TFSL trades 18.9% below Wall Street's consensus target of $20.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes TFSL achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 46.7x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of October 3, 2026, TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $20.00, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $16.82, this represents a potential upside of +18.9%. The company has a market capitalization of $4.72B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $20.00 to a high of $20.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $20.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, TFSL trades at a trailing P/E of 52.6x and forward P/E of 46.7x. The forward PEG ratio of 35.97 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -1.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $5.90, with bear and bull scenarios of $3.71 and $7.77 respectively. Model confidence stands at 44/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WAFDWaFd, Inc. | $2.3B | $30.80 | $36.00 | +16.9% | Hold | 9.4x | 11 |
 HOMBHome Bancshares, Inc. | $5.8B | $28.67 | $33.25 | +16.0% | Hold | 11.4x | 19 |
 FMAOFarmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc. | $489M | $35.49 | $36.00 | +1.4% | Hold | 11.2x | 2 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.7B | $51.53 | $56.67 | +10.0% | Hold | 12.3x | 10 |
 PFSIPennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | $3.2B | $62.00 | $89.80 | +44.8% | Buy | 11.7x | 21 |
 RKTRocket Companies, Inc. | $33.0B | $11.70 | $18.63 | +59.2% | Hold | 19.0x | 27 |
 UWMCUWM Holdings Corporation | $196M | $1.26 | $2.90 | +130.2% | Hold | 6.6x | 15 |
 GHLDGuild Holdings Company | $439M | $20.01 | $17.63 | -11.9% | Hold | 10.2x | 6 |
 FNFFidelity National Financial, Inc. | $10.6B | $39.26 | $56.00 | +42.6% | Buy | 7.6x | 17 |
 FAFFirst American Financial Corporation | $6.4B | $62.49 | $83.00 | +32.8% | Buy | 8.9x | 15 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TFSL stock.
TFS Financial Corporation (TFSL) has a consensus 12-month price target of $20, implying 18.9% upside from $16.82. The 4 analysts covering TFSL see moderate appreciation potential.
TFSL has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $20 implies 18.9% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 46.7222x, TFSL trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $20 (18.9% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $20 for TFSL, while the most conservative target is $20. The consensus of $20 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $8 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
TFSL is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month TFSL stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $20, with estimates ranging from $20 (bear case) to $20 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $6, with bear/bull scenarios of $4/$8.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TFSL's fair value at $6 (base case), with a bear case of $4 and bull case of $8. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 44/100.
TFSL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 46.7x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 52.6x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are optimistic on TFSL, with a "Hold" consensus rating and $20 price target (18.9% upside). 1 of 4 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TFSL analyst price targets range from $20 to $20, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $20 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $4-$8 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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