Upside case
Bull case
$40+86.2%
SREA would need investors to value it at roughly 8x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 4x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewNo CoverageUpdated —
Sempra (SREA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Mixed
Covering
—
analysts
0 bullish · 0 bearish · 0 covering SREA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
— – $40
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
—
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
4.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $14.0B
SREA price targets
Three scenarios for where SREA stock could go
Current
~$22
Confidence
26 / 100
Updated
—
Where we are now
Current · $22
Base
$27
Bull
$40
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$27+24.8%
At 5x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sempra
SREA · NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricDecember year-end
Sempra is a diversified energy infrastructure company that operates regulated utilities and develops energy infrastructure projects. It generates revenue primarily through its regulated California utilities — Southern California Gas and San Diego Gas & Electric — which provide stable cash flows, supplemented by its Sempra Infrastructure segment that develops LNG export facilities and other energy projects. The company's key advantage is its strategic position in critical energy markets — California and Texas — with regulated monopoly utilities providing predictable earnings and infrastructure assets positioned to benefit from the energy transition.
Market Cap
$14.0B
Revenue TTM
$13.7B
Net Income TTM
$1.8B
Net Margin
13.4%
SREA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
10%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-8.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.41/$1.32
Revenue
$3.8B/$3.9B
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.72/$0.85
Revenue
$3.0B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.15/$0.91
Revenue
$3.2B/$2.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.28/$1.24
Revenue
$3.7B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.41/$1.32 | +6.8% | $3.8B/$3.9B | -2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.72/$0.85 | -14.5% | $3.0B/$3.1B | -3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.15/$0.91 | -84.0% | $3.2B/$2.9B | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.28/$1.24 | +3.2% | $3.7B/$4.0B | -7.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.1B
+3.0% YoY
FY2
$14.3B
+1.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.28
+16.8% YoY
FY2
$3.43
+4.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$10.2B
FCF Margin: -74.4%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SREA beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SREA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $23.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Utilities Service Line
50.0%
+4.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Entity-Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas, United States
88.6%
+4.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Utilities Service Line is the largest disclosed segment at 50.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.0% YoY.
Entity-Wide Disclosure On Geographic Areas, United States is the largest reported region at 88.6%, up 4.4% YoY.
SREA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $62 — implies +189.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
189.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SREA
7.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
69% discount
vs Utilities Trailing P/E
SREA
7.8x
vs
Utilities
20.1x
61% discount
vs SREA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.8x
vs
5Y Average
7.7x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
4.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-78%
Utilities
17.5x
-76%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-69%
Utilities
20.1x
-61%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+1%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Utilities
1.69x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
74.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+390%
Utilities
11.4x
+557%
5Y Avg
20.1x
+272%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Utilities
15.1x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-67%
Utilities
2.2x
-52%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-5%
Dividend Yield
11.42%
S&P 500
1.87%
+512%
Utilities
3.06%
+273%
5Y Avg
9.94%
+15%
| Metric | SREA | S&P 500 | Utilities | 5Y Avg SREA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 4.2x | 19.1x-78% | 17.5x-76% | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.8x | 25.1x-69% | 20.1x-61% | 7.7x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.69x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 74.6x | 15.2x+390% | 11.4x+557% | 20.1x+272% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 15.1x | — |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-67% | 2.2x-52% | 1.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 11.42% | 1.87% | 3.06% | 9.94% |
SREA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSREA Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SREA earns 23.7% operating margin on regulated earnings, 11.4% dividend yield. Utilities carry higher leverage than industrials as a structural feature of the business model.
Regulated Operations
Revenue, regulated margins, and earnings
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+4.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
23.7%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
13.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.81
Operating Margin
Operating income over revenue — primary regulated earnings signal
23.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$37.5B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
Regulated utilities typically operate at 3–5× net debt/FCF — this is structural, not a risk flag.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
18.2%
Dividend
11.4%
Buyback
6.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$958M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.46
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
87.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
653M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. Utilities operate with structural leverage (3–5× net debt/FCF) due to regulated, predictable cash flows.
Open full ratios pageSREA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Leverage and Debt
Sempra Energy has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.36 and a total debt-to-capitalization ratio nearing 0.81. S&P Global Ratings has issued a negative outlook due to consistently weak Funds From Operations (FFO) relative to debt levels, indicating a heavy reliance on debt for large capital projects.
High Risk
Regulatory Challenges
Sempra faces significant regulatory hurdles in California, with pending decisions that could lower the Return on Equity (ROE) for utilities. This may impact profitability and could lead to the loss of rate base or revenue-generating assets, resulting in unrecoverable impairment charges.
Medium
Economic and Market Volatility
The company's financial performance is susceptible to broader economic conditions, including interest rate changes and inflation expectations. Fluctuations in bond values and potential losses from investments sold before maturity further exacerbate this risk.
Medium
Issuance of Additional Equity
To fund its substantial capital needs, Sempra may issue additional equity or convertible debt securities. This could dilute the economic interest, voting rights, and market value of existing common stock.
Lower
Operational Risks
Risk management procedures may not always be effectively implemented, potentially leading to significant financial deviations. Daily Value at Risk (VaR) and loss limits based on historical price movements may not adequately protect against persistent price fluctuations.
Lower
Interest Rate Environment
Higher interest rates in the US have increased debt costs and slowed economic growth. While potential rate cuts could benefit utilities in the long term, market focus remains on growth prospects and inflation expectations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SREA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Financial Performance and Growth Potential
Sempra's recent quarterly revenue reached $3.75 billion, indicating strong demand for its services. The company's net income for Q4 2025 was $349 million, demonstrating profitability, while trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue stands at $14.8 billion, reflecting consistent performance.
Strategic Investments and Infrastructure Development
Sempra has long-term investments totaling $18.5 billion, supporting future growth initiatives. A stake sale of $10 billion in infrastructure is expected to enhance financial flexibility and support investment plans, driving EPS accretion from 2027.
Attractive Shareholder Returns
Sempra offers a dividend yield of 2.76%, providing attractive returns to shareholders. The annual dividend is $1.44 per share, with a yield of 6.65%, paid quarterly.
Low Market Sensitivity
Sempra has a beta of 0.25, indicating it tends to be less sensitive to market movements. This suggests a more stable investment, especially in uncertain market conditions.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts generally rate Sempra as a 'Buy,' citing strong, predictable income and robust long-term growth potential. The company's guidance remains solid, with 2025-2026 EPS targets reaffirmed.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SREA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.50
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.33
+239.7% from the low
52-Week High
$23.84
-9.8% from the high
1 Month
+1.85%
3 Month
-5.08%
YTD
-3.8%
1 Year
+4.8%
3Y CAGR
-4.2%
5Y CAGR
-4.8%
10Y CAGR
-1.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SREA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
4.2x
vs 19.0x median
-78% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+3.0%
vs +4.8% median
-37% below peer median
Net Margin
13.4%
vs 14.5% median
-7% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SRE SREA Sempra | $14.0B | 4.2x | +3.0% | 13.4% | — | — |
NEE NEE NextEra Energy, Inc. | $200.8B | 23.8x | +9.1% | 29.3% | Buy | +1.9% |
DUK DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $99.3B | 19.0x | +4.8% | 15.4% | Hold | +6.2% |
SO SO The Southern Company | $108.1B | 21.0x | +4.5% | 14.5% | Hold | +3.9% |
D D Dominion Energy, Inc. | $55.4B | 17.6x | +5.7% | 13.5% | Hold | +5.2% |
EXC EXC Exelon Corporation | $46.6B | 16.2x | +3.7% | 11.6% | Hold | +6.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SREA Dividend and Capital Return
SREA returns 18.2% total yield, led by a 11.42% dividend. Buybacks add another 6.8%.
Dividend At RiskFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
18.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
6.8%
Dividend Yield
11.42%
Payout Ratio
87.3%
How SREA Splits Its Return
Div 11.42%
Buyback 6.8%
Dividend 11.42%Buybacks 6.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.46
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
-0.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-0.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$958M
Estimated Shares Retired
45M
Approx. Share Reduction
6.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
653M
At 6.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.36 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.44 | +0.0% | 6.6% | 17.7% |
| 2024 | $1.44 | -0.0% | 0.3% | 10.7% |
| 2023 | $1.44 | -0.2% | 0.2% | 9.6% |
| 2022 | $1.44 | -0.3% | 3.5% | 13.9% |
FAQ
6 questionsSREA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sempra (SREA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sempra (SREA) has limited published analyst coverage at this time. Use the scenario targets and valuation multiples on this page as a guide.
02Is Sempra (SREA) stock overvalued in 2026?
SREA trades at 4.2x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Sempra (SREA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SREA in 2026 are: (1) High Leverage and Debt — Sempra Energy has a debt-to-equity ratio of 4. (2) Regulatory Challenges — Sempra faces significant regulatory hurdles in California, with pending decisions that could lower the Return on Equity (ROE) for utilities. (3) Economic and Market Volatility — The company's financial performance is susceptible to broader economic conditions, including interest rate changes and inflation expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Sempra's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SREA will report consensus revenue of $14.1B (+3.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.28 (+16.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $14.3B in revenue.
05When does Sempra (SREA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SREA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Sempra generate?
Sempra (SREA) had a free cash outflow of $10.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 74.4%. SREA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (11.4% yield) and share repurchases ($958M TTM).