TRIN trades 7.1% above Wall Street's consensus target of $16.30.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes TRIN achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 8.4x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 7 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $16.30, based on estimates from 7 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $17.55, this represents a potential downside of -7.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.31B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $13.00 to a high of $17.50, representing a 28% spread in expectations. The median target of $17.00 aligns closely with the consensus average.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 5 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, TRIN trades at a trailing P/E of 9.0x and forward P/E of 8.4x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +19.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $15.83, with bear and bull scenarios of $9.97 and $20.86 respectively. Model confidence stands at 49/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ARCCAres Capital Corporation | $13.8B | $19.15 | $19.00 | -0.8% | Buy | 10.0x | 32 |
 GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc. | $3.2B | $12.45 | $14.50 | +16.5% | Buy | 9.0x | 12 |
 OBDCBlue Owl Capital Corporation | $5.4B | $10.95 | $13.00 | +18.7% | Buy | 8.4x | 13 |
 FSCOFS Credit Opportunities Corp. | $1.1B | $5.27 | — | — | — | — | — |
 CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc. | $780M | $11.22 | $12.00 | +7.0% | Hold | 8.0x | 7 |
 SLRCSLR Investment Corp. | $642M | $11.77 | $12.50 | +6.2% | Buy | 9.0x | 15 |
 HTGCHercules Capital, Inc. | $3.2B | $16.97 | $15.50 | -8.7% | Buy | 8.8x | 31 |
 TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. | $200M | $4.92 | $5.00 | +1.6% | Hold | 5.5x | 12 |
 HRZNHorizon Technology Finance Corporation | $231M | $4.61 | $5.00 | +8.5% | Hold | 6.8x | 22 |
 PFLTPennantPark Floating Rate Capital Ltd. | $697M | $7.02 | $9.00 | +28.2% | Buy | 6.6x | 11 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TRIN stock.
Wall Street's consensus price target for TRIN is $16.3, -7.1% from its current price of $17.55. The below-market target from 7 analysts suggests limited near-term appreciation.
TRIN has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 7 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 5 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $16.3 implies -7.1% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 8.4387x, TRIN trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $16.3 implies -7.1% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $17.5 for TRIN, while the most conservative target is $13. The consensus of $16.3 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $21 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
TRIN is moderately covered, with 7 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 5 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month TRIN stock forecast based on 7 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $16.3, with estimates ranging from $13 (bear case) to $17.5 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $16, with bear/bull scenarios of $10/$21.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TRIN's fair value at $16 (base case), with a bear case of $10 and bull case of $21. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 49/100.
TRIN trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8.4x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 9.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on TRIN, with 1 Sell ratings and a price target of $16.3 (-7.1% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TRIN analyst price targets range from $13 to $17.5, a 28% moderate spread showing some variance in outlooks. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $16.3 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $10-$21 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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