Upside case
Bull case
$14084+84540.0%
TAK would need investors to value it at roughly 196x earnings — about 196x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
6
analysts
5 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 covering TAK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
1
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$2050 – $14084
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
6
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $52.6B
TAK price targets
Three scenarios for where TAK stock could go
Current
~$17
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $17
Bear
$2050
Base
$4104
Bull
$14084
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$4104+24560.8%
At 57x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$2050+12222.4%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TAK down roughly 12222% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited
TAK · NYSEHealthcareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericMarch year-end
Takeda Pharmaceutical is a global biopharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, and markets innovative medicines across multiple therapeutic areas. It generates revenue primarily from prescription drug sales — with key products in gastroenterology (~30% of revenue), rare diseases (~25%), plasma-derived therapies (~20%), oncology, and neuroscience — supplemented by licensing and collaboration income. The company's competitive advantage stems from its deep expertise in specialized therapeutic areas, particularly gastroenterology and rare diseases, and its global commercial infrastructure that enables market access across developed and emerging regions.
Market Cap
$52.6B
Revenue TTM
$4.49T
Net Income TTM
$114.8B
Net Margin
2.6%
TAK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+136.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.22/—
Revenue
$7.2B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.47
Revenue
$7.6B/$8.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.44/$0.44
Revenue
$7.4B/$7.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.48/$0.55
Revenue
$7.7B/$7.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.22/— | — | $7.2B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.47 | +10.6% | $7.6B/$8.0B | -3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.44/$0.44 | +0.0% | $7.4B/$7.5B | -0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.48/$0.55 | -12.7% | $7.7B/$7.5B | +2.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.80T
+7.0% YoY
FY2
$5.13T
+6.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$46.49
+29.9% YoY
FY2
$53.03
+14.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$956.6B
FCF Margin: 21.3%
Next Earnings
May 13, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.08
Expected Revenue
$7.2B
TAK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TAK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $4.58T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Gastroenterology
29.6%
+11.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
52.8%
+8.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Gastroenterology is the largest disclosed segment at 29.6% of FY 2024 revenue, up 11.6% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 52.8%, up 8.4% YoY.
TAK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1940 — implies +11575.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
11575.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TAK
77.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+208% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
TAK
77.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.3x
+247% premium
vs TAK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
77.4x
vs
5Y Average
0.3x
+30621% premium
Forward PE
0.2x
S&P 500
19.1x
-99%
Healthcare
18.8x
-99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
77.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
+208%
Healthcare
22.3x
+247%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+30621%
PEG Ratio
4.09x
S&P 500
1.70x
+141%
Healthcare
1.62x
+152%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.2x
S&P 500
15.3x
-27%
Healthcare
14.4x
-22%
5Y Avg
3.8x
+191%
Price/FCF
9.6x
S&P 500
21.4x
-55%
Healthcare
18.5x
-48%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+9215%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-42%
Healthcare
2.8x
-37%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+13873%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
S&P 500
1.90%
+91%
Healthcare
1.44%
+151%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TAK | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg TAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.2x | 19.1x-99% | 18.8x-99% | — |
| Trailing PE | 77.4x | 25.1x+208% | 22.3x+247% | 0.3x+30621% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.09x | 1.70x+141% | 1.62x+152% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.2x | 15.3x-27% | 14.4x-22% | 3.8x+191% |
| Price/FCF | 9.6x | 21.4x-55% | 18.5x-48% | 0.1x+9215% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-42% | 2.8x-37% | 0.0x+13873% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.62% | 1.90% | 1.44% | — |
TAK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTAK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
TAK generates $956.6B in free cash flow at a 21.3% margin — returns 4.3% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.49T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
62.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$35.80
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$956.6B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
21.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
2.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$385.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.13T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
4.3× FCF
~4.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.3%
Dividend
3.6%
Buyback
0.6%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$51.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$94.22
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
280.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTAK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Pipeline & R&D Risks
Takeda’s long‑term growth hinges on its R&D pipeline, which requires substantial spending. New drug candidates may fail in clinical trials or miss regulatory approval, potentially stalling revenue growth and eroding investor confidence.
High Risk
Patent Expirations & Generic Competition
Key drugs face patent expirations that expose Takeda to generic competition. Loss of exclusivity can sharply reduce revenue streams from those products, impacting overall profitability.
Medium
Volatile Earnings & Forecast Accuracy
Takeda has exhibited earnings volatility over the past 20 years, with periods of decline. Forecasts are often uncertain, and the company has a history of missing targets, adding earnings unpredictability.
Medium
Capital Allocation Strategy
Concerns exist that Takeda prioritizes share buybacks over deleveraging or R&D investment. This focus could undermine long‑term returns and limit resources for future growth initiatives.
Medium
Valuation & Over‑valuation Risks
Analysts note that Takeda’s current multiples may be elevated relative to peers. Overvaluation could lead to a market correction if growth expectations are not met.
Lower
Price Volatility Metrics
While the stock has been stable over the past three months, high maximum volatility and normalized average true range suggest significant price swings. Such volatility can deter risk‑averse investors and affect short‑term trading.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TAK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Robust Late-Stage Pipeline
Takeda’s pipeline includes six late‑stage therapies projected to reach peak sales of $20 billion by 2030‑31. These first‑in‑class and best‑in‑class candidates span neuroscience, rare diseases, and oncology, and the company expects up to $20 billion in annual revenue from the resulting drug approvals.
Strong Earnings Growth
Takeda’s earnings per share have consistently outperformed analyst expectations, and the company’s earnings are forecast to grow at approximately 19.9% per year. This growth rate surpasses the projected earnings growth of the broader U.S. market.
Corporate Efficiency Gains
The company’s ongoing restructuring aims to generate over ¥200 billion ($1.3 billion) in annual gross savings by FY2028. These savings are intended to fund upcoming drug launches and offset pipeline investment costs.
Market Outperformance
Over the past 12 months, Takeda’s stock has gained 32.7%, outperforming the broader U.S. market and maintaining a stable position within its twelve‑month range.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TAK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.64
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$12.99
+28.1% from the low
52-Week High
$18.89
-11.9% from the high
1 Month
-9.02%
3 Month
-6.15%
YTD
+6.5%
1 Year
+10.5%
3Y CAGR
-0.8%
5Y CAGR
-0.3%
10Y CAGR
-3.7%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TAK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.2x
vs 10.4x median
-98% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.0%
vs +9.2% median
-24% below peer median
Net Margin
2.6%
vs 19.2% median
-87% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TAK TAK Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited | $52.6B | 0.2x | +7.0% | 2.6% | Buy | — |
NVO NVO Novo Nordisk A/S | $203.5B | 2.1x | +9.5% | 37.2% | Buy | +2.6% |
AZN AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $283.0B | 17.7x | +9.5% | 17.2% | Buy | +15.6% |
SNY SNY Sanofi | $104.3B | 10.3x | +4.6% | 16.7% | Buy | +15.8% |
NVS NVS Novartis AG | $277.4B | 16.6x | +5.0% | 24.1% | Hold | -3.0% |
GSK GSK GSK plc | $101.6B | 10.4x | +9.2% | 19.2% | Hold | +3.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TAK Dividend and Capital Return
TAK returns 4.3% total yield, led by a 3.62% dividend. Buybacks add another 0.6%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.6%
Dividend Yield
3.62%
Payout Ratio
2.8%
How TAK Splits Its Return
Div 3.62%
Dividend 3.62%Buybacks 0.6%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$94.22
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.2%
5Y Div CAGR
-6.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$51.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
3.1B
Approx. Share Reduction
97.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.2B
At 97.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.30 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.60 | -3.3% | — | — |
| 2024 | $0.62 | -1.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.63 | -4.6% | 5.3% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.66 | -17.9% | 52.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
6 questionsTAK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 6 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 1 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $2050 and the bull case is $14084.
02Is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) stock overvalued in 2026?
TAK trades at 0.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TAK in 2026 are: (1) Pipeline & R&D Risks — Takeda’s long‑term growth hinges on its R&D pipeline, which requires substantial spending. (2) Patent Expirations & Generic Competition — Key drugs face patent expirations that expose Takeda to generic competition. (3) Volatile Earnings & Forecast Accuracy — Takeda has exhibited earnings volatility over the past 20 years, with periods of decline. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TAK will report consensus revenue of $4.80T (+7.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $46.49 (+29.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.13T in revenue.
05When does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) report its next earnings?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-13. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.08 and revenue of $7.2B. Over recent quarters, TAK has beaten EPS estimates 64% of the time.
06How much free cash flow does Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited generate?
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) generated $956.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 21.3%. TAK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.6% yield) and share repurchases ($51.9B TTM).