Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Valuation Overview•Is Semtech Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Moderate quality score of 62/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
SMTC demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (11.5% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 12.5%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $341.9M | — | +11.5% | +12.0% | +7.9% | |
| EBITDA | $56.2M | — | -3.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $160.1M | +0.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.59 | +0.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $61.4M | +0.0% | +17.5% | +13.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 51.7% | 48.2% | 54.1% | 55.5% |
| Operating Margin | 12.5% | 5.2% | 11.2% | 11.6% |
| Net Margin | 10.7% | -49.1% | -24.5% | -7.9% |
| FCF Margin | 15.6% | 1.9% | 8.5% | 12.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.61 | $0.71 | +15.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.45 | $0.51 | +12.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.43 | $0.44 | +2.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.44 | $0.48 | +7.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.40 | $0.41 | +2.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.37 | $0.38 | +2.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.32 | $0.40 | +25.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.23 | $0.26 | +13.0% |
Total return is +183.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +167.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +131.6% | +118.4% | — |
| 1Y | +183.3% | +167.3% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +88.3% | +70.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +16.5% | +5.9% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +20.1% | +7.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Semtech Corporation (SMTC) valuation, health, and returns.
Semtech Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -30.1% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $129.24)
Semtech Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $129.24 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $129.90 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $210.36 (implying +20.7% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Semtech Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 62/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 12.3 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 11.8%.
Semtech Corporation returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.3% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +23.5% in the last 12 months.
Semtech Corporation's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved N/A 1Y revenue growth and +0.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +11.5%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 32 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 92% of recent quarters with a 10-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +20.7% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Semtech Corporation include: -40.7% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.07x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.07x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.