-signal semiconductor company that designs specialized chips for signal integrity, protection, and wireless sensing applications. It generates revenue primarily from semiconductor sales across four segments: Signal Integrity (~50% of revenue), Protection (~20%), Wireless & Sensing (~20%), and Power (~10%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its specialized analog expertise—particularly in high-speed signal conditioning and LoRa wireless technology—which creates switching costs for customers in infrastructure and industrial markets.
Market Cap
$11.0B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$29M
Net Margin
2.8%
SMTC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+69.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.38/$0.37
Revenue
$251M/$250M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.41/$0.40
Revenue
$258M/$265M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.48/$0.44
Revenue
$267M/$266M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.44/$0.43
Revenue
$274M/$273M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.38/$0.37 | +2.5% | $251M/$250M | +0.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.41/$0.40 | +2.5% | $258M/$265M | -2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.48/$0.44 | +7.9% | $267M/$266M | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.44/$0.43 | +2.3% | $274M/$273M | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.1B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$1.2B
+9.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.40
-222.3% YoY
FY2
$-1.35
-239.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$143M
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
May 26, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.45
Expected Revenue
$283M
SMTC beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SMTC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $909M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
IoT Systems And Connectivity
35.7%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Asia Pacific
63.2%
+13.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
IoT Systems And Connectivity is the largest disclosed segment at 35.7% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Asia Pacific is the largest reported region at 63.2%, up 13.7% YoY.
SMTC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $92 — implies -15.0% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
15.0%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SMTC
-52.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
309% discount
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SMTC
-52.8x
vs
Technology
27.5x
292% discount
vs SMTC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-52.8x
vs
5Y Average
49.8x
206% discount
Forward PE
70.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+269%
Technology
21.7x
+224%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-52.8x
S&P 500
25.2x
-309%
Technology
27.5x
-292%
5Y Avg
49.8x
-206%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Technology
1.47x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
102.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+573%
Technology
17.4x
+491%
5Y Avg
36.5x
+181%
Price/FCF
251.4x
S&P 500
21.3x
+1078%
Technology
19.8x
+1170%
5Y Avg
52.9x
+375%
Price/Sales
12.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+286%
Technology
2.4x
+401%
5Y Avg
4.7x
+155%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Technology
1.18%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SMTC | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SMTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 70.3x | 19.1x+269% | 21.7x+224% | — |
| Trailing PE | -52.8x | 25.2x-309% | 27.5x-292% | 49.8x-206% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.47x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 102.7x | 15.3x+573% | 17.4x+491% | 36.5x+181% |
| Price/FCF | 251.4x | 21.3x+1078% | 19.8x+1170% | 52.9x+375% |
| Price/Sales | 12.1x | 3.1x+286% | 2.4x+401% | 4.7x+155% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 1.18% | — |
SMTC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSMTC Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
SMTC generates $143M in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+20.6%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
52.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
12.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$0.33
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$143M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$152M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$400M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.8× FCF
~2.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
5.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
72M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSMTC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Financial Leverage
Semtech carries a significant amount of debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio close to 1.0 (0.99 as of October 30, 2025). This high leverage can amplify risk during economic downturns, and the interest coverage ratio is notably low at 0.71 times, indicating that interest expenses have significantly impacted the business.
High Risk
Valuation Concerns
Semtech's stock is considered significantly overvalued by some metrics, with its market price far exceeding its calculated GF Value. The stock also trades at a high forward P/E ratio compared to some industry peers, raising concerns about the margin of safety for investors.
Medium
Supply Chain Dependence
Semtech relies on an Asia-based supply chain, making it vulnerable to disruptions. Any significant supply chain issues could adversely affect production and sales.
Medium
Industry Volatility
The semiconductor industry is inherently volatile, which can impact Semtech's growth and profitability. Fluctuations in demand and pricing can lead to unpredictable financial performance.
Medium
Technological Competition
Emerging technologies like Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) could potentially integrate optical engines directly into switch chips, diminishing the competitive advantage of Semtech's LPO technology. This competition may affect market share and profitability.
Lower
Slower Adoption Rates
There's a risk of slower adoption rates for Semtech's data center products, which could hinder revenue growth. If customers are slow to adopt new technologies, it may impact the company's financial performance.
Lower
Insider Selling
Recent insider selling of company stock has been noted, suggesting a lack of buying interest from those within the company. This could indicate potential concerns about the company's future performance.
Lower
Profitability and Operational Efficiency
While Semtech has strong gross margins, its operating margins have been volatile, and the company has reported net losses due to impairment charges. Declining profitability and reduced operational efficiency are indicated by a low Piotroski F-score and Altman Z-score.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SMTC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Demand in High-Growth Sectors
Semtech is well-positioned to benefit from increased demand in data centers and optical connectivity, with products designed to enhance performance and efficiency in these areas. The company's acquisition of HieFo is expected to bolster its position in the high-speed optical drivers market.
IoT and LoRa Expansion
The growing adoption of LoRa technology and broader IoT applications is seen as a significant opportunity to expand Semtech's addressable market. This expansion is expected to generate recurring revenue through intellectual property and licensing.
Strategic Focus and Portfolio Streamlining
Semtech is focusing on high-growth areas such as signal integrity, LoRa, and proximity sensing. The company is also streamlining its product portfolio to align with AI infrastructure, industrial automation, and advanced consumer connectivity.
Financial Performance and Debt Reduction
The company has reported strong earnings and is actively pursuing strategic divestitures to strengthen its core semiconductor focus. Semtech has also made significant progress in reducing its debt, which is expected to provide a stable financial foundation for future growth.
Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets
A majority of analysts covering Semtech have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' rating, indicating strong confidence in the stock. Technical indicators also suggest a 'Strong Buy' signal based on moving averages and other technical indicators.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SMTC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$119.24
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$33.06
+260.7% from the low
52-Week High
$120.27
-0.9% from the high
1 Month
+44.29%
3 Month
+37.85%
YTD
+58.4%
1 Year
+251.7%
3Y CAGR
+85.2%
5Y CAGR
+13.6%
10Y CAGR
+18.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SMTC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
70.3x
vs 76.7x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +16.7% median
-68% below peer median
Net Margin
2.8%
vs 4.5% median
-38% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SMT SMTC Semtech Corporation | $11.0B | 70.3x | +5.3% | 2.8% | Buy | -26.7% |
SLA SLAB Silicon Laboratories Inc. | $7.1B | 80.0x | +16.7% | -8.3% | Buy | -2.3% |
SIT SITM SiTime Corporation | $16.5B | 121.2x | +33.2% | -13.1% | Buy | -30.0% |
DIO DIOD Diodes Incorporated | $5.3B | 50.0x | +6.1% | 4.5% | Buy | -36.2% |
POW POWI Power Integrations, Inc. | $4.4B | 60.5x | +0.0% | 5.0% | Buy | +1.0% |
MPW MPWR Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | $81.2B | 76.7x | +22.7% | 22.1% | Buy | -2.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SMTC Dividend and Capital Return
SMTC does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
72M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw |
|---|---|---|
| 1980 | $0.10 | — |
FAQ
7 questionsSMTC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 32 analysts covering the stock, 27 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $87, implying -26.7% from the current price of $119.
02What is the SMTC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SMTC is $87 based on 32 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $110 (-7.7% from today), and the low-end target is $67 (-43.8%).
03Is Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock overvalued in 2026?
SMTC trades at 70.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Semtech Corporation (SMTC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SMTC in 2026 are: (1) Financial Leverage — Semtech carries a significant amount of debt, with a debt-to-equity ratio close to 1. (2) Valuation Concerns — Semtech's stock is considered significantly overvalued by some metrics, with its market price far exceeding its calculated GF Value. (3) Supply Chain Dependence — Semtech relies on an Asia-based supply chain, making it vulnerable to disruptions. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Semtech Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SMTC will report consensus revenue of $1.1B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.40 (-222.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.2B in revenue.
06When does Semtech Corporation (SMTC) report its next earnings?
Semtech Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-26. Consensus expects EPS of $0.45 and revenue of $283M. Over recent quarters, SMTC has beaten EPS estimates 92% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Semtech Corporation generate?
Semtech Corporation (SMTC) generated $143M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. SMTC returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).