Upside case
Bull case
$248+34.9%
SCCO would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 9x more generous than today's 26x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
30
analysts
3 bullish · 12 bearish · 30 covering SCCO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
15
Sell
12
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$156
-15.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$84 – $248
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
30
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
26.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $151.9B
SCCO price targets
Three scenarios for where SCCO stock could go
Current
~$184
Confidence
57 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $184
Bear
$84
Base
$215
Bull
$248
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$215+16.8%
At 30x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$84-54.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push SCCO down roughly 54% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Southern Copper Corporation
SCCO · NYSEBasic MaterialsCopperDecember year-end
Southern Copper Corporation is one of the world's largest integrated copper producers, operating mines, smelters, and refineries primarily in Peru and Mexico. It generates revenue primarily from copper sales (roughly 80% of revenue), with additional contributions from molybdenum, zinc, silver, and other byproducts. The company's key advantage is its exceptionally low-cost production profile — driven by large-scale, long-life mines with high ore grades — which provides resilience through commodity price cycles.
Market Cap
$151.9B
Revenue TTM
$13.4B
Net Income TTM
$4.3B
Net Margin
32.3%
SCCO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.22/$1.11
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.35/$1.25
Revenue
$3.4B/$3.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.58/$1.54
Revenue
$3.9B/$3.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.92/$1.88
Revenue
$4.3B/$4.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.22/$1.11 | +9.9% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +0.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.35/$1.25 | +8.0% | $3.4B/$3.2B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.58/$1.54 | +2.6% | $3.9B/$3.7B | +4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.92/$1.88 | +2.1% | $4.3B/$4.0B | +7.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$15.5B
+15.5% YoY
FY2
$17.0B
+9.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$5.99
+15.7% YoY
FY2
$6.12
+2.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.4B
FCF Margin: 25.5%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SCCO beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
SCCO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $13.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Copper
74.8%
+14.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Europe
26.9%
+17.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Copper is the largest disclosed segment at 74.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 14.6% YoY.
Europe is the largest reported region at 26.9%, up 17.0% YoY.
SCCO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $106 — implies -37.9% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
37.9%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SCCO
35.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+39% premium
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SCCO
35.1x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
+53% premium
vs SCCO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.1x
vs
5Y Average
21.0x
+67% premium
Forward PE
26.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+36%
Basic Materials
15.4x
+69%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.1x
S&P 500
25.2x
+39%
Basic Materials
22.9x
+53%
5Y Avg
21.0x
+67%
PEG Ratio
1.68x
S&P 500
1.75x
-4%
Basic Materials
1.22x
+38%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.7x
S&P 500
15.3x
+29%
Basic Materials
11.4x
+73%
5Y Avg
11.6x
+70%
Price/FCF
44.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
+108%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+61%
5Y Avg
23.6x
+88%
Price/Sales
11.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+261%
Basic Materials
2.0x
+476%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+88%
Dividend Yield
1.61%
S&P 500
1.88%
-14%
Basic Materials
1.37%
+18%
5Y Avg
4.15%
-61%
| Metric | SCCO | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SCCO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 26.0x | 19.1x+36% | 15.4x+69% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.1x | 25.2x+39% | 22.9x+53% | 21.0x+67% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.68x | 1.75x | 1.22x+38% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.7x | 15.3x+29% | 11.4x+73% | 11.6x+70% |
| Price/FCF | 44.3x | 21.3x+108% | 27.5x+61% | 23.6x+88% |
| Price/Sales | 11.3x | 3.1x+261% | 2.0x+476% | 6.0x+88% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.61% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 4.15% |
SCCO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSCCO Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
SCCO generates $3.4B in free cash flow at a 25.5% margin — 38.6% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 1.6% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$13.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+17.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
56.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
52.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
32.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$5.17
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.4B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
25.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
38.6%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
21.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.3B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.9× FCF
~0.9 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
42.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.6%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$2.96
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
57.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
826M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSCCO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Commodity Price Volatility
SCCO’s earnings are tightly linked to copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver prices. A sustained drop in copper prices can materially hit revenue and profitability, and even low operational costs may not fully offset the impact, forcing the company to curtail or modify mining operations.
High Risk
Valuation Overvaluation
The stock trades at high earnings multiples and above historical averages, suggesting a potential valuation correction. With a projected two‑year production trough and project delays, multiple compression could erode the current upside.
Medium
Operational & Geopolitical Risks
Operating mainly in Peru and Mexico exposes SCCO to economic and political instability, currency swings, and changing mining regulations. Expansion projects carry industrial accident risks, slope stability issues, and tailings storage failures, while community and environmental scrutiny can delay permits.
Medium
Production Decline & Ore Grade Depletion
SCCO faces potential production declines in coming years due to ore depletion and lower grades, with few identified catalysts to offset this trend. This could compress margins as unit costs rise and volumes fall.
Lower
Tailings Storage Failure
Failures or integrity issues at tailings storage facilities could cause environmental harm, operational disruptions, legal liabilities, and reputational damage, impacting both cash flow and regulatory standing.
Lower
Fuel, Electricity & Water Price Volatility
SCCO requires large amounts of fuel, electricity, and water, making it vulnerable to price spikes and supply interruptions from third‑party providers, which could increase operating costs.
Lower
US‑China Trade Friction
Potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China could dampen global copper demand, tightening market conditions and pressuring SCCO’s revenue streams.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SCCO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Structural Copper Demand Surge
Copper is projected to enter a structural deficit by 2026 as electrification and AI-driven technologies accelerate demand. AI alone could boost copper needs by 50% by 2040, driving consumption higher than new supply.
Low-Cost Production Advantage
Southern Copper’s net cash costs fell to $0.42/lb in Q3 2025, well below peer levels, positioning it as a leading low-cost producer and enhancing margin resilience.
Pipeline‑Driven Output Expansion
The company’s growth pipeline—including Tia Maria, Los Chancas, Michiquillay, and El Arco—could lift output by over 50% by 2030, expanding production capacity significantly.
Byproduct Profitability Leverage
Strategic exploitation of zinc, silver, and molybdenum byproducts boosts profitability and further reduces net cash costs, adding a valuable revenue stream.
Strong Financial Growth & Returns
SCCO recorded 28% YoY net income growth and 17% revenue growth, with operating and net margins of 52.2% and 32.3% respectively, while maintaining a 31‑year dividend track record.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SCCO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$183.91
52W Range Position
71%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$85.72
+114.5% from the low
52-Week High
$223.89
-17.9% from the high
1 Month
+4.10%
3 Month
-8.06%
YTD
+23.7%
1 Year
+105.2%
3Y CAGR
+34.8%
5Y CAGR
+21.5%
10Y CAGR
+21.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SCCO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
26.0x
vs 15.4x median
+69% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+15.5%
vs +9.2% median
+69% above peer median
Net Margin
32.3%
vs 20.1% median
+61% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SCC SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $151.9B | 26.0x | +15.5% | 32.3% | Hold | -15.0% |
FCX FCX Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | $87.5B | 22.5x | +5.3% | 10.3% | Buy | +10.0% |
TEC TECK Teck Resources Limited | $29.9B | 13.3x | +9.2% | 14.9% | Buy | +4.0% |
HBM HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $9.5B | 15.4x | +18.3% | 25.8% | Buy | -56.9% |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
BHP BHP BHP Group Limited | $214.1B | 16.7x | -12.1% | 20.1% | Hold | -15.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SCCO Dividend and Capital Return
SCCO returns 1.7% total yield, led by a 1.73% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
1.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
1.73%
Payout Ratio
57.3%
How SCCO Splits Its Return
Div 1.73%
Dividend 1.73%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$2.96
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-3.6%
5Y Div CAGR
16.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
826M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.99 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.09 | +49.8% | 0.0% | 2.1% |
| 2024 | $2.06 | -47.5% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| 2023 | $3.93 | +13.9% | 0.0% | 4.8% |
| 2022 | $3.45 | +9.5% | 0.0% | 6.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsSCCO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 12 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $156, implying -15.0% from the current price of $184. The bear case scenario is $84 and the bull case is $248.
02What is the SCCO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SCCO is $156 based on 30 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $178 (-3.2% from today), and the low-end target is $133 (-27.7%). The base case model target is $215.
03Is Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) stock overvalued in 2026?
SCCO trades at 26.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SCCO in 2026 are: (1) Commodity Price Volatility — SCCO’s earnings are tightly linked to copper, molybdenum, zinc, and silver prices. (2) Valuation Overvaluation — The stock trades at high earnings multiples and above historical averages, suggesting a potential valuation correction. (3) Operational & Geopolitical Risks — Operating mainly in Peru and Mexico exposes SCCO to economic and political instability, currency swings, and changing mining regulations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Southern Copper Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SCCO will report consensus revenue of $15.5B (+15.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $5.99 (+15.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.0B in revenue.
06When does Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SCCO is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Southern Copper Corporation generate?
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) generated $3.4B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 25.5%. SCCO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).